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  • #733,301
  • Dec 16, 2012 12:56am Dec 16, 2012 12:56am
Quoting valent1ne
I am not short biased, beacuse i dont expect the EUR/USD to fall under 1.29. At that price i would buy it. And if somewone would ask me "should i short the EUR/USD" i would answer "i have no ideea" beacuse of the facts which you mentioned, which i also agree with you. I even cut the short from 1.3098 which i took and replaced it with one at 1.3147. My expectations are based on the volume traded as following:
-The increase in QE from 40bilion$ to 80 or 85billions$ (i knew about 80) was known since mid november. There is a company in a small...

WELL DONE !! your post is excellent.
  • #733,302
  • Dec 16, 2012 1:09am Dec 16, 2012 1:09am
Quoting divak
i'm just asking.
Since everybody here seems to be easy to justify the NY moves, i guessed they have a clear and simple explanation...
obvious things are easy to explain, right?

Then, it seems no one knows what made such a move after London closed. I understand some people may have bullish exp on EURUSD, but i would be surprised only people US have such.... London and Asia are not fools as far as i know.... so i believe this move was overdone... and we'll probably get back to our feet at 1.31 by monday.
Current levels, @ big resistance, are a wonderful...
lol. no one knows what happened in the 2 hrs in NY open on friday and just talking bullshit things. I think a very nice post was put forward by sunilpawar(thanks for the post) and some muppets started targetting his posts. I agree with suni and his posts. London did not find a obvious reason to kill the stops and left the stops open. now these 14 big players are always in race to fuck each other. somebody must have fucked the US guy in asian session by taking out his 1.31000 stop so he decided to take out the european. now who lost in all this mockery? retailers and people like you, me.
  • #733,303
  • Dec 16, 2012 1:13am Dec 16, 2012 1:13am
Quoting spartanforex
WELL DONE !! your post is excellent.
well don't act like a muppet. there is no guarantee that euro cannot fall to 1.29. i checked the rates for 2nd to 6th Jan(this year, thin market conditions, no news etc etc) and the euro has fallen from 1.3080 to 1.2680. 400 pips. one of the days i remember. it fell 150 pips in 3 hrs or so
  • #733,304
  • Dec 16, 2012 1:28am Dec 16, 2012 1:28am
EUR/USD closed at a 3 month high at 1.3160
  • #733,305
  • Dec 16, 2012 1:50am Dec 16, 2012 1:50am
Quoting Nachiket
well don't act like a muppet. there is no guarantee that euro cannot fall to 1.29. i checked the rates for 2nd to 6th Jan(this year, thin market conditions, no news etc etc) and the euro has fallen from 1.3080 to 1.2680. 400 pips. one of the days i remember. it fell 150 pips in 3 hrs or so
similarly it may go high as well
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,306
  • Dec 16, 2012 1:58am Dec 16, 2012 1:58am
Quoting Nachiket
well don't act like a muppet. there is no guarantee that euro cannot fall to 1.29. i checked the rates for 2nd to 6th Jan(this year, thin market conditions, no news etc etc) and the euro has fallen from 1.3080 to 1.2680. 400 pips. one of the days i remember. it fell 150 pips in 3 hrs or so
Indian?
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,307
  • Dec 16, 2012 2:55am Dec 16, 2012 2:55am
Quoting valent1ne
-Check the volumes from the rises since mid november, remove from them the volume of the sell-off from the ECB last meeting (which again, i repeat, announced that they want a rate cut to the euro -> euro down), add the volumes from the rises till friday and u will get a highly positive number.
-That number is too big in low liquidity season (check almost record low level liqudity for the recent past)
-Most institutional clients dont want to end the week with many positions opened, what about an year.
-Given this facts there must be a long closing...

You might find this interesting and if the following aligns with your stop hunt theory of Friday Dec 14, 2012 movement

Sep 14, 2012 post QE3, E/U printed 1.3172 and USD Index was 78.60.
Dec 14, 2012 post QE4, E/U printed 1.3172and USD Index was 79.50.

Different brokers/services might print 1 or 2 pips off
  • #733,308
  • Dec 16, 2012 3:08am Dec 16, 2012 3:08am
Quoting Ken A
You might find this interesting and if the following aligns with your stop hunt theory of Friday Dec 14, 2012 movement

Sep 14, 2012 post QE3, E/U printed 1.3172 and USD Index was 78.60.
Dec 14, 2012 post QE4, E/U printed 1.3172and USD Index was 79.50.

Different brokers/services might print 1 or 2 pips off
interesting...
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,309
  • Edited 3:46am Dec 16, 2012 3:31am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting Ken A
You might find this interesting and if the following aligns with your stop hunt theory of Friday Dec 14, 2012 movement

Sep 14, 2012 post QE3, E/U printed 1.3172 and USD Index was 78.60.
Dec 14, 2012 post QE4, E/U printed 1.3172and USD Index was 79.50.

Different brokers/services might print 1 or 2 pips off

Yes, pretty strage correlations at first sight, but you have to keep in mind the USD/JPY. Lots of money are being placed here and it's (or at last it was pre-ABE bullshiting) a diversify risk-off instruments. This pair rised a lot, for already known reasons by everyone. This is the main reason for this difference in the USD Index. If the JPY story wouldnt be in place, we will probably see the USD Index at even smaller level than Sep 14. Anyway more advanced calculation are necessary in order to establish where the USD Index should be given the rise in USD/JPY and dollar drop-off on the other pairs so dont take anything what i said as granted


Anyway, Monday close will give us the answers. There is a chance to see the top levels being taken out like butter next week, or to have the reaction im insisting about - take profits sessions on pre-QE announcement rises. I'd place my money on a consolidation day on Monday. I still have the NZD/USD to load shorts all over it, as it is 400 pips away from record history high (also place for 200 pips drop in order to even considering entering a down trend) and with important NZD data coming this week, while all latest data from NZD was bad.


P.S. watch closely the JPY elections! If Abe wins as planned, target 2008 levels on JPY pairs. If we get a surprised and Abe is being sent to trash, expect at last around 50% retracements on the rises since Abe's first comment regarding making the JPY as valuable as toilet paper.
  • #733,310
  • Edited 4:10am Dec 16, 2012 3:34am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting Daytrader74
Of course, theres a difference, if i close and it turns in my favour then I've already lost!! but if i hold and it go down then i may have chance to recover some of my loses back or even all if it goes down really sharp
My initial thought on this matter - and bare in Mind that last time you seeked help here , you didn't listen to Attila's suggestion to hedge it with EURUSD. at that moment hedging made a lot of sense as price was relatively low. So, i hope you will be listening this time :

1-You can't long EURUSD now , because price is relatively High - and could go higher .. but if turns here , it won't go back for sometime ! ( I second Attila on that )

2- You need to inject money in your account to avoid the margin call and give you a breathing space ... half of the current lose will do for this week , but you may consider injecting extra Money. If i were you , i would work on the worst senario ( EURO at 1.40 before seening 1.27 )

3- You aim , and ONLY goal , is how to get the hell out of this position ... NOT MAKE MONEY OUT OF IT ( You must clear you mind and put it on one goal and one aim only , to avoid confusing your state mind and also each one of them will require different strategy )

3-A! IF you want to make money out of it , You gonna have to inject money that can cover your position up till ( EURO 1.70 /1.80 , the worst number that never happened )
3-B- Then , you will only take new position near these numbers : 1.34814 , 1.42950 , 1.49350 , 1.60 ( The lot size has to be half the number of the lowest lot you started with , which in this case will be 0.5 lot )

4- Now, lets take about gradual closing :

The trick here is not to close the trade at once and inquire the lose , but 1- how can you sustain the lose. 2- How to be reduce the lot size , in order to reduce the bleeding. what i will write here i did it by myself and saved myself losing all my account :

A- You will work with pending orders Only,( This mean , you place a Buy/Long USDCHF with a specific price when it hits , the order is activated ). you are no longer allow to trigger a trade based on your eye or whatever ...

B- Your Pending orders will target "Weekly Red Candles low " that hasn't been touched , price has a tendency to retrace at least from 25 - 50 pips there and sometimes reverse ... On USDCHF. Because , If you take a new short position EURUSD Meta trader will average them automatically , and will not allow you to close the new the position that's in profit.

C- You first 0.5 position , will be Long USDCHF at 0.90450. Second one , will be 0.89350 . There , price will have a bounce around 200-300 , and EURUSD will retrace back to 1.30 , maybe alittle bit lower 1.29 ( this should provide you with an exist with a small lose )

B- lets say we are right , about price bounced there and your trade in USDCHF is now in profit. You Go back to the lowest trade and calculate how much an open position from that point 1.27 if i remember correct - profit trade = in order to be zero. this oanda calculator can really help you :http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/profit-calculator/

So : Lets say , you have 1 lot at 1.27 , price now jumped to 1.33 ( you current lose is 4500 EUR ). You order on USDCHF is actived and you sit down waiting. Now, EURUSD retrace lets say 50 pip and your trade on USDCHF is profit around 35 pips. So, your profit 0.5 should be 289 EUR ! This means : If you close this position and reduce your EURUSD by 0.06 the two trades will equalize each other and equal zero. This will give you two advantages : if price goes up , your trade on USDCHF will not go underwater and inquire you additional loses & the bleeding will be reduced. But most importantly , your average price will go up , allowing you to exist early instead of waiting at 1.27 to come back. Your margin also will be freed from the freezed capital that you purchased the position with ( if you have a leverage 50 , this means you need 2000 Euros to take a 1 lot position ) and givening you more breath space till you get out.



This is what i would do in your position
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #733,311
  • Dec 16, 2012 3:38am Dec 16, 2012 3:38am
Quoting math_GB
You my friend... So badly corrupted in the mind...! ANY WAR anywhere in the universe (we know of) - not only world - will benefit DOLLAR...! Are you crazy....??? I suggest you check the major currencies from a historical view. I am proud of my Queen's Pound. But.... But I know I should never arrange a mortgage based on GBP. My GBP was wo
...............
I had to warn you....
math, oh, no, i agree with you.
Every war benefits dollar, but BETWEEN WARS use to happen what i said.
i may not express all i need to say in a correct way, but yes, we do not dissagree.
then, between wars, half planet damn US and accumulates euroz...
seems like wars are started just to put the dollar into the light again..., altough it's only 35% true.
cause i have no doubts that US economy is strong and can keep the beat; that's why i don't believe this will go up to 1.34, then 1.45.
i see too many people here that underestimate US economy.

kiwi trada, nice chart, we are in the dangerous zone
I'll shop after the drop
  • #733,312
  • Edited 5:09am Dec 16, 2012 3:40am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting valent1ne
Yes, pretty strage correlations at first sight, but you have to keep in mind the USD/JPY. Lots of money are being placed here and it's (or at last it was pre-ABE bullshiting) a diversify risk-off instruments. This pair rised a lot, for already known reasons by everyone. This is the main reason for this difference in the USD Index. If the JPY story wouldnt be in place, we will probably see the USD Index at even smaller level than Sep 14. Anyway more advanced calculation are necessary in order to establish where the USD Index should be given the rise...
Agreed. Until then we might wait for more facts with the stop hunts theory Too many things that might boost EURO to the extend no one expects. The same side of argument for bearish outlook too

I am not expecting drastic drop to AUD, NZD and CAD before a clear view on US Fiscal Cliff and JPY is obvious. More fireworks after 11:00 GMT polls on LDP
  • #733,313
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:16am Dec 16, 2012 4:16am
hi bulls/bears
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Wolves don't lose any sleep over the opinion of the sheep.
  • #733,314
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:18am Dec 16, 2012 4:18am
i may add around 3110ish if any

good luck
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Wolves don't lose any sleep over the opinion of the sheep.
  • #733,315
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:20am Dec 16, 2012 4:20am
Quoting FX Wolf
i may add around 3110ish if any

good luck
If don't mind me asking, what gives the confidence? Is it pure technical?
  • #733,316
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:28am Dec 16, 2012 4:28am
Quoting Ken A
If don't mind me asking, what gives the confidence? Is it pure technical?
first of 3152/53ish is supp and week closed above, i dunno if pulled back to 3110ish if it does i'll add because of supp around 3104/05
Wolves don't lose any sleep over the opinion of the sheep.
  • #733,317
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:30am Dec 16, 2012 4:30am
Quoting FX Wolf
first of 3152/53ish is supp and week closed above, i dunno if pulled back to 3110ish if it does i'll add because of supp around 3104/05
Thank you
  • #733,318
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:33am Dec 16, 2012 4:33am
Quoting FX Wolf
first of 3152/53ish is supp and week closed above, i dunno if pulled back to 3110ish if it does i'll add because of supp around 3104/05

BTW a classic pattern would be like this taking supp around 3150ish and shoots straight to 3275ish

daily(NY) close below 3150ish i'll be seller

g/l
Wolves don't lose any sleep over the opinion of the sheep.
  • #733,319
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:38am Dec 16, 2012 4:38am
see you guys at the open

later
Wolves don't lose any sleep over the opinion of the sheep.
  • #733,320
  • Dec 16, 2012 4:59am Dec 16, 2012 4:59am
Quoting sunilpawar
1.3192/96 ? or 1.3092/96?
it's 1.3192/96
Mohan
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