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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #63,621
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:39am Dec 18, 2012 4:39am
Quoting wingou
As i'm at work i can't look at the video with sound, does someone can briefly summarize it ?
Thank you
...bearish view, blah blah blah, remain short, blah blah blah...although...blah blah blah...year end...no credibility in PA...bearish doji close...not above 1.32 on a weekly close basis...will remain short forever...blah blah blah.
  • #63,622
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:40am Dec 18, 2012 4:40am
Quoting lumesh
...bearish view, blah blah blah, remain short, blah blah blah...although...blah blah blah...year end...no credibility in PA...bearish doji close...not above 1.32 on a weekly close basis...will remain short forever...blah blah blah.
hahaha

Quoting redteamgo
[...] i was long from 1412 and covered off the highs before the late day rally. missed 10 handles. typical.
missed another 5 and possibly a great foothold for a santa claus rally if the FC actually makes forward progress. sickening
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,623
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:52am Dec 18, 2012 4:52am
Quoting redteamgo
my executive summary in regards to the euro discussion in the video is that bears are in an unfortunate spot. the market has a tendency to push directionally into EOY. that direction happens to be up. on the other hand, there seems to be some buyer exhaustion marked by the daily doji which doesnt necessarily preclude higher highs. so, hold on to your seat.

as far as my interpretation goes, if we have a soft sell-off, i would get long back to 3100/10. this depends entirely on how price feels as it moves back. if there is real appreciation...

could also be that the year end closings of the books (the accumulated shorts over the year) for whatever inner reasons. The activity will be back on January. God know what will happen with the remainder of the year.

Forget the relationship with stocks - aud, eur and gbp don't give a crap about the direction of stocks right now. And eur, gbp don't give a crap about the weakness in aud.
  • #63,624
  • Dec 18, 2012 4:55am Dec 18, 2012 4:55am
Quoting lumesh
could also be that the year end closings of the books (the accumulated shorts over the year) for whatever inner reasons. The activity will be back on January. God know what will happen with the remainder of the year.

Forget the relationship with stocks - aud, eur and gbp don't give a crap about the direction of stocks right now. And eur, gbp don't give a crap about the weakness in aud.
indeed, correlation is surely low right now.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,625
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:02am Dec 18, 2012 5:02am
Quoting redteamgo
hahaha


missed another 5 and possibly a great foothold for a santa claus rally if the FC actually makes forward progress. sickening
Fiscal cliff solution is immaterial at this point. If there's no deal then taxes are raised and spendings are cut. If there's a deal the same will happen, although at a softer scale. Bottomline is, whatever is decided or not the effect will be negative expectations for the economy because stimulus is withdrawn to some extent by the public sector.

Sure, a no deal can result in a kneejerk small panic but a solution aint no shiny spot for the markets either.
  • #63,626
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:07am Dec 18, 2012 5:07am
Quoting redteamgo
indeed, correlation is surely low right now.

And even if there was a correlation it still doesn't tell you who is leading, who is lagging and when does the trend change. That's MY takeaway from past experiences. One needs to understand the story behind the prevailing sentiment.
  • #63,627
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:10am Dec 18, 2012 5:10am
Did anybody heard anything about SNB's actions in FX lately..? Arent they selling their stock of Euros yet..? USD fairly cheep at these levels...
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  • #63,628
  • Edited 5:27am Dec 18, 2012 5:14am | Edited 5:27am
Quoting lumesh
Fiscal cliff solution is immaterial at this point. If there's no deal then taxes are raised and spendings are cut. If there's a deal the same will happen, although at a softer scale. Bottomline is, whatever is decided or not the effect will be negative expectations for the economy because stimulus is withdrawn to some extent by the public sector.

Sure, a no deal can result in a kneejerk small panic but a solution aint no shiny spot for the markets either.
immaterial to what? fx? the euro? if thats what you mean, i agree but only to the extent of euro strength

however, i trade the s&p. its extremely material to us indices. in fact, one could say its the driver of the entire us equity market right now. the market doesnt care about the substance of the deal right now, only the workings of a deal. the past 5 weeks have been classic buy the rumor, sell the fact. right now the rumor has moved this index almost 20 handles in as many bars, which is hardly something to be disregarded; not to mention the effects on dollar strength which are hardly quantifiable right now.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,629
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:15am Dec 18, 2012 5:15am
Quoting Likerty
Did anybody heard anything about SNB's actions in FX lately..? Arent they selling their stock of Euros yet..? USD fairly cheep at these levels...
Why would they sell ? EURCHF is just 70+ points from the floor.

or am i missing smth ? Why does it matter to them where the usd is ?
  • #63,630
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:17am Dec 18, 2012 5:17am
i will be trading on the basis that, imo, eu leaders have no desire to have a weak euro at this point while at the same time us leaders are doing everything they can to devalue the dollar.

fiscal cliff "crisis" is like a bad after school special at this point and much like those specials a solution will be found just in the nick of time.

recent moves in the euro have shown all of us just how small of players we are. For the most part analysis, indicators, logic, etc go out the window when the real players decide on a direction.

i do not expect to see any MAJOR drops in the euro till later 2013, once power consolidation is further sorted.

just my two pence, all the best in the new year

ps..yes there is a little tin foil hat/conspiracy reasoning behind this post.
  • #63,631
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:18am Dec 18, 2012 5:18am
Quoting lumesh
Fiscal cliff solution is immaterial at this point. If there's no deal then taxes are raised and spendings are cut. If there's a deal the same will happen, alt..... whatever is decided or not the effect will be negative expectations for the economy because stimulus is withdrawn to some extent by the public sector.
Let me ask you something. How do you solve a fiscal problem in a country?, either you raise taxes and tax revenues or cut spending. If you do both in whatever form, don't you think is positive in the mid term?

My point is some commentator especially the US doomers criticize everything. A blow because they don't address the fiscal problem and a blow because they do...so what do they expect .... Agree it will trigger profit taking whatever the case but that is not because is negative for the economy. Mid term and if the details and measures are decent enough is not only very bullish for equities but for the dollar.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,632
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:22am Dec 18, 2012 5:22am
Quoting sisse
Mid term and if the details and measures are decent enough is not only very bullish for equities but for the dollar.
i was typing something similar but you have put it quite succinctly. thanks
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,633
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:40am Dec 18, 2012 5:40am
Quoting lumesh
Why would they sell ? EURCHF is just 70+ points from the floor.

or am i missing smth ? Why does it matter to them where the usd is ?
Well as they have quite a handful pile of Euros, and USD is at/near the lows - they could diversify their currency portfolio a bit.. Later in 2013/14 they could buy back some of their francs with stronger dollar..
Just thinking out loud..
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  • #63,634
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:46am Dec 18, 2012 5:46am
Quoting Likerty
Well as they have quite a handful pile of Euros, and USD is at/near the lows - they could diversify their currency portfolio a bit.. Later in 2013/14 they could buy back some of their francs with stronger dollar..
Just thinking out loud..
Likerty for SNB chairman. You've got my vote
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,635
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:48am Dec 18, 2012 5:48am
Quoting sisse
Let me ask you something. How do you solve a fiscal problem in a country?, either you raise taxes and tax revenues or cut spending. If you do both in whatever form, don't you think is positive in the mid term?

My point is some commentator especially the US doomers criticize everything. A blow because they don't address the fiscal problem and a blow because they do...so what do they expect .... Agree it will trigger profit taking whatever the case but that is not because is negative for the economy. Mid term and if the details and measures are decent enough is not only very bullish for equities but for the dollar.

sisse
Don't waste your time trying to convince others of those facts. The media and so called TV economists have convinced many of the exact opposite.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,636
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:51am Dec 18, 2012 5:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Likerty for SNB chairman. You've got my vote
With T. Jordan's wife's vote I have two already! Not bad..
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  • #63,637
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:52am Dec 18, 2012 5:52am
Quoting redteamgo
immaterial to what? fx? the euro? if thats what you mean, i agree.

however, i trade the s&p. its extremely material to us indices. in fact, one could say its the driver of the entire us equity market right now. the market doesnt care about the substance of the deal right now, only the workings of a deal. the past 5 weeks have been classic buy the rumor, sell the fact. right now the rumor has moved this index almost 20 handles in as many bars, which is hardly something to be disregarded.

well, still meant stocks too. Technically, what does "buy the rumor sell the fact mean" ? It means that, ahead of the event, fundamentals scale back which make technicals more dominant. So, the net effect of the price will be determined where the short term trend is. In case of SP500 it's up. So, even though the outlook for the cliff solution is either bad or worse the market still edges up on thin liquitidy and the dominance of technical players starting from short term algos to retail to whoever who is ignorant about the macro. And the existence of this EXACT reason is why the markets just can NOT be efficient.


To sisse:

Solving a fiscal problem is exeptionally difficult because it has to come at the expense of smth else in a zero sum economic world. If you cut spending you increase unemployment, and by raising taxes you are hardly raising tax revenues. At least not to the extent you expect. There's a big BUT in all of this because you are pricing in the assumption of "all other things being equal". That's why it only sounds good in theory. The rich will always find a way to game the system and pay as little taxes as possible.

So, a spending cut and a tax raise equals to higher unemployment and lower spending. To me it dampens the outlook for the economy. It doesn't mean that the U.S. will hit a recession, no, the econ data has been positive and with a continous momentum. But the growth in the future will be sluggish. It has to be because of the developed world's fiscal drag. The lavishing standard of living in the past needs to be compensated by the hard work of the future or by the default of your debt. There is no positive sum in this game.

How do i solve the fiscal problem in a country ? Of course, by cutting spending. But it's not positive for the economy, definitely not in the mid term. ONLY in the (very) long term once negative effects of reduced aggregate demand and perhaps a panic has been surpassed.
  • #63,638
  • Dec 18, 2012 5:56am Dec 18, 2012 5:56am
Quoting Likerty
With T. Jordan's wife's vote I have two already! Not bad..


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qf9hUyP7I2...Mrs+Jordan.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,639
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:08am Dec 18, 2012 6:08am
Quoting lumesh
well, still meant stocks too. Technically, what does "buy the rumor sell the fact mean" ? It means that, ahead of the event, fundamentals scale back which make technicals more dominant. So, the net effect of the price will be determined where the short term trend is. In case of SP500 it's up. So, even though the outlook for the cliff solution is either bad or worse the market still edges up on thin liquitidy and the dominance of technical players starting from short term algos to retail to whoever who is ignorant about the macro. And the existence...
i know what it means. how does that translate to immateriality? ill give you reduced correlation to fx and the euro. however, the above, out of context, could be misconstrued as an explanation on why it is material. in fact, the market certainly thinks its material: its rebounded 80 handles in 2 weeks after a 7.8% selloff from all-time highs. is that immaterial? maybe you didnt really mean the word immaterial; using such a word to describe the current situation is just completely wrong.

if you have closely followed intraday movements, you would know that it has not edged up regardless of the news. there has been a LOT of chop due entirely to the FC. ive said it before and I stand by it: this market is entirely beta driven.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,640
  • Dec 18, 2012 6:09am Dec 18, 2012 6:09am
Quoting PipTrapper


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qf9hUyP7I2...Mrs+Jordan.jpg
"Yes!"
Thats what she said..
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