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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #63,641
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:31am Dec 18, 2012 4:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't waste your time trying to convince others of those facts. The media and so called TV economists have convinced many of the exact opposite.
Damn media ...lol...the other day I was watching a US show (for the masses so very light) that was actually and very seriously putting the US vis-a-vis with Greece. More or less it was dooms day next week, Zimbabwe, N Korea, Greece and the US at the same level in economic terms, fiscal cliff and unemployment to 25%, inflation in double digits in less than 2 months and civil war at end ... is just ridiculous how the media influence and misinform.... but it also goes well with the American culture of fear...

Quoting lumesh
To sisse:

Solving a fiscal problem is exeptionally difficult because it has to come at the expense of smth else in a zero sum economic world. If you cut spending you increase unemployment, and by raising taxes you are hardly raising tax revenues....

......How do i solve the fiscal problem in a country ? Of course, by cutting spending. But it's not positive for the economy, definitely not in the mid term. ONLY in the (very) long term once negative effects of reduced aggregate demand and perhaps a panic has been surpassed.

...So, a...
I understand where are you coming from but I disagree. It depends on the case and is never a zero sum game. Sure, there are tradeoffs between public cuts and employment in heavily indebted countries in recession where the public sectors is one of the only and important employer (e.g. textbook examples are Greece, Portugal and Spain in Europe) but not that much (or at all) when you have solid macroeconomic base with strong economy output behind (examples in Europe are Germany, Switzerland and obviously the most important case in the world the US).

In the latter cases and in all cases before is too late (like in Greece,etc) , not taking the appropriate measure on time make compamies runaway and scare real investment. Just the expectation of a potential agreement only (which is not necessarily a real solution) is making markets rally non stop. An actual implementation will be very very positive for an Economy like the US ...

In economics and fiscal issues you can run but you can't hide, defaulting is extremely socially and financially costly (ask Greeks) and is only viable in desperation mode. In those cases, the effect on employment of public cuts can be devastating but that's the cost of mismanaging the economy for decades. That's not the case in the US. Cutting red tape, unnecessary Bureaucracy and targeted cuts that improve competitiveness in the private sector can have exponential positive impacts in the economy (killing 2 birds with one stone) when do it on time and with the proper mix and match between taxes and expenditures....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,642
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:38am Dec 18, 2012 4:38am
Quoting redteamgo
i know what it means. how does that translate to immateriality? ill give you reduced correlation to fx and the euro. however, the above, out of context, could be misconstrued as an explanation on why it is material. in fact, the market certainly thinks its material: its rebounded 80 handles in 2 weeks after a 7.8% selloff from all-time highs. is that immaterial? maybe you didnt really mean the word immaterial; using such a word to describe the current situation is just completely wrong.

if you have closely followed...

yes, perhaps i misphrased it, if u insist ...I meant that it is immateral to the fundamental outlook just as i stated in my first post which should turn into market prices eventually...But that's fundamental talk...

When it comes to FC having a direct impact on the rise of the SP500...well...that's hard to say whether we are getting buyers on the anticipation of FC clear solution the dominant part or the technicals having the dominant power who just don't really care about the FC...I personally think the latter...but yeah, INDIRECTLY, the whole fuss about FC is having an impact on liquitidy so in that regard it is material, sure.

Btw, wasn't that 80 handle rebound driven by QE expectations ? Cause in the past weeks all you got from fiscal cliff was a strong disagreement between Obama and Boner.
  • #63,643
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:50am Dec 18, 2012 4:50am
Quoting lumesh
1. yes, perhaps i misphrased it, if u insist ...I meant that it is immateral to the fundamental outlook just as i stated in my first post which should turn into market prices eventually...But that's fundamental talk...

2. When it comes to FC having a direct impact on the rise of the SP500...well...that's hard to say whether we are getting buyers on the anticipation of FC clear solution the dominant part or the technicals having the dominant power who just don't really care about the FC...I personally think the latter...but yeah, INDIRECTLY,...
1. i can agree with that. short/mid term, its extremely material to traders. long term, it is a blip amongst blips. fundementals have literally no relevance to day traders unless you are spreading or something so extreme happens that the market abruptly reverses. most economic data releases are just buy/sell opportunities within a trend... noise. one of the problems i see over and over, particularly on FF, is the obsession with macro data/analysis which often has little to no applicability to day trading except in the event of a developing crisis (other exceptions, im sure)

2. yes, volumes are lower and money has withdrawn from the market relative to 2010-2012 after normal seasonality. reasoning behind the rebound on s&p is just semantics. traders are piggy backing onto institutional traders. whether its algos, goldman sachs or whoever, it doesnt matter. they are embracing longs in response to these political events and if you are trading, that is the play. you are either long or you are scalping shorts.. and if the latter is the case, its only a matter of time until you give a lot back, imo. the exact same thing, coincidentally & for different reasons, can be said of the euro.

3. sure, some of it was QE expectations but that wasnt even on the mainstream radar back in mid november. i remember very clearly on Nov 16th because s&p was nearing the trough of the selloff and i was in from 1356 with several ATM puts and it screamed into reversal after Boehner started with the positive rhetoric. in the 10 minutes it took me to walk from my condo to my gym, my position had been scratched from 13-14 handle gain to a sell stop and i had to eat a loss on the options (very expensive). as the only guy on forexfactory that occasionally makes bad trades/gets burned, i can assure you that the FC has a quantifiable impact.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,644
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:53am Dec 18, 2012 4:53am
Thanks for your response.

Quoting sisse


That's not the case in the US. Cutting red tape, unnecessary Bureaucracy and targeted cuts that improve competitiveness in the private sector can have exponential positive impacts in the economy (killing 2 birds with one stone) when do it on time and with the proper mix and match between taxes and expenditures....

sisse
Well, fair enough. You're talking about best case scenario massive economic reforms that, for some reason, have not been implemented thus far. Is this the reality now ? Under Obama ? Shouldn't there be a revolution first ?

Anyways, sure, what you say makes sense, but my question is: Will it be the reality ? Or are we continuing to muddle through without the political will and skill to do the necessary changes ? Today, there's little to nothing to convince me on that, that's all.

My bet is that we will see an escalation of debt problems in the U.S. first...Could be wrong though...maybe everything will take a 180 degree change and debt will be paid back without a scratch.
  • #63,645
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:55am Dec 18, 2012 4:55am
Quoting sisse
Damn media ...lol...the other day I was watching a US show (for the masses so very light) that was actually and very seriously putting the US vis-a-vis with Greece. More or less it was dooms day next week, Zimbabwe, N Korea, Greece and the US at the same level in economic terms, fiscal cliff and unemployment to 25%, inflation in double digits in less than 2 months and civil war at end ... is just ridiculous how the media influence and misinform.... but it also goes well with the American culture of fear...

sisse...
I think I found the show

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,646
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:58am Dec 18, 2012 4:58am
...
  • #63,647
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:59am Dec 18, 2012 4:59am
Quoting redteamgo
as the only guy on forexfactory that occasionally makes bad trades/gets burned, i can assure you that the FC has a quantifiable impact.
yeah, by reading others posts, it definitely feels like every member and their mother is banking huge in the market place
  • #63,648
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:01am Dec 18, 2012 5:01am
Quoting sisse
In economics and fiscal issues you can run but you can't hide
i would just like to add that in that respect, the dollar isnt going anywhere. if the US goes down, everyone goes down as the house of fiat currency collapses. just my opinion, not a statement of fact.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,649
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:13am Dec 18, 2012 5:13am
Quoting lumesh
yeah, by reading others posts, it definitely feels like every member and their mother is banking huge in the market place
seriously. nearly everyone here is JPM/goldman sachs quality. take a gander at EURUSD. theyre long 500 contracts from 120 i havent made any real money since mid Nov except on the yen simply from piggybacking on some lows after a tipoff (thanks ken a ). lots of scratches, small(er) gains and losses (from small to medium). and I know I am not alone -- i have family and friends on the CME and KCBT.

ill take a break and stop spamming the thread. GL during NY today all.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,650
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:13am Dec 18, 2012 5:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think I found the show

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3q5NyxI8nk
Great show PT, thanks!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #63,651
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:49am Dec 18, 2012 5:49am
what is goin to happen for EJ ?? the price is holding the daily pivot line for past hours.i am really confused whether its goin down or not.
what you people think??
  • #63,652
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:56am Dec 18, 2012 5:56am
start feeling bear smells, i'm really tired waiting it goes down ("heraknet")
  • #63,653
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:02am Dec 18, 2012 6:02am
even i am tired of waiting.Well we cant predict how the price is going to react.I am waiting for bull to take place.we should be ready to take either way of market.
  • #63,654
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:22am Dec 18, 2012 6:22am
Quoting magicgate
start feeling bear smells, i'm really tired waiting it goes down ("heraknet")
don't wait, just go with the direction the market goes. If it goes up you buy, if it goes down you sell.
  • #63,655
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:29am Dec 18, 2012 6:29am
yeah, waiting is a bitch

4H chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #63,656
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:33am Dec 18, 2012 6:33am
Quoting lumesh
Thanks for your response.

Well, fair enough. You're talking about best case scenario massive economic reforms that, for some reason, have not been implemented thus far. Is this the reality now ? Under Obama ? Shouldn't there be a revolution first ? .


Quote
My bet is that we will see an escalation of debt problems in the U.S. first...Could be wrong though...maybe everything will take a 180 degree change and debt will be paid back without a scratch.

Although, lately the US politicians are acting like in a 3rd word country, the Americans has an impressive way to adapt (and fast). They are already ahead of the curve (among the develop world) in this recession and they have been always 1st to lead and adapt on top in each economic slow down since WWII...Looks bad in Washington but don't forget it was election year (it always does in election year) but is mostly noise, macro and micro economic numbers, real economy and financial markets don't lie ...despite the fears the media sell....we'll see in a few...

Quoting redteamgo
i would just like to add that in that respect, the dollar isnt going anywhere. if the US goes down, everyone goes down as the house of fiat currency collapses. just my opinion, not a statement of fact.
Agree, dollar is here to stay for a very long time. Is going nowhere and no different than the last 80 years. Controlled slow devaluation to pump the US economy and the only haven currency in times of panic...

GL all in NY
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,657
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:38am Dec 18, 2012 6:38am
Quoting redteamgo
seriously. nearly everyone here is JPM/goldman sachs quality. take a gander at EURUSD. theyre long 500 contracts from 120 i havent made any real money since mid Nov except on the yen simply from piggybacking on some lows after a tipoff (thanks ken a ). lots of scratches, small(er) gains and losses (from small to medium). and I know I am not alone -- i have family and friends on the CME and KCBT.

ill take a break and stop spamming the thread. GL during NY today all.
Hi, where do you take/obtain this info from, if you can and dont mind sharing... and for that matter where can we follow these large institution direction of trades FX wise that is?

Thanks,
Cheers!!
  • #63,658
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:47am Dec 18, 2012 6:47am
you could be right...only time will tell.

Quoting sisse




Although, lately the US politicians are acting like in a 3rd word country, the Americans has an impressive way to adapt (and fast). They are already ahead of the curve (among the develop world) in this recession and they have been always 1st to lead and adapt on top in each economic slow down since WWII...Looks bad in Washington but don't forget it was election year (it always does in election year) but is mostly noise, macro and micro economic numbers, real economy and financial markets don't lie ...despite the fears the media sell....we'll...
  • #63,659
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:57am Dec 18, 2012 6:57am
awesome "efficiency" in the marketplace - eur and gbp skyrocketing against AUD, when stock are up...

think about it fundamentally: yield is in AUD, troubles are in europe - where's the efficient market ? Sure, in longer term it might make sense...but today ?
  • #63,660
  • Dec 18, 2012 7:05am Dec 18, 2012 7:05am
Quoting lumesh
awesome "efficiency" in the marketplace - eur and gbp skyrocketing against AUD, when stock are up...

think about it fundamentally: yield is in AUD, troubles are in europe - where's the efficient market ? Sure, in longer term it might make sense...but today ?
Good thanks for pointing out how crazy this all is.
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