Euro/Dollar

I know I'm in a risky trade... I hate trading on Friday, especially NFP days.... I wanted to go long ahead of 1.2880, but I didn't expect to be here TODAY.... way too early....

Playin' it safe, as you know Risk/Reward is my game...

I am starting to see scare over the fake cliff as dollar negative across several pairs lately... instead of correlating with S&P500 risk off during a scare.... maybe to soon to say definitively, but that's the feel I'm getting....

Will this man get my stop picked off early in Asian trade?

.

If the market gets Spain's Ten year bond yields up to 6%, will it spark a fresh Spain bailout request Hopium rally?

Closing the other half back here at 1.2935....

Still think 1.2970 is in the cards,... at least... but I also think the year is winding down, vols are dwindling.... I don't HAVE to be a trade....

I don't think I will trade any more till after the new year....

AUDUSD in the sell zone 1.0525 to 1.0550 for a longer term short play...

This swing should complete its topping pattern...

I've decided to close my books for the year so won't be taking it....

Play would be against 1.0625 prior high....

I have decided to stay out the rest of the year. I had always planned to stop trade the last two weeks of December, because as conditions get thin, price gets jumpy, and tends to respect technical levels less.

I am already out before the last two weeks because I have two counts as shown on the chart below, and I am not sure early in the week which is correct.... confidence in direction will only come through farther price action into FOMC Thursday, and that doesn't leave time for a trade this week.

Elliott provides many instances when the picture is clear, trades can be put on with amazing accuracy with very definite stops allowing precise risk/reward calculations. Those are the times to be trading. At other times the counts conflict, the picture is unclear, and the best bet is to stand aside. The goal we must have is to keep the gains we make. Plenty of opportunities exist that it isn't necessary to play every swing.

It is necessary to stay in touch with the market you trade, so I am still following EURUSD, even while investing some serious study time these next few weeks in the never ending quest to improve, rather than trading.

Below is my preferred count along with the chief alternate. They conflict making a trade for me unwise.... at least till we see a bit more chart... during/after the FOMC today should peel the curtain back.

Sometimes, the chart just needs one more bar to bring the picture into focus... This one needs more than one, but it will get a lot more clear as the day unfolds.

I was expecting a correction back into the price territory of wave iv aqua challenging 1.2880...


But... the reversal happened very sharply and very very quick.... a wave 4 in silver degree back to 1.2880 was expected, but not a sharp family correction.... because wave 2 silver was of the sharp family. The principle of alteration leads me to prefer complex correction for wave 4 silver degree..... and this causes me some doubts.

At this time we don't have enough information to say for sure that the decline from 1.3126 to 1.2876 is a completed ABC in Aqua, which constitutes the entire interior waves of wave 4 silver. ... yet it seems to count out best that way, even if it conflicts with the principle of alteration.

The same decline could be counted as 5 waves and make up only wave (a) of aqua, but I don't like the proportionality of that count.... It feels unnatural.... forced.

which leaves me to prefer counting the entire run down from 1.3126 in the box on the chart below as a completed ABC in aqua that forms the interior waves of a completed wave 4 silver.... but that leaves the nagging doubt born from the missing expected alteration.

This nonetheless, preferred count would have us beginning a five wave up move that will take out 1.3126 to complete wave 5 silver degree.

Alternately, (see alt (a) and alt (b) on chart)....

until we have more information, we have to keep out mind open to the chance that the decline from 1.3126 to 1.2876 is only the first leg in either an ABC or other larger complex corrective pattern that will complete wave 4 silver at some point.

This alternate count buts the rise from 1.2876 as a probably wave (b) aqua, but it could also be the beginnings of a more complex pattern that will take time to resolve....

If we are in wave (b) aqua, I would expect a five wave decline to follow to put in the wave (c) aqua that will complete wave 4 silver.... or a nasty sideways corrective pattern that is common in a wave 4..... and seems appropriate given the season.


So, to me the picture is unclear until more chart unfolds. It could go either way, and my best bet is with my money in my pocket. Since we are knocking on the door to the last two weeks of the year, I am done for the year.

I never worry about missing moves.... even if I miss a big volatile run on fake cliff news... so be it.... There will be plenty of better entries just around the corner.

Exact market position will get a lot more clear after the likely emotional trade during the FOMC press conference causes the market to draw out a definitive direction.

morning all

here is my current view, trade safe

It's at a complicated level now and worth re-looking at the higher TFs...

Monthly: price is correcting the 0.822x to 1.603x up swing and has so far made a complex 50% correction complete with a double bottom. Price currently sits around the 38% mark

Weekly: looking at the last swing down in that monthly correction on the weekly chart 1.493x to 1.204x you can see that it made a very clean 5 wave trend move ending right on target (see chart W1 and that was great trading )

this leaves us in a correction on the weekly timescale (see chart W2) which has so far completed 38% and has two primary target zones 1.331x to 1.336x and 1.378x to 1.383x

Daily: looking at the correction of the last swing down 1.348x to 1.204x it has completed 78% at 1.316x which is a potential tipping point and the correction has become complex with multiple swings. Any move above 316x will put the weekly target zones in play, otherwise we should consider this correction probably at it's ceiling and look for downward pressure for now.

H4: the 4 hour chart (see chart H4) is currently correcting the last upswing 1.266x to 1.312x which has completed in a good 5 wave trend move which provides better confidence that we are in a correction of that move.
It is a little messy here as it has so far completed 50% with the move down to 1.287x so could be complete, BUT it did so in a single violent move which makes that unlikely and gives us some downside target zones 1.286x to 1.283x and 1.279x to 1.276x.


So the short term trade plan.....

Below 1.306x short for the H4 correction
Above 1.312x long for the weekly correction

Hi,

What's the sharp family is it similar to the zig zag family as concepts of Elliott wave theory?

Thanks.

From Elliot Wave Principle Bob Prechter,

Page 63 - 64
"Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orothodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzags (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. "

Alteration is a guideline and not a rule... we would like very much to see it, but it is not a requirement.

A. Hamilton Bolton,
"The writer is not convinced that alteration is inevitable in types of waves in larger formations, but there are frequent enough cases to suggest that one should look for it rather than the contrary".

Since I have the Prechter book open,... the reason this matters to me, is the alternate count puts us in wave (b) aqua.... and wave (b) is not a place to be messing around in the market...

Bob Prechter,

"B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both)..... "

AUDUSD at critical 1.0550 level....

exceeding 1.0624 breaks the count everyone has on AUDUSD......

There should be tons of supply at this level to prevent price from breaking higher..... if it manages to climb through all that supply and break 1.0624 the floodgates will be opened....

My preferred count one hour before European Equity open...

(v) Fuchsia of 5 Red of (iii) Aqua absolute minimum has just been achieved by slightly exceeding the FOMC spike high.... Exact top not known yet, but I expect it to be near, followed by a correction to unfold into the buy zone box, putting in wave (iv) aqua) of wave 5 silver.

Wave (iv) aqua failed to reach the most common fib target of 38.2% at 1.3018, but instead took a very common path for a wave 4... that of a triangle, that achieved 23.6% pullback, another common fib relationship associated with wave 4's.

The move back above the 1.3126 former high appears to have formed three of its needed 5 interior waves.

EURUSD mid term is still bullish. It has formed a tripple top and is just below the Bollinger upper band. Breaking Friday's and Monday closes above the Bollinger upper band will set 1.345 in focus.

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You have to ask yourself when you come across one of these scumbags....

1. if they know anything about trading, why don't they make their living trading instead of selling information about trading?

2. If they have something of any value to sell, how come their advertising budget is so small they can't afford to buy advertising, but have to resort to spam as their means of advertising their product.

Hey all
All commercial members will be baned from our thread - sorry we are not interested in signals, skype rooms all that crap,
Spammers and scammers are everywhere - you don't have to pay a penny to understand the markets, many great and honest people are willing to share their views for free so keep reading and learning.
I live in France at the moment so barely have time for charts and I do not have internet in my flat so cannot do analisys, but....
1,3500 is a must before any other number, we are still in a bullish scenario we could drop from 1,3260 as well but my TP is at 1.35
monthly, weekly (best TF to spot current trend) says this buying could last till end of the year.
I wish to say thank you to Forex Factory for my first year, to all people who influenced me as a trader, and to many who did teach me a lot of things without even knowing about it, this is a great forum, full of great minds so keep reading and share your knowledge with new guys.
kind regards
Tom