EurAnalysis | Page 3186 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #63,701
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:55pm Dec 18, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting D2tz
The problem for a day trader like me, in USD/CAD is that the spread between buy and sell represents nearly 4% of the daily fluctuation. It's getting quite hard to close before the EoD and stay postive especially considering the swaps too
i completely agree. that is why i stopped trading spot and only trade futures. there is no spread, just a bid/ask between buyers and sellers.you are paying them huge commissions as a % of trade value to make a market for you. OTC brokers are stealing from you. literally.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,702
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:17pm Dec 18, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting PipTrapper
E/Y at 1.34? Sure you don't mean E/U?

Anyway, assuming you mean E/U, I think the Euro will go where the fiscal cliff negotiations go. If there is a deal, we get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. Of course a further break upwards in the last couple of weeks of December, as I said earlier, could create enough momentum to finish the measured move of this technical bull train. However, come January, this should all get reversed.

If the fiscal cliff deal fails, then it's down for everything... equities, Aussie, Loonie, Cable, Fiber, Gold, Oil and the kitchen sink, as the USD gains thunderous strength from safe haven flows.

My account is not Islamic. I pay and collect (mostly collect) swaps every day.

Do you also collect positief swaps on EUR/USD?
I only get positief swaps on AUD,NZD,TRY becasue they have an high amount of interest.

Do you have a 'special' account because you trade alot or do you have a relatieve good broker in terms of swaps?
  • #63,703
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:35pm Dec 18, 2012 2:35pm
Interesting Perspective. Since I comes as Java I dont have a link to post instead of:

Looking at the Euro Road Map (16-wk M/A with Bollinger Band overlay, 200-wk modified Senkou Span) We use the 16-2k M/A because the average currency cycle is 15.5 weeks according to the cycle gurus. We've broken above the +2.0 Bollinger (1.3179) and we're in highly elevated territory - too dangerous to chase unless you are really on your toes. The +3.0 Bollinger is located at 1.3375, the top of our modified (long term) Ichi cloud at 1.3510 and the 200-wk M/A at 1.3520. Any one of these technical indicators has the power to stop a move in its tracks.
We have not closed a week above the +3.0 16-wk M/A Bollinger since the Euro was introduced. We had three occasion where we pressed through and closed on the +3.0, May 2003, April 2006, and December 2006. On those three occasions we pressed 250-350 pips higher over the following 2-4 weeks. In each instance the 200-wk M/A was significantly below spot. On each instance, spot was above our modified 200-wk. modified Senkou span Ichi cloud.
We've remained below the 200-wk M/A for the past 13 months and the closest we have been to that average over that time frame has been -330 pts (which = 1.3190) until this week. So unless we get fresh impetus to take us significantly higher (which could emanate from thin liquidity & predatory accounts) we're already in rarified atmosphere for EUR/USD strength. The last time we broke above the 200-wk M/A in October 2011 we broke above the Ichi cloud top by 40 pips and relinquished that level the following week.
It is going to be extremely difficult to get beyond 1.3560 (Ichi top +40 pips) and the maximum bulls can hope for is 1.3770/1.2870 (200-wk M/A +250/350 pips) On the downside, we've seen pull back's from +3.0 readings from as little as 5 big figs (1.3020) to 20 big figs, corrective action either bouncing off the 16-wk M/A itself (1.2950) or the -2.0/-2.5 Bolli band (1.2635/1.2735) Strategically it's difficult to encourage fresh EUR/USD purchases above the +2.0 16-wk M/A Bollinger. [email protected]

Copyright (c) 2012 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,704
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:41pm Dec 18, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Interesting Perspective. Since I comes as Java I dont have a link to post instead of:

Looking at the Euro Road Map (16-wk M/A with Bollinger Band overlay, 200-wk modified Senkou Span) We use the 16-2k M/A because the average currency cycle is 15.5 weeks according to the cycle gurus. We've broken above the +2.0 Bollinger (1.3179) and we're in highly elevated territory - too dangerous to chase unless you are really on your toes. The +3.0 Bollinger is located at 1.3375, the top of our modified (long...
My oh my. Too technical for my taste
Is that from your oanda news feed?
  • #63,705
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:59pm Dec 18, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
E/Y at 1.34? Sure you don't mean E/U?

Anyway, assuming you mean E/U, I think the Euro will go where the fiscal cliff negotiations go. If there is a deal, we get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. Of course a further break upwards in the last couple of weeks of December, as I said earlier, could create enough momentum to finish the measured move of this technical bull train. However, come January, this should all get reversed.

If the fiscal cliff deal fails, then it's down for everything... equities, Aussie, Loonie, Cable, Fiber, Gold,...
Islamic?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #63,706
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:02pm Dec 18, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting the redlion
Islamic?
Islamic means that there is no interest
Something about Islam forbidding loans against interest. Which makes me wonder if they have mortgages in Islamic countries. Hmmm
  • #63,707
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:03pm Dec 18, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting the redlion
Islamic?
here this will enlighten you
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking
  • #63,708
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:09pm Dec 18, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey wingou. Sorry to hear about your margin call. It sucks and it always will.
As EuroTraderJD said... as long as you learned something from it, you are ahead of the game.

My break even point was fast approaching at 1.3270 so I closed my eyes and hit the buy button at 1.3198 with a massive position. Why? Because when you get a powerful breakout like that in the last 2 weeks of December... especially when the majority of retail traders are short, then undoubtedly there is going to be a massive short squeeze. I learned that lesson many years ago....
i am buying usd where ever its possible.i am positioning my trades and when the break comes i will recover with interest.and my trades underwater by about 3.8% and my uncle point is about 12 to 15 %.oh by the way PT dont u think ur riding two horses,could be very dangerous to the mindset.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #63,709
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:12pm Dec 18, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting drzakir123
i am buying usd where ever its possible.i am positioning my trades and when the break comes i will recover with interest.and my trades underwater by about 3.8% and my uncle point is about 12 to 15 %.oh by the way PT dont u think ur riding two horses,could be very dangerous to the mindset.regards
No I'm only riding one horse. I just tied his tail to a tree so he doesn't jump off the cliff
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,710
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:14pm Dec 18, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
No I'm only riding one horse. I just tied his tail to a tree so he doesn't jump off the cliff
  • #63,711
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:23pm Dec 18, 2012 3:23pm
Well, my patience has run out.
Closed Usd/cad with a small loss.
Going to scalp the heck out of this pair
  • #63,712
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:24pm Dec 18, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting D2tz
Well, my patience has run out.
Closed Usd/cad with a small loss.
Going to scalp the heck out of this pair
If the pair doesn't break 0.9870 by day end, them i'm short until US session tomorrow
  • #63,713
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:27pm Dec 18, 2012 3:27pm
may god has mercy on this horse tail.
Quoting PipTrapper
No I'm only riding one horse. I just tied his tail to a tree so he doesn't jump off the cliff
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #63,714
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:33pm Dec 18, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting drzakir123
may god has mercy on this horse tail.
DrZakir, couldn't help notice your signature.
Maybe you can help me understand... Are mortgages and loans non-existant in Islamic banking?
  • #63,715
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:43pm Dec 18, 2012 3:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
My break even point was fast approaching at 1.3270 so I closed my eyes and hit the buy button at 1.3198 with a massive position.
Nice subterfuge, PT.

I'm sure the market makers have taken note, and are saying to themselves, "If even PT has gone long, it must be time to take the market back down."

But as I say, nice subterfuge.

Keep holdin' them shorts!
Student of the Markets
  • #63,716
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:46pm Dec 18, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting D2tz
My oh my. Too technical for my taste
Is that from your oanda news feed?
Yes it is
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,717
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:02pm Dec 18, 2012 4:02pm
s-range 19-Dec-12

1.3229
1.3207

will update xls later.
  • #63,718
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:20pm Dec 18, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
No I'm only riding one horse. I just tied his tail to a tree so he doesn't jump off the cliff
Well said

My take:

I am short at 1.3109, and looking to add again around 1.3280 area

Sure, price moved up against expectations yesterday; however a 100 odd pip drawdown on a longer term EU trade is not excessive given the nature of this beast.

My thinking is that some out there are providing lots of liquidity to fulfill all these buys that are driving the price higher. These "some" can't be fools because they are selling to the buys, and I would not expect them to settle for a loss for all their trouble.

So I am holding out for a healthy profit on my shorts, and will not buy at these crazy prices.
  • #63,719
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:29pm Dec 18, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting dchristi
Nice subterfuge, PT.

I'm sure the market makers have taken note, and are saying to themselves, "If even PT has gone long, it must be time to take the market back down."

But as I say, nice subterfuge.

Keep holdin' them shorts!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,720
  • Edited 4:49pm Dec 18, 2012 4:39pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting msood
Well said

My take:

I am short at 1.3109, and looking to add again around 1.3280 area

Sure, price moved up against expectations yesterday; however a 100 odd pip drawdown on a longer term EU trade is not excessive given the nature of this beast.

My thinking is that some out there are providing lots of liquidity to fulfill all these buys that are driving the price higher. These "some" can't be fools because they are selling to the buys, and I would not expect them to settle for a loss for all their trouble.

So I am holding out...
I only bought on a small pullback after the 1.3200 barrier was pierced. At that point I knew the stops were going to be run over and I also knew that psychologically, retail euro shorts were going to capitulate and cover. All that equals a nice pop, and we sure got it. Now that I've locked in at BE, once Mr. Market maker decides it's time to slam the lever into reserve, I'll be waiting there like PacMac on a power pill

Inserted Video


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DailyFX-SSI.jpeg Size: 20 KB


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.60 as approximately 28% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -2.76; 27% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 19.8% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 3.5% lower than yesterday and 2.6% above levels seen last week. Open interest is 1.9% lower than yesterday and 5.9% below its monthly average. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are short gives signal that the EURUSD may continue higher. Current SSI is higher than yesterday and lower from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further mixed trading bias.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
16 traders viewing now