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  • #733,201
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:23pm Dec 15, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting Avir
Early on friday this is how my bonus looked + £ 3732 when my TP got hit at 3101 ( it was meant to be TP'd at 3195 ). My wait was two months. made a mistake moved my TP from 3195 to 3101 and put a pending short at 3102 then @ 3116,3131 & 3162 - that was during asia. Just b4 CPI i was in good green again and when I warned Attilla that CPI on its way i closed all my shorts at 3083 when i thougt somming wrong (with green) !! but on one of my short term account i wanna to catch the top.. hence i had smaller lots in all the important SR's( few pips below...
This is all I cared in your post mate... Rest is irrelevant for now. I truly hope you make the most out of your plan. Just be foooking careful, don't ruin your valuable hours/days in the last weeks of the year. Actually, if you think you had done enough, just withdraw and end the year happily. I love people with family values...!Almost there... (merry chritmas...!)
  • #733,202
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:23pm Dec 15, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting valent1ne
Im not denying anything. I presented you from where my conclusion comes. But flamers gonna flame, no matter what. I presented my arguments, i didnt say anyone else is wrong and i am right. Up to you to decide if my arguments are ok or not, im not forcing you to anything. But as i said since my first post - all the gurus have the deep need of flaming.
I'm not a Guru and i'm not flamming at you - i just tell you , that your post sound like someone in denial ... Anyway, i was actually a bit surprised that you mentioned something i was thinking about... which is closing the week higher , since people will be making purchasing gifts and products during this weekend and the other one ?! or what you mentioned as good price for exchange rate. Also , the stop lose hunt it make sense on paper - but as an argument it doesn't really stand its place.

1- As for the exchange rate , this price is actually horrible for banks. Since banks want to buy low and sell high for the public. The last time they had dollars as cheap as possible was in September High 14th. This mean , a two month gap that managed to have cheap dollars ! If now, they sell USD against EUR , they would be making a Hugh lose - as probably they be buying EURS at 5 month high .. therefore, the argument should be invalid.

2- Stop lose hunt and margin calls , require the price to go even higher to inquire higher loses that force a margin call or at least position close out ... So, if we say underwater start from 1.27 , with majority at 1.30-1.31 .. price gonna have to reach higher to force these loses ! ( Which doesn't go with your analysis as price dropping )
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #733,203
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:25pm Dec 15, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting valent1ne
Guys, check the volumes, check the fundamentals, check how fast the the EUR/USD (most traded pair) rised and how much other pairs were lagging to follow. Check the gold not moving at all. Check the stocks going down. It was nothing but a stop loss hunting instrumented by the big liquidity providers for the ECNs (market makers) as City and LLMAX + the smaller market makers as Oanda and friends. The only surprise is that it stopped out september high. That means that there were extremly huge blank orders (no algos, just big fat orders with "place...
80 pips jump from the range high. you call it a stop hunt?

and why can't usd drop like a bomb?
  • #733,204
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:31pm Dec 15, 2012 1:31pm
Putting things into perspective, here's BoJ and their devious QEternity.

http://i.imgur.com/TPHY0.png

Chart shows last 3 months of daily candles and all cross yen pairs (xxxJPY) are thick lines. Yep, the dollar pairs are at the bottom, but it shows how desperate Japan are to debase their currency compared to US, but in the new year will the US carry on where they left off by debasing the dollar?

The FED is about to double it's funny money printing form $40billion per month to $85 billion per month of buying turd covered boxes of debt called MBS'.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,205
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:32pm Dec 15, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting math_GB
Mate... I mean this very friendly. I have ended my discussion with you from my end regarding the last incidence we had with you cause I think you will be here like us from now on. You did step in on the wrong foot but it is OK. I do hope you can make a sense of all those posts from my end and yours and understand why you have been perceived in a nasty way. Anyway...! All history now... We are all here, we are all trying to be succesfull with the little resources we have. And I truly wish we make the most we can, and we can succeed when we share...
However, this kind of sudden moves are a classic of fridays...
can you explain why? with arguments.
  • #733,206
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:35pm Dec 15, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting valent1ne
Guys, check the volumes, check the fundamentals, check how fast the the EUR/USD (most traded pair) rised and how much other pairs were lagging to follow. Check the gold not moving at all. Check the stocks going down. It was nothing but a stop loss hunting instrumented by the big liquidity providers for the ECNs (market makers) as City and LLMAX + the smaller market makers as Oanda and friends. The only surprise is that it stopped out september high. That means that there were extremly huge blank orders (no algos, just big fat orders with "place...
What you were saying about Friday's movement all were facts. Other than stop hunting, do you have other theories that you can think of? Why everything has to be short USD then long EURO to see the strength? How about other currencies which have nothing to do with Dollar, US Equities, commodities gold etc. priced in USD?
  • #733,207
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting Ken A
What you were saying about Friday's movement all were facts. Other than stop hunting, do you have other theories that you can think of? Why everything has to be short USD then long EURO to see the strength? How about other currencies which have nothing to do with Dollar, US Equities, commodities gold etc. priced in USD?
It's end of year price fix.

Get ready for the bullshit that is bank union next year, whence they want a super bank making TBTF look pithy. 'They' will not let the euro fail until all their bezzy mates have been paid their principal and coupon.

Also, the asians want a strong euro so there's more muppets to buy their plastic tat; the currency wars are stepping up; who will win the race to the bottom?
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,208
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm Dec 15, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting divak
However, this kind of sudden moves are a classic of fridays...
can you explain why? with arguments.
Friday is end of the week and is a day with less liquidty.
So is the moment they wait to do what thay want (move the price accordingly their expectations).
  • #733,209
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:47pm Dec 15, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting guernica
So is the moment they wait to do what thay want (move the price accordingly their expectations).
You speak of 'they' as if it's singular; friday was a coordinated / capitulated move.

Remember, that with all the funny fiat debt in europe, their master plan is to join US and Japan and debase the euro so payback to bondholders isn't as pricey.

When will the euro debase...is the question.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,210
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:57pm Dec 15, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting guernica
Friday is end of the week and is a day with less liquidty.
So is the moment they wait to do what thay want (move the price accordingly their expectations).
London has nothing to say about it?
The move only happened when London closed...

Can you detail me the expectations from London and Asia?
  • #733,211
  • Dec 15, 2012 1:59pm Dec 15, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting FiatFap
It's end of year price fix.

Get ready for the bullshit that is bank union next year, whence they want a super bank making TBTF look pithy. 'They' will not let the euro fail until all their bezzy mates have been paid their principal and coupon.

Also, the asians want a strong euro so there's more muppets to buy their plastic tat; the currency wars are stepping up; who will win the race to the bottom?
With such a bold statement, guess you know this for the facts or you are someone in the elite circles
  • #733,212
  • Edited 2:24pm Dec 15, 2012 2:00pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting math_GB
You are short biased obviously. It is OK, we have some bias, it is in our nature. May it be, my British pride or dislkike to continental Europe, I never enjoyed the EUR and I devalued it over time since the beginning. It came from 0.80s to 1.60s in a very short time (10 years is a very short time for such a Union)... Obviously I took it all wrong. I regret my bias very badly now. I could have made a fortune if I were not that stupid. If I wrote here, what I have done due to my bias, you would probably put me in your iggy straight away - FF could...

I am not short biased, beacuse i dont expect the EUR/USD to fall under 1.29. At that price i would buy it. And if somewone would ask me "should i short the EUR/USD" i would answer "i have no ideea" beacuse of the facts which you mentioned, which i also agree with you. I even cut the short from 1.3098 which i took and replaced it with one at 1.3147. My expectations are based on the volume traded as following:
-The increase in QE from 40bilion$ to 80 or 85billions$ (i knew about 80) was known since mid november. There is a company in a small European country who sends all this info to the banks and hedge funds to anyone who can pay them a sum with 4 zeros monthly. If i'll ever get the money to be able to pay that much, i'll surely subscribe.
-Check the volumes from the rises since mid november, remove from them the volume of the sell-off from the ECB last meeting (which again, i repeat, announced that they want a rate cut to the euro -> euro down), add the volumes from the rises till friday and u will get a highly positive number.
-That number is too big in low liquidity season (check almost record low level liqudity for the recent past)
-Most institutional clients dont want to end the week with many positions opened, what about an year.
-Given this facts there must be a long closing session - filled with shorts on the pair.

I dont know if it will be tomorrow, if it will be on 30 december, but i know it has to happen. And the type of the rise which we had on friday, will have to be on the opposite side with big volumes. As long as there is no big drop with big volume, i'm waiting for drop.

Also, i've came with the stop loss hunting fact, beacuse there were no correlations, except some probably hedge positions. You cant say the dollar devaluated, beacuse a dollar devaluation, as i learned at school of economics, has impact on the commodities payed with the dollar and any other products (especially US stocks). It is well known that gold lagged lately the dollar increase or decrease, but the stocks didnt. Watch a correlation betwen US stocks and the dollar and u will see what happened Friday hasnt happened in the recent past, beacuse as long as u sell your US stocks, priced in dollars, you are asking for dollars. Sell stocks - buy dollar = at last a small increase in the dollar. Current ecuation is like following:

Sell 1000$ stocks -> ask for 1000$ dollars ->an increase of 1000$ on the dollar -> Sell 1000$ dollars and buy euro/aud/nzd/gbp for them. Well this is wrong. Beacuse closely to nowone doesnt sell his US stocks and places his investment in Euro, after a rate cut planning announcement and the dollar still fell too much.

Quoting Ken A
How about other currencies which have nothing to do with Dollar, US Equities, commodities gold etc. priced in USD?
Unfortunately i am not watching too much prices, except of what a basic forex broker offers so i cant base my analysis on anything else. But hey, im targetting to use an advandced DMA platform once in the future. There i will see the prices of even the most retarded derivates possible, so then i'll base my analysis on that also.

Quoting divak
London has nothing to say about it?
The move only happened when London closed...
Actually there is an ongoing London vs US banks fight happening from time to time. There are days where one of the sides plan to do something nasty to the other side. And it's real, not a rumour.
  • #733,213
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:00pm Dec 15, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting divak
Can you detail me the expectations from London and Asia?
London and Asia are no different; banks carry intent 24/7 as they tag team orders using different traders within the same bank.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,214
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:07pm Dec 15, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting Ken A
With such a bold statement, guess you know this for the facts or you are someone in the elite circles
They are all corrupt bastards, their plan is obvious.

If i lent you £1,000 and promised to pay you back in 3 years with 5% interest, you'd expect ~£1,160.

If i then debase the pound, then in real terms i'd be paying you back pennies.

Next year, a few things will happen with certainty - BoJ will debase, BoE will debase and Fed will debase.

Mervyn King will be replaced by a squid manchurain Mark Carney (spent thirteen years with Goldman Sachs). Guess what their master plan will be?

The ECB and the shadow g'ment wants a NWO with a globalised bank and omnipotent power. They hate the idea of pesky sovereign entities who meddle with their own budgets and governance. They want all citizens to be their bitchez - serfdom is making a comeback and the tentacles of the squid reach far and wide.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,215
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:09pm Dec 15, 2012 2:09pm
Quoting FiatFap
London and Asia are no different; banks carry intent 24/7 as they tag team orders using different traders within the same bank.
then why no move until London closes??
  • #733,216
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:13pm Dec 15, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting FiatFap
They are all corrupt bastards, their plan is obvious.

If i lent you £1,000 and promised to pay you back in 3 years with 5% interest, you'd expect ~£1,160.

If i then debase the pound, then in real terms i'd be paying you back pennies.

Next year, a few things will happen with certainty - BoJ will debase, BoE will debase and Fed will debase.

Mervyn King will be replaced by a squid manchurain Mark Carney (spent thirteen years with Goldman Sachs). Guess what their master plan will be?

The ECB and the shadow g'ment wants a...
Amuse me with who are 'they' and with your statement you are in King's camp
  • #733,217
  • Edited 11:41pm Dec 15, 2012 2:15pm | Edited 11:41pm
Wonder what happens next week.
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #733,218
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:18pm Dec 15, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting Ken A
Amuse me with who are 'they' and with your statement you are in King's camp
Yes it amusing to pontificate and question our masters.

I refer to 'them' as a collective bunch of assholes in shadow g'ments. The obummers et al, are just front-men, puppets who pander to corporate needs.

There is no real democracy and the idea of septuagenarians huddled around a table counting ballot papers or punching buttons on a machine is asinine. As easy as it is to send a parcel anywhere in the World and get a unique tracking number, then why can't i do the same with my vote.

So in reply to your question...'they' are the faceless, nameless shadow men who pull the strings.
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #733,219
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:22pm Dec 15, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting FiatFap
Yes it amusing to pontificate and question our masters.

I refer to 'them' as a collective bunch of assholes in shadow g'ments. The obummers et al, are just front-men, puppets who pander to corporate needs.

There is no real democracy and the idea of septuagenarians huddled around a table counting ballot papers or punching buttons on a machine is asinine. As easy as it is to send a parcel anywhere in the World and get a unique tracking number, then why can't i do the same with my vote.

So in reply to your question...'they' are the faceless,...
OH, what shall you do?
  • #733,220
  • Dec 15, 2012 2:28pm Dec 15, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting Ken A
OH, what shall you do?
As long as Uncle Mervyn keeps giving me info, i'm fine
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
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