Trendline breakouts

Hoping for a nice trend to develop..

eurjpy past 108..

Crude Oil futures breaks 87.00

eurjpy..

Crude Oil futures needs to get going soon...

eurjpy developed into a really nice trend...

Crude oil being a barometer of the general economy, the battle lines are drawn:

1 Those betting tat the US will go over the fiscal cliff

2 Those that think otherwise.. Any outcome/non-outcome of the budget negotiations will see fireforks...

Still above the long breakout point of the previous trendline.

eurjpy reached above 111 earlier, with a gap...

The problem with your tl's is that:

1. TL's in general are very subjective based on where you draw the starting point.

2. Secondly, you're tl's are so short term in nature that they have not been well tested.

I've tried for a long time to trade breaks but its one of the hardest strategies. Breaks fail more often then they succeed, which brings be to a few more questions.

1. Looks like you're going long on the pull backs?.. why?..if most breaks fail, why are you not shorting the pops and at least covering at the retest of the tl?

would be nice to see you post entries on these charts when they occur and update them with exit prices.

Anyone can throw up charts.

Yes, that's right. Some traders are thinking that breakout is easy to trade compare with trend following.
But it is exact opposite - it is difficult to trade. It is easy to see it on the chart (post-breakout) but it is not easy to trade using price action only (sr and tl only).

This is USDJPY for now as an example - we see breakout levels, besides - the price break one trendline ... I do not remember the name of this price pattern when the price is inside the cross created by 2 trendlines ... cross? so if the price will go out of this cross - it is indicating some movement (to the side the price go to).

It is the situation for right now (I opened sell) ... but where the price will go to for now?

I am using very old MaksiGen indicator (attached) with default settings.
And I am using M1 timeframe just especially ... to see how the price willm ove in quick way.
Of course, M1 timeframe is not a typical, one for this kind of trading.

It is the situation for now:



Where the price will go?
It depends on which trendline will be crossed by price ...

Lower trendline was crossed by price.
Downtrend

well.
do you know why it is so difficult to trade on this way?

Because trendlines and support/resistance lines are indicating the following: what is going with the price right now.
Right now on open bar.
It is very different from standard indicators because we are trading indicators on close (means: previous) bar.
And trendlines - on open bar; it means: the situation is changed every moment in case of trendlines.

Price is trying to cross this line, we see it?



if the price will cross this line so price will go down for some more ... pips for example.
It is just nothing for M1 timeframe but if we will use it on H4 or D1 - it may be good profit.

I think emacro is correct (read first post of this thread):

I agree the trendlines are very subjective, hence the 'art' in tech analysis.

The breaks are a reason to trade. What we want to do is to try to get aboard a trend and 'let it run'. The timeframe however will determine how long it can potentially last.

No method is 90% or 100%, and at some point, all technical methods will fail. Moves like the eurjpy 1hr will hopefully enable the trader to cover some failed breakout trades. It is good to have others say their mind on whether a method is crap or not, as everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Anyway Crude Oil is on its way.

I name it "ready to go" à la Warcraft





What does it mean?
When all support/resistance lines and tl came very close to each other with the price in the middle so ... we can expect breakout soon. Price is telling to you: "ready to go"

=======

- MaksiGen indicator is on this post (indicator is drawing s/r/tl depends on preselected number of bars).
- MTrendLine alert indicator is on this post.
- MaksiGen_Range_Move mtf 2 indicator is on this post.
- Template to trade or monitor M1 timeframe is on this post.
- Trading results (in case of M1) is on this post.