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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,681
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:16am Dec 18, 2012 11:16am
yay my TP of 50 pips triggered at 111.15.
i think the price is going to hang on the daily R1.
  • #63,682
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:33am Dec 18, 2012 11:33am
Quoting redteamgo
risk on! no real market response to that though.
its already up 50 pips since the open of the NYSE - I wonder how much of that was due to "Buying the rumor...."

Either way, only another 50 pips to go to hit the May 1 high at 1.3283 with the years high 200 pips higher -easily possible in these thin markets IF that's what the Big Dogs want....


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  • #63,683
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:33am Dec 18, 2012 11:33am
Quoting wingou
get out of my short, lost 80% of my capital on this medium/long term trade. i was positive when i was trading intraday without trying to understand the moves, and my first try with mid term fundamentals trading is a fail (but I have no choice as i'm working :/)
Will take the time to think on what is the best option now...

GL to all



Edit : btw I hate Ben
Hey wingou. Sorry to hear about your margin call. It sucks and it always will.
As EuroTraderJD said... as long as you learned something from it, you are ahead of the game.

My break even point was fast approaching at 1.3270 so I closed my eyes and hit the buy button at 1.3198 with a massive position. Why? Because when you get a powerful breakout like that in the last 2 weeks of December... especially when the majority of retail traders are short, then undoubtedly there is going to be a massive short squeeze. I learned that lesson many years ago. I saw this coming but my short Euro bias put me in denial of the danger. Now the last 5 months of my time are in the garbage but luckily (actually via proper MM, not luck) I have come out of it unscathed... for now.

This long trade is strictly a technical one. My target is 1.34xx, but then one never knows. That's why I set my SL at BE. Now I am looking forward to taking profit on this long position and shorting the top... when it arrives.

Caveat: I love these caveats. I want to make sure that anyone reading my post fully understands that I am still a USD bull and a Euro Bear. I don't have much faith in my long E/U position at 1.3198 and that is why it is locked at BE. This sucker may have already reached a top. Macro-economic fundamentals do not support this move... not even in one's wildest imaginations.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,684
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:36am Dec 18, 2012 11:36am
Quoting D2tz
Adding to my long USD/CAD position. Once 0.9850-70 clears, to the moon
Yep. I'm looking forward to that also. Might not happen too quickly though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,685
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:46am Dec 18, 2012 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep. I'm looking forward to that also. Might not happen too quickly though.
I hope I'm not being unreasonable to be expecting par by week's end
after all, it's just 1 wild day away from becoming reality
  • #63,686
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:48am Dec 18, 2012 11:48am
Quoting D2tz
I hope I'm not being unreasonable to be expecting par by week's end
I think that may be a bit too optimistic, but hey... one can hope. I'll sure as heck be happy about it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,687
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:02pm Dec 18, 2012 12:02pm
Guys this is your guide. Green pips for all.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...35#post6263035
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #63,688
  • Dec 18, 2012 12:04pm Dec 18, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey wingou. Sorry to hear about your margin call. It sucks and it always will.
As EuroTraderJD said... as long as you learned something from it, you are ahead of the game.

My break even point was fast approaching at 1.3270 so I closed my eyes and hit the buy button at 1.3198 with a massive position. Why? Because when you get a powerful breakout like that in the last 2 weeks of December... especially when the majority of retail traders are short, then undoubtedly there is going to be a massive short squeeze. I learned that lesson many years...
Hi PT, do u expect EY target 1.34 this week/month? Or your lock without timeframe, if so is your account Islamic?
  • #63,689
  • Edited 1:06pm Dec 18, 2012 12:17pm | Edited 1:06pm
Inserted Video


Boring times for fx traders.
  • #63,690
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:09pm Dec 18, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting magicgate
Hi PT, do u expect EY target 1.34 this week/month? Or your lock without timeframe, if so is your account Islamic?
E/Y at 1.34? Sure you don't mean E/U?

Anyway, assuming you mean E/U, I think the Euro will go where the fiscal cliff negotiations go. If there is a deal, we get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. Of course a further break upwards in the last couple of weeks of December, as I said earlier, could create enough momentum to finish the measured move of this technical bull train. However, come January, this should all get reversed.

If the fiscal cliff deal fails, then it's down for everything... equities, Aussie, Loonie, Cable, Fiber, Gold, Oil and the kitchen sink, as the USD gains thunderous strength from safe haven flows.

My account is not Islamic. I pay and collect (mostly collect) swaps every day.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,691
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:14pm Dec 18, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting D2tz
http://youtu.be/LTnq268y2ms

Boring times for fx traders.
Yep... I concur. If this is the future of FX trading, then all I'll be doing from here forward is M5 and M15 scalping. All I need is a perfected system, but I'm already working on that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,692
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:22pm Dec 18, 2012 1:22pm
Could one get an Islamic account to hedge trades made in an interest yielding account and earn the interest (minus spread)
  • #63,693
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:23pm Dec 18, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting D2tz
Could one get an Islamic account to hedge trades made in an interest yielding account and earn the interest (minus spread)
I presume the cost of swap is added one sided on the spread?
  • #63,694
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:27pm Dec 18, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
E/Y at 1.34? Sure you don't mean E/U?

Anyway, assuming you mean E/U, I think the Euro will go where the fiscal cliff negotiations go. If there is a deal, we get a knee-jerk reaction to the upside. Of course a further break upwards in the last couple of weeks of December, as I said earlier, could create enough momentum to finish the measured move of this technical bull train. However, come January, this should all get reversed.

If the fiscal cliff deal fails, then it's down for everything... equities, Aussie, Loonie, Cable, Fiber, Gold,...
Yep, EU is correct, thank you for answer, as usual every year-end has unpredictable moves, but this 2012 end is tooooo sloooow.
Not sure but I counted once: Islamic accounts are cheaper for your trade system IMO
for me (have 3-10 trades per week) it's not comfortable with my broker
  • #63,695
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:38pm Dec 18, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep... I concur. If this is the future of FX trading, then all I'll be doing from here forward is M5 and M15 scalping. All I need is a perfected system, but I'm already working on that.
this is always an interesting topic of concern for traders. right now certain spreads are really drying up. however, imo, of all things, one thing that is certain is that there will always be a new crisis with plenty of volatility.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,696
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:39pm Dec 18, 2012 1:39pm
Can I ask to anybody who would know, why did gold and silver jumped down against dollar, and eur spiked up against the same usd?
  • #63,697
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:44pm Dec 18, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting builder
Can I ask to anybody who would know, why did gold and silver jumped down against dollar, and eur spiked up against the same usd?
Craziness
  • #63,698
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:49pm Dec 18, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting builder
Can I ask to anybody who would know, why did gold and silver jumped down against dollar, and eur spiked up against the same usd?
Liquidation of save haven assets. The reason: Everything is fixed.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,699
  • Edited 1:51pm Dec 18, 2012 1:49pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting builder
Can I ask to anybody who would know, why did gold and silver jumped down against dollar, and eur spiked up against the same usd?
Forex Live had a possible explanation below ... sounds as good as anything I could come up with in this crazy market ...Euro probably rallying with risk-on sentiment

Negative correlation now a positive correlation

Written by Jamie Coleman
December 18, 2012 at 18:26 GMT

For nearly a month now gold and the dollar have moved in lockstep.Can’t say for sure why but my guess is just the massive long position in gold being unwound after the yellow metal failed to rally as the dollar fell after the Fed’s latest experiment in QE.
If gold doesn’t rally on a falling dollar, gold longs understandably get nervous and sell. And that selling continues.
http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...xy-330x163.png
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #63,700
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:51pm Dec 18, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting redteamgo
this is always an interesting topic of concern for traders. right now certain spreads are really drying up. however, imo, of all things, one thing that is certain is that there will always be a new crisis with plenty of volatility.
The problem for a day trader like me, in USD/CAD is that the spread between buy and sell represents nearly 4% of the daily fluctuation. It's getting quite hard to close before the EoD and stay postive especially considering the swaps too
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