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  • #734,081
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:21am Dec 17, 2012 11:21am
Quoting gatorinla
hey folks.. whats your h close at 1pm est?
1.31565
  • #734,082
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:22am Dec 17, 2012 11:22am
after a 2.3% gain from A => B now we are seeing the loss of momentum stage .....I do not discount 1.32 being hit before we have the corrective phase B =>C. as it has been said before...No one knows the future but, I will be putting my money where my mouth is and will be shorting at 1.32 area unless of course it turns bearish beforehand.

The most important question to me right now is

how much liquidity does the market have at this time of the year? and what will be the expected impact, and the actual impact of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

the Expectation so far is that there will be a deal to avoid, projected spending cuts and expiration of tax cuts.

the real question here though is will it be risk on .....with investors looking for yields

or will this be USD positive ?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #734,083
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:22am Dec 17, 2012 11:22am
Quoting gatorinla
r u sure its mine?
I can list you here at least 100 institutions with their 4h charts... [db, saxo. fxcm, gain, tdfx....ect]
but if you are talking about 4h close yes.. pretty much @ 3160-31610 close..

depends what you are looking GMT or EST close.. 4H is tricky one

  • #734,084
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:22am Dec 17, 2012 11:22am
Quoting divak
failure to agree on fiscal cliff... for instance
It might then it might not. Failure on Fiscal Cliff might trigger major capital flows out of US to EURO or other part in ASIA such as AUD and NZD
  • #734,085
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:26am Dec 17, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Piters
I can list you here at least 100 institutions with their 4h charts... [db, saxo. fxcm, gain, tdfx....ect]
but if you are talking about 4h close yes.. pretty much @ 3160-31610 close..

depends what you are looking GMT or EST close.. 4H is tricky one

that can distort things.. using the 5est close... then i figured the 4h follows it..so i follow it. i am sure there are 100's doing it other ways.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #734,086
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:26am Dec 17, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Ken A
It might then it might not. Failure on Fiscal Cliff might trigger major capital flows out of US to EURO or other part in ASIA such as AUD and NZD
could be yes.
but my overall analysis is that people would take it as a negative sign for the global economy, sending EURUSD down. people flowing to safehaven dollar...
  • #734,087
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:28am Dec 17, 2012 11:28am
Quoting gatorinla
r u sure its mine?
4H charts are dependent on the time zone.
For GMT, last 4H close was 1.31613.
"Those who were pessimists, died quickly."
  • #734,088
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:29am Dec 17, 2012 11:29am
Quoting Ken A
It might then it might not. Failure on Fiscal Cliff might trigger major capital flows out of US to EURO or other part in ASIA such as AUD and NZD
If that happens, ppl going to buy safeheaven- usd imo.

eh, divak got the same opinion above.
Forex Trading is like Fitness: the Key is Patience.
  • #734,089
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:30am Dec 17, 2012 11:30am
Quoting Ken A
From current level falls to 1.2xx will need some major sell-off or extremely bad news? Or based on historical data this thing will happen technically? Don't take me wrong, just curious. Thanks
eur/usd looks very bullish comparing to other markets look at gold or silver going down . is eur the real move to the upside or is gold the real move to the downside . to look at it as a correction and its coming to an end soon is a possibility and its just a possibility with nothing to strengthen that view right now but may be if it does devlope in an ending diagonal wave c then may be there is a chance for it to go down fast but right now everything points to the upside
  • #734,090
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:30am Dec 17, 2012 11:30am
Quoting divak
could be yes.
but my overall analysis is that people would take it as a negative sign for the global economy, sending EURUSD down. people flowing to safehaven dollar...
It could be. If you like, have a look at Kiwi and Aussie Bonds post QE3 and the exchange rate. You might find something interesting
  • #734,091
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:30am Dec 17, 2012 11:30am
Quoting metaprotodot
4H charts are dependent on the time zone.
For GMT, last 4H close was 1.31613.
then your hurting yourself. the reserve currency is the usd, the u.s. fed reserve bank is on est.
London is also just as important.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #734,092
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:31am Dec 17, 2012 11:31am
Quoting metaprotodot
4H charts are dependent on the time zone.
For GMT, last 4H close was 1.31613.
Forget the 4H - 8 H - 100 H Close, if it is you in that avatar, how about a date...?
  • #734,093
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:31am Dec 17, 2012 11:31am
Quoting Ken A
It could be. If you like, have a look at Kiwi and Aussie Bonds post QE3 and the exchange rate. You might find something interesting
yup, i know what u mean. But slowing economy would mean China slowing too, no customers for them; meaning less appetite for OZ assets and commodities, probably sending AUDUSD down too.

As for kiwi, honestly i dont know... i'm not trading it at all.
  • #734,094
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:32am Dec 17, 2012 11:32am
Quoting gatorinla
then your hurting yourself. the reserve currency is the usd, the u.s. fed reserve bank is on est.
excellent reason.. or excuse..
  • #734,095
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:32am Dec 17, 2012 11:32am
NB : HF cut bullish bets on oils by most since may.
  • #734,096
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:34am Dec 17, 2012 11:34am
Quoting nawafasad1
eur/usd looks very bullish comparing to other markets look at gold or silver going down . is eur the real move to the upside or is gold the real move to the downside . to look at it as a correction and its coming to an end soon is a possibility and its just a possibility with nothing to strengthen that view right now but may be if it does devlope in an ending diagonal wave c then may be there is a chance for it to go down fast but right now everything points to the upside
Agreed. The correlation has been broken. Gold and silver might have its own stories. Let's wait and see. It's painful to watch PA in tight range
  • #734,097
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:34am Dec 17, 2012 11:34am
Quoting davidfx2012
If that happens, ppl going to buy safeheaven- usd imo.

eh, divak got the same opinion above.
saw that
  • #734,098
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:34am Dec 17, 2012 11:34am
Quoting divak
yup, i know what u mean. But slowing economy would mean China slowing too, no customers for them; meaning less appetite for OZ assets and commodities, probably sending AUDUSD down too.

As for kiwi, honestly i dont know... i'm not trading it at all.
i just left NZ almost a year ago. Things aint really rosy over there. Oz's a little bit better though.
Forex Trading is like Fitness: the Key is Patience.
  • #734,099
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:35am Dec 17, 2012 11:35am
Quoting the redlion
how much liquidity does the market have at this time of the year? and what will be the expected impact, and the actual impact of the fiscal cliff negotiations.
Thin markets across the boar. The fiscal cliff has enough power short term to not make you wanna miss the move. Mid term can be a trend changer (Equities) with furhet momentum after window dressing is gone, The outcome depends on the detail. Tax increase for the top earners is done deal, cuts on welfare not that clear but some ..the devil is the details.

Going without any agreement (even if it is for next year) over the cliff (I really doubt) will trigger a very decent selloff across the board and continuation in GOLD. Dollar is more complex and it will weaken short term until the selloff in equities triggers risk when it should reverse as soon as the knee jerk reaction is settle ....

Whatever the case, the move have a wide range to play out, it has the potential to push as high as all time highs R in the S&P to trigger a major downtrend in equities for Q1, to just a 1/2 agreement that will let us floating in the same range until next year.

We'll see
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #734,100
  • Dec 17, 2012 11:36am Dec 17, 2012 11:36am
Quoting math_GB
Forget the 4H - 8 H - 100 H Close, if it is you in that avatar, how about a date...?
Horn-dog!
"Those who were pessimists, died quickly."
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