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Sonic R. System

  • #42,261
  • Dec 18, 2012 1:56am Dec 18, 2012 1:56am
Quoting traderathome
The term "head fake" is not coined by me. It is commonplace in markets. It refers to a move which passes previous H/Ls, looks like a possible breakout move, and turns out not to have been one. Such moves take place not because the market is itching for a breakout, but because the market is actually trying to get better prices on a position it is building for a move that will take place later, and in the opposite direction. If you look at historical PA on any pair, you will see often that before a really good run in one direction, there was first...
Thank you for explain .

My chart have doji in GU 4 chart. Wait GU short setup??? Let wait LO.
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Keep Simple...!
  • #42,262
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:03am Dec 18, 2012 2:03am
10 pips done. I"m going take a drink with my friends.
Quoting umbro
I'm sorry I cannot post a chart.
Entered at 1,31670. SL 1,31779. I need to make at least 10 pips.
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  • #42,263
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:16am Dec 18, 2012 2:16am
Market Comment Yen Pairs:

My H4 charts are starting to look like the current bar could end up "engulfing". Market might be turning on these. Short setups might form. Different time zone brokers have different H4 charts, so yours might or might not look the same, but take a look.

Example setup/possible trade attached.
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  • #42,264
  • Edited 2:45am Dec 18, 2012 2:31am | Edited 2:45am
EU Comment:

Asian mkt. moved it up a bit. Looks like been accumulating short position up there. Frankfurt Open mkt. looks to have sold off, too. And now, the same with the London mkt,....looks to be a selloff day. No special news, and any selloff day can actually be the day the market starts a reversal (what it won't do until it has sufficiently loaded up in advance for it, which might now be done?). US mkt looms in the wings; could manipulate prices back up? Could be an interesting day.

BTW, if things do change, and this USD pair starts to drop, RWL is about 200 pips from the highs yesterday. A nice bear swing.
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  • #42,265
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:40am Dec 18, 2012 2:40am
Quoting traderathome
Market Comment Yen Pairs:

My H4 charts are starting to look like the current bar could end up "engulfing". Market might be turning on these. Short setups might form. Different time zone brokers have different H4 charts, so yours might or might not look the same, but take a look.

Example setup/possible trade attached.
I don't have engulfing in either one at the close...
  • #42,266
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:48am Dec 18, 2012 2:48am
Quoting dafox1
I don't have engulfing in either one at the close...
EJ:

H4 still has over an hour to go with this broker....

If the market reverses with a vengeance, this (and maybe others) could end up looking like "Island Reversals". Speculative.
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  • #42,267
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:54am Dec 18, 2012 2:54am
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

H4 still has over an hour to go with this broker....

If the market reverses with a vengeance, this (and maybe others) could end up looking like "Island Reversals". Speculative.
Ah with that broker, yes, it does look like it could. Mine however already formed the bar
  • #42,268
  • Dec 18, 2012 2:58am Dec 18, 2012 2:58am
Yes, there are a lot of speculative actions going on.And the market is very thin ...better caution is needed.



Quoting traderathome
EJ:

H4 still has over an hour to go with this broker....

If the market reverses with a vengeance, this (and maybe others) could end up looking like "Island Reversals". Speculative.
  • #42,269
  • Dec 18, 2012 3:02am Dec 18, 2012 3:02am
I'm going to short again today !
Quoting umbro
Yes, there are a lot of speculative actions going on.And the market is very thin ...better caution is needed.
  • #42,270
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:43am Dec 18, 2012 4:43am
Quoting umbro
I'm going to short again today !
Fakeout or breakout?
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  • #42,271
  • Edited 9:47am Dec 18, 2012 6:50am | Edited 9:47am
I think this is all the movement we are going to get this week after a such big jump from last week it needs to rest before it moves again.



Edit: UP UP and away ??? Again.
  • #42,272
  • Dec 18, 2012 9:09am Dec 18, 2012 9:09am
waitin on the new year... and the fiscal lol cliff!
  • #42,273
  • Dec 18, 2012 10:13am Dec 18, 2012 10:13am
nice GU setup today, anyone get it?
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Keep Simple...!
  • #42,274
  • Dec 18, 2012 10:14am Dec 18, 2012 10:14am
out +30 pips
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  • #42,275
  • Dec 18, 2012 11:21am Dec 18, 2012 11:21am
Quoting kotlt
nice GU setup today, anyone get it?
i trade eu, stop loss moved to DR3 now.
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a citizen of earth
  • #42,276
  • Edited 12:33pm Dec 18, 2012 12:01pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting mihulea
I think this is all the movement we are going to get this week after a such big jump from last week it needs to rest before it moves again. Edit: UP UP and away ??? Again.
Surely, anything can take place. I see three realities:

1. With Obama victory and "Fiscal Cliff" more desireable than not, since it hurts the rich more than anyone else (read that as the bastards fianlly get to start paying more of their fair share), the USD is getting positioned for a true opportunity to start recovering from the financial debacle brought upon the world by the super-rich. The market must know this.

2. The euro has been getting "pumped" it seems like for ages! And there is truely no reason for it what with whole countries teetering on the brink of default, extension after extension after extension, and patch after patch after patch! It is a mess because this involves a common currency (euro), but individual countries and governments that don't like being dictated to by "others".

3. Money traded in the market daily is billions; many times more than the stock market. But that is only part of the picture. There are billions more "invested" in the market; sitting there in longer range speculation trades!


Now, the speculation:

1. The euro has been constantly bolstered because the financial systems at work in the world are controlled by the super-rich, and it is they that have the most "invested" in the euro. Were the euro to collapse, the local household will hurt, true. But the pampered super-rich will be diving off tall buildings because they can't face the reality of life as most others have to live it!

2. So much "privileged" money (big money, smart money; whatever you call it) is long the euro (billions), that it will not be allowed to turn on a dime. Getting out will take time. If the rats start to jump ship (and maybe they already have started, weeks ago), they are going to do it slowly, unnoticeably. They do not want to rock the boat by all going to the gunwhales and jumping at one time.

3. During such a covert exodus from the seemingly bullish EU, it must be made to appear the whole world is still bullish EU. How else are the "privileged" going to get enough new EU buyers to come into the market to take the buying side of all the existing EU long positions needing to be closed?

4. The year end/new year beginning market period is ideal for such activity, because with lower volumes the "privileged" can more easily control prices as they continue their exodus from EU longs, and do so in such manner as to continue the deception that the market is bullish EU. So, we likely face many more weeks of the status quo.

5. And logic says such activity would not be restricted to EU alone, but would occur with all USD pairs as the "privileged" close out their anti-USD positions. And that would just be the start. Once that is done, the next stage would naturally be for the "privileged" to start loading up on pro-USD positions. And, at some point during all of this, prices are going to start reflecting what really has been, and is, going on in the market.
  • #42,277
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:50pm Dec 18, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting kashTrader
Fakeout or breakout?
It was a good breakout but then we had retrace of 15 pips and then the rally for a trade R:R 1:4. In NYO, LO is better to have a SL a little bit more generous (for example, more than 15) to make room for the market avoiding being hit. If we suppose to double it to 30 pips we still have atrade with 1:2 which more than accptable R:R. Yes, I know ...it's to say later but these formations are frequent, You can have a check at December 14th session for example.
  • #42,278
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:13pm Dec 18, 2012 5:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by kashTrader http://images.forexfactory.net/buttons/viewpost.gif
Fakeout or breakout?



Quoting umbro
It was a good breakout but then we had retrace of 15 pips and then the rally for a trade R:R 1:4. In NYO, LO is better to have a SL a little bit more generous (for example, more than 15) to make room for the market avoiding being hit. If we suppose to double it to 30 pips we still have atrade with 1:2 which more than accptable R:R. Yes, I know ...it's to say later but these formations are frequent, You can have a check at December 14th session for example.
Sorry, the suggestion above is my personal and other traders experience doing the 5M. For the 15M, Which is rare for me, I suppose you already have bigger SL. overall the concept is valid but with different numbers.

A possible way of taking the trade is wating for the pullback which gives more safety. AT that point the market has the intention. I normally buy at the breakout without waiting becuse I'd like to the be the first on the bus and the last to leave. But it depends on your risk you wanna take. The pullback is obviously safer.
  • #42,279
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:10pm Dec 18, 2012 6:10pm
AU Comment:

PA broke down thru support and has backtested it. It held, now as resistance. At this, the market is showing to be bear, but with the upcoming FO/LO some upside movement might result.
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  • #42,280
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:31pm Dec 18, 2012 6:31pm
Hi, traderathome, I appreciate your comments on EURUSD, but could you please clarify point 5 ?
What do you mean by "pro-USD currencies", pretending to rise in short term ? Which currencies ?
IMHO, Euro is mecanically rising because USD is falling and falling due to dictatorial QE decided by the FED, mainly in order to artificially shrink the US debt. Desorganized european countries are victms of the FED policy, and no country is able to fight against such injust robbery.
I see USDJPY rising, but USDCAD is falling, showing what the FED is struggling for: depreciate their currency to cancel the debt.
What do you mean exactly by "pro-USD currencies" ?
Thank you very much for your help.


Quoting traderathome
Surely, anything can take place. I see three realities:

1. With Obama victory and "Fiscal Cliff" more desireable than not, since it hurts the rich more than anyone else (read that as the bastards fianlly get to start paying more of their fair share), the USD is getting positioned for a true opportunity to start recovering from the financial debacle brought upon the world by the super-rich. The market must know this.

2. The euro has been getting "pumped" it seems like for ages! And there is truely no reason for it what with whole countries...
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