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EURUSD

  • #733,281
  • Dec 15, 2012 8:58pm Dec 15, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting Big1red9
DT,

At this moment in time, on paper your down 8k. If you close the position at this moment the 8k paper loss will become real.

To you, do you feel there is a difference and if so why. Details are important to understand your thoughts.
and... still need to know leverage at broker and ave price
  • #733,282
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:02pm Dec 15, 2012 9:02pm
Quoting Big1red9
I did not say you were quitting trading.

Your in a trade now. Does it matter to you, if this trade makes you back some of the money> Or can it be a new trade that does?
If you did not have a trade in place. At this moment, would you want to commit to entering a short on EURUSD as soon as the market opened?
  • #733,283
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:02pm Dec 15, 2012 9:02pm
Quoting Big1red9
DT,

At this moment in time, on paper your down 8k. If you close the position at this moment the 8k paper loss will become real.

To you, do you feel there is a difference and if so why. Details are important to understand your thoughts.
Paper loss and real loss are exactly the same thing - you can't withdraw the balance from your broker.
  • #733,284
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:08pm Dec 15, 2012 9:08pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Of course, theres a difference, if i close and it turns in my favour then I've already lost!! but if i hold and it go down then i may have chance to recover some of my loses back or even all if it goes down really sharp
my 2 cents..
yeah, it could go that way. but from what i am seeing atm, if 3184 is breached, then it may go to 3220ish.

then again, it may test 3126 again. and 3140 hasn't been tested yet.
  • #733,285
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:10pm Dec 15, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting Big1red9
If you did not have a trade in place. At this moment, would you want to commit to entering a short on EURUSD as soon as the market opened?
Yes I can enter a new trade if it will make me some money back...please tell me which trade to take??
  • #733,286
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:21pm Dec 15, 2012 9:21pm
Quoting Kanzler
Paper loss and real loss are exactly the same thing - you can't withdraw the balance from your broker.
I sense it is an emotional point for him. He has few choices. Unless he is with a off the wall bucket shop, my guess is there is not enough equity to hedge 100%. At this moment, risk is the #1 issue and it has to be reduced. Without a suggestion as to what to do, first step is to look at and define all options available.

1. Risk can be partially reduced by a partial hedge.. be it with EURUSD or something else.
2. Portion of the position can be closed to
3. Close the whole thing.

Once the path to reduce risk is understood and excepted, next step will be how to trade, what to trade, and how much to trade.

Other than the above, at this moment... it is a Vegas Roulette bet... red or black and the house has most of the bankroll.
  • #733,287
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:29pm Dec 15, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Yes I can enter a new trade if it will make me some money back...please tell me which trade to take??
DT.. your not ready to jump into a trade. Need to control the current issue first. Certainly you need to gain an understanding about HOW to trade something with lower risk than asking a stranger what to trade. There are some reasonable things you can do to be in control of your own trading and this is 2nd in line of importance. Learn these, control your risk and you can make it work. That is not to say with understanding, you can't trade along side someone.

It is my opinion, from a calender standpoint, where the EURUSD is positioned and the major news that could hit, you should not be as worried about being in a trade as understanding why your in it
  • #733,288
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:36pm Dec 15, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting Big1red9
DT.. your not ready to jump into a trade. Need to control the current issue first. Certainly you need to gain an understanding about HOW to trade something with lower risk than asking a stranger what to trade. There are some reasonable things you can do to be in control of your own trading and this is 2nd in line of importance. Learn these, control your risk and you can make it work. That is not to say with understanding, you can't trade along side someone.

It is my opinion, from a calender standpoint, where the EURUSD...
Are you saying it go DOWN??
  • #733,289
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:47pm Dec 15, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Are you saying it go DOWN??
No. I am not saying it is going up or down.
  • #733,290
  • Dec 15, 2012 9:54pm Dec 15, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
yup agree, will know when fat lady start singing, havnt trusted their propaganda machine for a long time

what you seeing for monday bro,
bull manage to register tiny weakness in bear defense line she can't just go head she have to come down before any further move hope Monday open below 92/96, above 3220 sos for bear , bear should be happy if it open below 82 where ever it open first trade should go for bear
Mohan
  • #733,291
  • Edited 10:30pm Dec 15, 2012 10:02pm | Edited 10:30pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Are you saying it go DOWN??
first you have to win back your confident .

2 away to finish this problem

1. Monday morning set s/l to your trade after spread established and forget about it .

2. hedge 100% (indirect s/l to cheat your self) and Take new trade based on market condition take profit when ever it possible , don't touch hedge trade . based on daily profit close part of your hedge using closed by option , this will help to save spread loss.

ps, dont forget s/l on new trade
Mohan
  • #733,292
  • Dec 15, 2012 10:06pm Dec 15, 2012 10:06pm
1.3135 area is what I'll be keeping an eye on when the market opens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #733,293
  • Dec 15, 2012 10:18pm Dec 15, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting valent1ne
Guys, check the volumes, check the fundamentals, check how fast the the EUR/USD (most traded pair) rised and how much other pairs were lagging to follow. Check the gold not moving at all. Check the stocks going down. It was nothing but a stop loss hunting instrumented by the big liquidity providers for the ECNs (market makers) as City and LLMAX + the smaller market makers as Oanda and friends. The only surprise is that it stopped out september high. That means that there were extremly huge blank orders (no algos, just big fat orders with "place...
Interesting
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,294
  • Dec 15, 2012 10:37pm Dec 15, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting mohan76
first you have to win back your confident .

2 away to finish this problem

1. Monday morning set s/l to your trade after spread established and forget about it .

2. hedge 100% (indirect s/l to cheat your self) and Take new trade based on market condition take profit when ever it possible , don't touch hedge trade . based on daily profit close part of your hedge using closed by option , this will help to save spread loss.

nah bro, this trade is very good example of everyting one shouldnt do, add to loser, overleverage, no sl, no real trade plan blah blah

Monday open will decide for anyone holding recent open trades, big gap up or down, will kill most them, bull and/or bear, older trades will have calculated risk of leaving open in their original trade plan calculations, most likely partial banked friday close, low liqidity and time of year my guess will only be much older trades held over.

Considering the time of year, liquidity, fundies, I wouldnt hold much faith in any level or tl breaches any time frame either

The key for now is waiting for retest now more than ever

My Friday Kiwi Trade, I did post when her poke toe through, was possible H&S but pretty ugly,and waited for retest, played out was just toe poked through, key was waiting for retest,
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If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #733,295
  • Dec 15, 2012 11:07pm Dec 15, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting math_GB
Obviously I can't... Who the f***k am I...? How can anyone know what the buyers had on their minds mate...? I trade what I see. And as long as we are abobe monthlt piv, I expect the PA pushing higher. I have mentioned in my previous post, I do expect somewhere along the line 1.2890 but also 1.3500s so have to trade accordingly. The unfinished job around 1.2450s and even 1.2280s will happen at some other point now. I am a clear buyer at 1.2900 now. But hey this is me, the little unexperienced retail FX guy. All I am saying is, it is time to...
i'm just asking.
Since everybody here seems to be easy to justify the NY moves, i guessed they have a clear and simple explanation...
obvious things are easy to explain, right?

Then, it seems no one knows what made such a move after London closed. I understand some people may have bullish exp on EURUSD, but i would be surprised only people US have such.... London and Asia are not fools as far as i know.... so i believe this move was overdone... and we'll probably get back to our feet at 1.31 by monday.
Current levels, @ big resistance, are a wonderful place to short.
  • #733,296
  • Dec 15, 2012 11:17pm Dec 15, 2012 11:17pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Yes and added more shorts @1.3000 and 1.3050
Monday will certainly fall back... this level is a gd place for shorts... IMHO
  • #733,297
  • Dec 15, 2012 11:20pm Dec 15, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Hey Bro
Charts always telling a story, just need to find it
EU Daily nice simple chart, but story line go

Look to Left, 25th Jan - 3rd May she ranged printing a descending triagle in a down trend !! first sign
then purple weekly open, "gap" missing Data" whatever, 2nd sign



What is this say me, Monday open is high possability of big "gap" pity anyone who left trades open over weekend, if they on wrong side right side will be ok but in reality just dodged a bullet.



Now the $64 ? is
Up or down you think.?
  • #733,298
  • Dec 15, 2012 11:26pm Dec 15, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting mohan76
bull manage to register tiny weakness in bear defense line she can't just go head she have to come down before any further move hope Monday open below 92/96, above 3220 sos for bear , bear should be happy if it open below 82 where ever it open first trade should go for bear
1.3192/96 ? or 1.3092/96?
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,299
  • Dec 15, 2012 11:26pm Dec 15, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
1.3135 area is what I'll be keeping an eye on when the market opens.
what for?
The Phoenix Trader....
  • #733,300
  • Dec 16, 2012 12:52am Dec 16, 2012 12:52am
Quoting FiatFap
It's interesting comparing momentum against your indy that calculates price differential. The two charts are the same but the y-axis paints two different pictures.

You said "EUR fly while gold consolidate" but momentum on the left shows gold and EU moving together in opposite directions with equal momentum. However, i'm only able to grab ~150 candles from the server (weekend), so i can't replicate your pic because you zoomed out.

Gold versus EU - momentum
http://i.imgur.com/HAXnO.png
Recent Gold vs Euro Movement D1:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355616234

Looks like you are comparing 2 different periods of interest as your chart seems to start from 12/10 to 12/14 while the point of interest on my 2nd Balloon said "12/14 EUR fly while gold consolidate"

The point here is while correlation may exist between Gold & Euro during a period of interest, one can't expect direct tick by tick correlation in momentum & magnitude.. Euro shoot up @12/14 1.3070~1.3172 after New York came online while Gold was struck 1692~1698 during the period of interest..

That being said.. should Gold resolve this hourly coil & pop over 1700, there's very good odd that Euro will print 1.32+ in a flash..

Gold vs Euro Movement H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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