EURUSD

before open we will have result , may be in 5 ~ 6 hours

technical reason or fundamental ?

may be it's already withdrawn

Hmmm

I don't see any fundemental reason for that, Maybe if China and the exporting companies are slowing down would lower the damned and reduce prices ... but how this will fit , with China & USA recovery ? Hope Gator explain ...

its constipated. when oil is cheaper, generally the yen gets stronger (in the past). japan imports all of its oil. the dynamics of this has changed with the u.s now producing more oil. we got a new ball game. what worked in the past may no longer be true.

cheaper oil in recent times has also weakened the euro. oil is below the 200 100 and 50 emad. last attempt to get above 50 was rejected.. its also below 50% 2008 high 2009 low .. and below 50% of the 2011/12 H/L..
a drop below 75.8 and 62 is the next big s.. 55 below it.

seems like a funny, but that is true.

nice to hear this from a Japanese. I agree with you. Abe bullshit. what the fuck can he do with usd/jpy. he may take it to 88. what after that. we are already at 84. 400 pips is nothing.

so gator. heard you got stopped out on Friday. so even the euro guru is losing. so nothing new that I lost last week. so where does the euro go now. 1.32-33-34.

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/cu...&time=2012-349

well even the optimistic of the targets say euro at 1.3483. so we are 200 pips from that level. I would like some more shorts to cover. so I want 1.32 levels and then the final countdown to 1.29 starts. so i want the euro to rally tomorrow

There is nothing to be stopped out , but if you were following his posts early in 1.29 he never disputed 1.35 , 1.33 or 1.32

I never said that his targets were wrong. probably you are messing with the wrong person.

i doubt that happens... i feel it may open near 1.3130/40 levels play for some time and back to 1.3100/20 levels for consolidation
1.3100 level was strong resistance it may act as support if else the pair may range bet ween 1.3030- 1.3100 levels

i am looking for further level of 1.2980 this week. else if it goes above 1.3175 i will not be trading for buy or sell as for me it will be crappy zone....

this is how i am positioning my self with downward outlook and if i have to buy eur i am not doing that at any level till mid of feb 2013.

i cannot take guarantee because this is my bias. different people may have different.

thanks , i have marked levels

there have been pages and pages of after the fact attempts at trying to justify the move on Friday and plenty here keep saying it was all in the cards.

It wasn't. This move in EURUSD was purely driven by the dollar alone, that sold of, have a look at uCHF and dixy. That move had no correlated correction in the risk assets, look at es/DOW/DAX/XAU. This was a move in a single currency that has no correlation.

Now that it has happened, and I did get stopped out of a trade on friday by 20 odd pips as I trade the markets as a whole and don't focus on just one pair, I would NOT take a long here at these levels unless either XAU/WTI catch up or es/DOW futures start going up and I for one would want to see 1416 broken in es, that would signal a further upmove in eurusd to go along side it as the market sees the EURUSD move as a trigger for risk on sentiment. The last time the dollar sold of like this in an uncorrelated market we had a change of sentiment in the weeks thereafter, go look at your es/DOW/VIX correlation and go back 2 years.

The dollar was debased purely by infationary pressure on Friday, moves like these happen when the techs are skewed as they have been in currencies all year. Trading volumes on EBS/ICAP are down by 30-40% last month compared to last year, that tells you the big boys have left the playing field and the only big boys we have left are the CB's and the BIS, they don't play by our rules, they have their own.

The comment earleir that the NY and London banks compete against each other is rubbish, the same banks have floors in both Cities and they work together, not against each other when operating under the same house, irrespective of location.

Technically the daily wants to break 3172. when looking at this pair in isolation and wants 3347 when looking at the weekly, that would set the curve for the bottom on the monthly and we can continue next year trading the debasing of the dollar based on the rounds of QE we have had.

The caveat here is the risk sentiment, that does not show an appetite for higher in eurusd, on the contrary, that wants a reversal here.

So next week we as traders need to make up our mind, are the dollar devaluers in charge such as the CB's and BIS or are we going back to a correlated "whole" market. Now, I for one would not trade purely based on dollar debasing I want the market to operate as a whole mechanism or else there is little point as a tech trader.

EURUSD does not live in a vacuum and when it behaves like it does, as it did on Friday, I just stand aside and let it come back in the fold first.

Shorting this because it is oversold is rubbish, there is no such thing in currencies, shorting this because the risk sentiment is not catching up on Monday and does not justify this pair even being at this level does make sense. You can only buy this if the risk catches up, that would make this pair the lead signal for the market as a whole, which is rare indeed.

My 2 P

PS, for that guy who has 8k under water, get out only when you get an H4 bar entirely over 3172, that will tell you we are going to the weekly number by TUE/WED, this pair will not get back to your entry, not for weeks/months unless the yanks fold and let here drop of the cliff, and that will not happen. so you are pretty much fecked, just try to get an exit that limits your damage, go away, lick your wounds and come back fresh and try again.

hedging is absolute BS, there is no such thing as same instrument hedging and I am glad that more and more retail brokers charge margin for hedged trades, that should be a wake up call for you retailers that it is rubbish.

Don't make up your mind based on the TY session tonight, you need to see what London/NY overlap does tomorrow, you need the equity traders at their desk to judge the risk sentiment, not just a couple of lone currency traders in Singapore/Wellington/HK

Great post/response mate...! I bid you a great week...!