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Is selling low/buying high possible?

  • #21
  • Dec 13, 2012 9:16pm Dec 13, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting Turveyd
Correct no BS predictions and picking entry points, market is going up find a place to enter and go with it, trading is as simple as that, if you can let it be.
The problem is that the market is fractal....on a lower time frame you are picking a top or bottom. The goal is to minimize risk while maximizing reward...if you don't pick the top or bottom of some move (setting a stop-loss at where you know you're wrong), such as a retracement, and just let losses run I can't see how that would be a winning strategy.
  • #22
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:40am Dec 14, 2012 4:40am
Quoting Kanzler
The problem is that the market is fractal....on a lower time frame you are picking a top or bottom. The goal is to minimize risk while maximizing reward...if you don't pick the top or bottom of some move (setting a stop-loss at where you know you're wrong), such as a retracement, and just let losses run I can't see how that would be a winning strategy.
Totally agree with you mate. It really hard to identify & pick tops or bottoms when we have high influential news like election, wars, disasters, economical matters, etc.
  • #23
  • Dec 14, 2012 11:45am Dec 14, 2012 11:45am
Quoting Alanamc
Totally agree with you mate. It really hard to identify & pick tops or bottoms when we have high influential news like election, wars, disasters, economical matters, etc.
I've given up on trying to analyze the news / fundamentals....too many varaibles involved and it seems the market ignores it 90% of the time anyway, and the other 10% of the time does the complete opposite of expected. I'm reading a book by a retired trader Al Brooks and in it he shows quite a few examples of why it should generally be ignored. I'm not profitable but I'm going to simplify my trading by just going with what I have on the charts and playing the opportunities as they come along.
  • #24
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:23pm Dec 14, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting Kanzler
The problem is that the market is fractal....on a lower time frame you are picking a top or bottom. The goal is to minimize risk while maximizing reward...if you don't pick the top or bottom of some move (setting a stop-loss at where you know you're wrong), such as a retracement, and just let losses run I can't see how that would be a winning strategy.

Retracements aren't always Retracements, sometimes they are new moves and will continue in that direction then any SL pretty much will get hit, so if the markets been going up all day and it starts to go down, don't wait for it to bottom and try to pick a bottom to go Long on, enter at a sensible location short and make on the retracement, sometimes the retracement gets legs and goes 40pips, sometimes it'll go 5 take what it gives you. Master the entry and you don't need more than a 5 + spread SL to do this generally.

It's taken years to get to this way of actual trading but it's getting there.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #25
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:26pm Dec 14, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting Kanzler
I've given up on trying to analyze the news / fundamentals....too many varaibles involved and it seems the market ignores it 90% of the time anyway, and the other 10% of the time does the complete opposite of expected. I'm reading a book by a retired trader Al Brooks and in it he shows quite a few examples of why it should generally be ignored. I'm not profitable but I'm going to simplify my trading by just going with what I have on the charts and playing the opportunities as they come along.

Know when the news is, don't be in with a tight SL over a NFP type news event as it can move 50pips past your SL and if your a 7 SL kinda gut that's many many times your allotted risk rate, but never read the news as you'll form a bias and more often than not your bias will be worthless and the market will go against you and you'll try to fight it, it should be going down, short more, noooo why it doesn't make sense SHORT !!! bye bye account.

Don't fight the market, merely jump on it and ride it then exit when required.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #26
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:40pm Dec 14, 2012 2:40pm
Do I understand correct or I need more coffee?
I mean... If I could figured out in real time what is a low and what is a high..
Why would I want to sell in a low and buy in a high?

J.
  • #27
  • Dec 14, 2012 2:46pm Dec 14, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting jeuro
Do I understand correct or I need more coffee?
I mean... If I could figured out in real time what is a low and what is a high..
Why would I want to sell in a low and buy in a high?

J.

You can't figure out what a low or high is live, they look easy after the event but this is not possible, yes you'll get lucky at times, yes if you run a tight SL take your small hits and let the momentum let it run when possible you can still profit from it.

Spread size is a bitch it those 2 - 3 pips make profiting from above so much harder, role on ECN broker and 1/2ing my spread size with the comm's.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #28
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:01pm Dec 14, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Turveyd
You can't figure out what a low or high is live, they look easy after the event but this is not possible, yes you'll get lucky at times, yes if you run a tight SL take your small hits and let the momentum let it run when possible you can still profit from it.

Spread size is a bitch it those 2 - 3 pips make profiting from above so much harder, role on ECN broker and 1/2ing my spread size with the comm's.

You are missing the point... and that is why I said .."If" I could ...because no one can.
The point is "if" I could.. why would I want to sell when low or buy when is high??? get it??? it is the opposite.

J.
  • #29
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:30pm Dec 14, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Turveyd
Retracements aren't always Retracements, sometimes they are new moves and will continue in that direction then any SL pretty much will get hit, so if the markets been going up all day and it starts to go down, don't wait for it to bottom and try to pick a bottom to go Long on, enter at a sensible location short and make on the retracement, sometimes the retracement gets legs and goes 40pips, sometimes it'll go 5 take what it gives you. Master the entry and you don't need more than a 5 + spread SL to do this generally.

It's taken years to...
I just want to say first that I respect your experience and I'm only asking to learn, not to be snide, but what do you mean by a "sensible location"? That's a very vague and subjective way of phrasing things and can mean just about anything to any number of traders. Do you mean above a price action bar setups? Above the recent swing high? We have to select some location we believe will prove us wrong that the market is going in the direction we believe it will be going.

Quoting Turveyd
Know when the news is, don't be in with a tight SL over a NFP type news event as it can move 50pips past your SL and if your a 7 SL kinda gut that's many many times your allotted risk rate, but never read the news as you'll form a bias and more often than not your bias will be worthless and the market will go against you and you'll try to fight it, it should be going down, short more, noooo why it doesn't make sense SHORT !!! bye bye account.

Don't fight the market, merely jump on it and ride it then exit when required.
I agree, if you do something with a tight stop like scalping you have to keep an eye on news, but generally it seems on the daily or higher news events have minimal impact relative to the range we're talking. Technicals seem to dictate quite a bit.
  • #30
  • Dec 14, 2012 3:45pm Dec 14, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting jeuro
You are missing the point... and that is why I said .."If" I could ...because no one can.
The point is "if" I could.. why would I want to sell when low or buy when is high??? get it??? it is the opposite.

J.
Sorry BAD week!! that's okay then!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #31
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:00pm Dec 14, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting Kanzler
I just want to say first that I respect your experience and I'm only asking to learn, not to be snide, but what do you mean by a "sensible location"? That's a very vague and subjective way of phrasing things and can mean just about anything to any number of traders. Do you mean above a price action bar setups? Above the recent swing high? We have to select some location we believe will prove us wrong that the market is going in the direction we believe it will be going.



I agree, if you do something with a tight stop like scalping you have to...

All my experience still only gets me profitable in runs not consistent yet, but it's NEAR I think, but I've been thinking that for some time, knowing what to do and actually doing it and trusting are to entirely different things and the hardest part.

Example look at M1 EU today, price ~1.3130 price stalled, long with a 5SL could of gotten you 35pips easy ( put a Envelope 15 sma 0.01% Dev that's my current best view on short term market momentum ).

2 Options, get in near the low and see what happens, go long on a break above the previous high 1.3140 area which is a better example of buying high, it's safer win rate wise.

If your daily trading you need a 400 SL realistically to start with, so a 80pip instant move won't affect you, if your trading at 3% risk with a 7SL then you could easily lose 50pips on a gap 21% of your account.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #32
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:14pm Dec 14, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
All my experience still only gets me profitable in runs not consistent yet, but it's NEAR I think, but I've been thinking that for some time, knowing what to do and actually doing it and trusting are to entirely different things and the hardest part.

Example look at M1 EU today, price ~1.3130 price stalled, long with a 5SL could of gotten you 35pips easy ( put a Envelope 15 sma 0.01% Dev that's my current best view on short term market momentum ).

2 Options, get in near the low and see what happens, go long on a break above the previous...
Hey, I really appreciate your honesty - way too many people here try to BS you into believing they're a trading god or something. Back when I was doing indicator trading on demo I'd written some EAs to test different averaging and crossover strategies....it all comes out null in the end, negative if you factor in spread. The only way I think you can make money in this game is by using price action supported by some other form....I'm currently studying how it reacts at the most clear examples of S/R, but in effect it is bottom/top picking. On the daily it seems to be fairly reliable, though. I guess I'll find out how it performs in real time over the next few months though. Scalping the 1 min is way too risky for my taste though with the spreads I pay.

And daily doesn't need anything near 400 pips on the EUR/USD....that largest entry here is 80 pips, often much less.
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  • #33
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:33pm Dec 14, 2012 4:33pm
Quoting Kanzler
Hey, I really appreciate your honesty - way too many people here try to BS you into believing they're a trading god or something. Back when I was doing indicator trading on demo I'd written some EAs to test different averaging and crossover strategies....it all comes out null in the end, negative if you factor in spread. The only way I think you can make money in this game is by using price action supported by some other form....I'm currently studying how it reacts at the most clear examples of S/R, but in effect it is bottom/top picking. On the...

No point lying to myself or people I don't really know or care what they think either way, which is why everyone claims to be a trading god!!

Spreads are a pain, if you work out my spread charges over the years they likely come to 10K area, as I'm down 2K area I'd be +8K here without factoring in more money bigger lot sizes, with that +100K is most likely, damn spreads.

D1 looks good kinda in history, in reality Live, you'll second guess yourself you won't spot it till it's to late then your SL is to big, your buy point will come and go while your asleep and loads of other factors, Live is so much harder.

I mainly trade DAX these days as 1pip spread, my EJ trade in the week took 30mins just to cover the 4pip spread need to go ECN soon, BMtrading.co.uk most likely cheapest spread / commision I can find.

Price action differs to many people, my take is market tests 1.3100 and every time it gets near price jumps up quickly, someone big is buying join them, ofcourse that's no use for D1 trades, Candle stick patterns are just made up rubbish be warned, candles are randomly formed.

It's all about direction, interestingly my current template is working well on D1, after the fact, live wouldn't like to say.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #34
  • Dec 14, 2012 4:37pm Dec 14, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Kanzler

And daily doesn't need anything near 400 pips on the EUR/USD....that largest entry here is 80 pips, often much less.

400 for a trend following system depending on the pair ofcourse, able to handle a few down days, S/R method like your chart yeah 40-80 would make sense.

Nice no BS chart setup there.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #35
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:41pm Dec 14, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Turveyd
No point lying to myself or people I don't really know or care what they think either way, which is why everyone claims to be a trading god!!

Spreads are a pain, if you work out my spread charges over the years they likely come to 10K area, as I'm down 2K area I'd be +8K here without factoring in more money bigger lot sizes, with that +100K is most likely, damn spreads.
I have a small account I started out with $100 in, and I've spent at least $25 on spreads while losing money in general....I figure I should just trade less to minimize this cost, because it takes a bite.

Quote
D1 looks good kinda in history, in reality Live, you'll second guess yourself you won't spot it till it's to late then your SL is to big, your buy point will come and go while your asleep and loads of other factors, Live is so much harder.
Maybe, maybe not; I'm running this setup in demo for a while just so I can find out if what I see is really there or if I'm just fooling myself. Those areas I'd circled are trades I would have taken at broker daily bar close (which is 4PM local time....just log on ten minutes before and do analysis once a day, no big deal), because the lines drawn are auto-generated by a computer program I'd written which identify S/R zones, and those areas would have been identified before the price setup came into being. With daily bars price action setups are a lot more reliable than on the smaller time frames and with almost everybody watching them, I have to feel that there's at least at 60% chance of pattern success. The key here is identifying the areas prior to price reaching it, not fitting zones that don't exist to what you see later. When price reacts in a classic way to something you forecast, it boosts confidence quite a bit in your trade.

Quote
I mainly trade DAX these days as 1pip spread, my EJ trade in the week took 30mins just to cover the 4pip spread need to go ECN soon, BMtrading.co.uk most likely cheapest spread / commision I can find.

Price action differs to many people, my take is market tests 1.3100 and every time it gets near price jumps up quickly, someone big is buying join them, ofcourse that's no use for D1 trades, Candle stick patterns are just made up rubbish be warned, candles are randomly formed.

It's all about direction, interestingly my current template is working...
I can't agree that candles are rubbish. They often form a little differently between brokers because of when the broker considers open and close time, but most agree on 5PM New York time. In either case, candles can help to see what price did during that period. A pinbar from an area you expected strong resistance at is a good indication that strong bulls entered the market and bears were looking to exit, and that price is likely to reverse. An exact science? No, but nothing that can be executed by an algorithm in trading lasts long if the method is known by more than one person or institution. That's the efficient market for you and why I consider trading to be an art, even though I would love to be able to write programs to make me a bunch of money automatically.
  • #36
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:44pm Dec 14, 2012 5:44pm
Quoting Kanzler
I have a small account I started out with $100 in, and I've spent at least $25 on spreads while losing money in general....I figure I should just trade less to minimize this cost, because it takes a bite.
It's tricky, trading less means less profits or holding trades with small profits which you'd of taken which then go to a loss, comes back to NULL again most likely.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #37
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:48pm Dec 14, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting Turveyd
It's tricky, trading less means less profits or holding trades with small profits which you'd of taken which then go to a loss, comes back to NULL again most likely.
Any consistent profit can be leveraged into a fortune, the exact quantity isn't very important. I'd be happy making 1 pip a month if I knew I could expect 1 pip a month average per year, because I could scale that up to a large number of lots and not move the market any at all with the volume forex deals with. As for trade management once you're in, that's something entirely different to tackle. I wouldn't be testing this method if I thought I was going to get stopped out every time; realistic expectations and trade management strategies are just as important as entries, although I find that it's rarely discussed unfortunately. Once I find that I'm doing well on entries I'm definitely going to be shoring that up next.
  • #38
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:51pm Dec 14, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting Kanzler
Maybe, maybe not; I'm running this setup in demo for a while just so I can find out if what I see is really there or if I'm just fooling myself. Those areas I'd circled are trades I would have taken at broker daily bar close (which is 4PM local time....just log on ten minutes before and do analysis once a day, no big deal), because the lines drawn are auto-generated by a computer program I'd written which identify S/R zones, and those areas would have been identified before the price setup came into being. With daily bars price action setups are...
Hard to say on the fooling yourself, it's tricky not many people are objective enough to step back and say this is rubbish and start again.

I'd have to study it more to comment, trust your maths I guess.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #39
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:55pm Dec 14, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting Kanzler
I can't agree that candles are rubbish. They often form a little differently between brokers because of when the broker considers open and close time, but most agree on 5PM New York time. In either case, candles can help to see what price did during that period. A pinbar from an area you expected strong resistance at is a good indication that strong bulls entered the market and bears were looking to exit, and that price is likely to reverse. An exact science? No, but nothing that can be executed by an algorithm in trading lasts long if the method...

putting far to much significance into, High / Low / Open / Close, if you study them from a stat's basis 1 on it's own doesn't give any edge at all, a group of up candles with higher highs and higher lows is a good uptrend though, but on there own.

I tried EA writing years ago, I'm a programmer, but vow not to waste more time on that, computers can't think there a pain to teach even basic logic.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #40
  • Dec 14, 2012 5:58pm Dec 14, 2012 5:58pm
Quoting Turveyd
putting far to much significance into, High / Low / Open / Close, if you study them from a stat's basis 1 on it's own doesn't give any edge at all, a group of up candles with higher highs and higher lows is a good uptrend though, but on there own.

I tried EA writing years ago, I'm a programmer, but vow not to waste more time on that, computers can't think there a pain to teach even basic logic.
I don't use them on their own, I use them as confirmation that a level I identified is still potent. I've done my own check on price action setups through past charts and I know out of context they're about worthless and fail all the time. If you can't rely on price action to tell you what's going on though, at least in the context of support and resistance, there's not much of a point in trading.

Quoting Turveyd
Hard to say on the fooling yourself, it's tricky not many people are objective enough to step back and say this is rubbish and start again.

I'd have to study it more to comment, trust your maths I guess.
I don't have hard data on it either yet, just some subjective personal backtesting. Definitely don't trust other people without looking into it yourself though.
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