EURUSD

i mean if closed above i may add another long here

what do u think?

for the road

Hi kokopelli,

Yes I use TLs Fibs previous highs and lows to define S and R levels. Also use patterns and EW, but that is a different ball game.

I line up trend lines from the past, and use them to predict near future bounces.

And I re-create a graph on the platform using appropriate lines for posting pictures, otherwise my pictures would be like SteveWalkers

Hope it helps,


Gray

Thanks mate... Much appreciated... I have surely a few levels that require attention... The position is against my general view to be honest, only playing the early take profits scenario...

unable to mimic yours. 319x ish is the best i can do.

Went and looked at some of SteveWalker's charts...holy sh*t...you ain't kiddin...

He is a good trader, scalper mainly. Don't be scared by his charts, after you've been trading a while you'll understand them.

whenever new york session, take it to a higher high or lower low, it's very rare to see price action have such volatility to move more than 40 pips if we take 1.3220-3180. technically, it's pointless to watch pa moves, but generally its a not bad time to add a position for retracement as price starts to slow down, the better time can be during early asia's open hours as price may tend to test r or s. Lone us session is well known for its monotonous consolidation and some minor profit taking. Unless in times of major news like fomc etc.

Normally after a long candle, a doji is not a sign of reversal, it's mainly consolidation. A bull candle followed by a doji in green is strength of bull. A bear candle followed by a doji in bear is a sign of strength of bear. A doji in red is a weakness in bull, a doji in green after a long bear is weakness of bear. A doji without a clear sign of body is indecision but generally favor current trend outlook, i am referring to price action of breakout or what we can see on the daily chart for now.

After 1.3125 was taken out, the near possible short was 1.3170 region as our most highest high after 1.20, but price was consolidated around there and failure to pull back to even 1.3125 area, was it stalled at previous recent top @ 1.3140 before it dropped to 1.265* area. So technically, we have a resistance turn support on that area on Monday and not at the 1.3125 level.

After price broke 1.3125, my projections of this bull run should end or slow down from or @ 1.3240 area, and should start to retrace. However, failure to conquer the previous wick area, will just continue to send this even higher. The wick area is 1.3185 area of our previous wick which i have circle it in red esclipe, that area is important for retracement to move down.

The other few levels to watch are 1.3125/20, 1.3040, 1.2983 zone, as profit target from shorts on 1.3220/40 region from my point of view only. The underlying trendline below is also important for bear action to comes in, another pin bar off the tl, can have a higher hi or double top scenario should the price be rejected from 1.3185 area or higher from 1.3200.

In a strong trend, option barrier are actually not a good thing to believe nor trust in, its more than likely to be crack then received a rejection off the offer area in a bull run. Watching Pa will make better decision. I favor place sell stops below any pin bars or doji on daily of selling support to prevent catching top scenario as well, early entries may look good, but still fighting trend, as we can see that on this leg up of bull run from the 1.2875/80 area, there wasn't even a clear bearish engulfing candle that overlapped any bull price action, most bearish candle ended up with shadow or a body smaller than the previous bull candle that's supporting this underlying bull trend.

fundamentally, US data may or may not make sense at all, whether it's good or bad, pa can just move in one direction in us session. German Ifo Business Climate will be an important data which may influence the current trend momentum. If its bearish and takes out the asia's support on wednesday, we are likely to head for retracement. Else failing to breach asia's support, price will just move higher in trend.

The higher tf in weekly and monthly are generally heading up. the bear need a news trigger to bring the price down, else rally will just continue until few levels of support is breached.

My bias is that as long 1.3185 can be contained, but favorably below 1.3170 to prevent another r turn s scenario from daily chart, i favor price to move down to 1.3125, then 1.3040, then 1.2983 area. However, 1.2983 is very less likely in near term, unless trend starts to change. The pull back to 1.3000, if received well support, may continue price to move higher into 1.3485 area to challenge this year's high region but we may only see this takes place by next year, if volatility is not that strong.

The best way of catching movements is breakout point, of buying resistance and selling supports, buying on dip may catch more pips but is slower to see pa reacts and may not happen if dip's pin bar was taken out as selling support, fast movements still comes from breakout.

U ever tried hedging? if u have 1.3185 sell, why not a buy stop above 1.3190? hedging can be done few ways, 2 that i may use is.

1) sell limit/live rate @ 1.3185, with a buy stop above high by few pips like 1.3190, and cut off sell order if buy stop is triggered.
2) sell limit/live rate @ 1.3185, with a buy stop above high by few pips like 1.3190, but do not cut off sell order, but until price is slowed down, i will take profit of buy order, and replace with another sell at high again to move back down. to breakeven 1.3185 or breakeven overall balance at mid point.

risk involved is that if u use 1. u get a top scenario, sell was cut, buy went up, and then reversed sharply, if u don't place a stop loss, u may end up on the reverse side of the train.

2 is that u may not necessary move back to previous breakout point, but breakeven is more than likely. It's dependable on how the trader manage his balance and trades, mainly on fear, greed and decisiveness. 2 because of closing positions, u may not necessary ride on ur winner if this turns into a reversal.

risk involved for 2 is still the same, move up and move down sharply, u may need to decide when to kill off the buy stop if its a failed attempt.

first this...
and then, this...



On a more serious note, I've noticed that you might be pyramiding into your winning trades...no?
I've been trying to come up with a systematic way to add to a winning position...care to input your 2 cents?



and then, this...
and then...extracted bin!!!
edit: like yesterday's incident with you, me, cdndollar, iron man...

G...look at my reference points (1st and 3rd dots on the TL) on this H4 chart...
The weird thing is...I would not instinctively put the connecting points there...

Thank you very much mate, I am more bullish than bearish, I couldn't enter Long s today since price took off above 1.3150s and never returned and just couldn't around 1.3170s. I am only playing for some early profit taking before christmas nothing more. I have as mentioned SL @1.3260 and am watching whether we can crack 1.3185-1.3190 area. If not will close obviously. Thank you very much, a brilliant summary again.

Another thing I noticed: You mentioned in your post which posted over the weekend, asia low on sunday would be a clear sign, it was around 1.3150 - slightly above. I couldn't catch it over there, with yesterday's PA and today's PA it just wasn't possible for me. We haven't broken that low since then... Brilliant mate...! Thank you a bunch...!

Steve knows his s#!t. We're not related, I guess I'm the loud Walker and he's the quiet one. But like the quiet ones, when they talk, listen up.

@Gator

Perhaps this is better...as in how many times price behaves around the TL???

Here's what u can or may do, if u are worried of entering long too early or ur long may not work out, as candle was bearish before closing, visually in 1 hour/4hour, give it sometime don't rush, it's better to be late by few pips then early if u are predicting in trend rather than scalps. If we have 1.3144 as monday's asia support, and u favor a uptrend, wait for a higher lo bounce. the minute u observed that a higher lo was anticipated, with a close like bullish sign, as we can depict from 1 hour chart we have a pin bar on 1.3157 area, u can do a new hour buy from there body area, with stop below there or monday's asia support @ 40 region. or when price is diving into 1.3157, use a buy stop around 1.316* region when pa in smaller tf are showing bullish closing for bids/bounce so technically if today's was bearish 1.3157 was seen, and it keep dropping into 1.3150/40 etc, ur long position wont be triggered as its a buy stop, not a buy limit. U entered later but its safer with more pips to lose ofc. But sharp entries are hard sometimes, as very few could long 13157 with few pips stop, and thank that it was the lowest of the day.

. So u know there's a demand, and place ur stop below there, and u may even hedge with a sell stop if price meant to go down.

Always keep in mind, price can go up and go down.

Bullsh*t...in my FF world...there is one and only one Walker...he's the one that care...


(no mo)

put a Andrews pitchfork on it

True, today's PA was pretty sharp mate, or I was bloddy slow. I noticed the HL but then... My stupidity nothing else. I think I still have the old habits of trading stocks, I never buy a stock unless it hits my buy level, this is bloddy FX. What the fook was I thinking??!!?? I had it all planned, could just not hit the green button. Anyway, I will live another day Thanks mate and I do appreciate you taking time for newbees like me. Enjoy your time over there and unless I see you before Friday, I wish you a merry christmas and a happy new year. We are going to Boston for Xmas and new year. enough with the cripple

Hey, I'm a lover, not a hater. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

chart please...
pitchfork doesn't make sense on my chart...the way I apply it...it just doesn't look right...