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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,241
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:54pm Dec 13, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting msood
I have started testing a daily version of the safe range projections; today's s-range:

1.3086
1.3063

This is experimental, so please don't trade based solely on these numbers. If we get a good hit rate, I will detail possible strategies to trade these ranges later.

Please note my day starts 9:00am EST (Sydney)
me too 10min chart 3062/3063. I wait line below 3070 to short.
  • #63,242
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:13pm Dec 13, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting prosiak
me too 10min chart 3062/3063. I wait line below 3070 to short.


though, pls don't rely on these numbers directly for any trades.
  • #63,243
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:59pm Dec 13, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting prosiak
closed...
Hard earned money right there
  • #63,244
  • Dec 13, 2012 8:02pm Dec 13, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting msood
I have started testing a daily version of the safe range projections; today's s-range:

1.3086
1.3063

This is experimental, so please don't trade based solely on these numbers. If we get a good hit rate, I will detail possible strategies to trade these ranges later.

Please note my day starts 9:00am EST (Sydney)
s-High level met (1.3086)
  • #63,245
  • Dec 13, 2012 8:15pm Dec 13, 2012 8:15pm
Previous High 1.3127, a fare chance today to have a new High.

So Buy if it drops 40-50 pips. (1.3040-50 area)
Sale if it rises 50-60 Pips. (1.3140-50 area)

Probably no action in between, as I don't like to be a sandwitch.
  • #63,246
  • Edited 8:37pm Dec 13, 2012 8:27pm | Edited 8:37pm
Quoting rekon67
Previous High 1.3127, a fare chance today to have a new High.

So Buy if it drops 40-50 pips. (1.3040-50 area)
Sale if it rises 50-60 Pips. (1.3140-50 area)

Probably no action in between, as I don't like to be a sandwitch.
lots of offers I think around the 3107 area
  • #63,247
  • Dec 13, 2012 10:00pm Dec 13, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting Alorente
Hello PT. I agree with your analysis 100%. Your weekly chart is a keeper. In return, here are 2 charts that pretty much tell the story. The first is the Daily, where we can see EurUsd testing the upper yellow channel wall for what I expect will be the last time. Soon, we should start our way to the bottom channel wall and hit it under 1.20 sometime in January or February. The second chart is the weekly, where we can see the yellow channel in the context of a much larger purple channel. A test of the bottom purple channel wall is very possible and...
Good morning Mr. Alorente..
IMHO the EURUSD top is nowhere in sight.. much better paid to be a "Bull Fighter" & a lot less stressful to be in harmony with the prevailing immediate HTF Bias..
There's plenty of pips to be have when this thing finally turn.. but not yet.. fwiw..

"When everybody & Pavlov's dogs are selling you buy & when they start buying you sell.." Fx_ConfusCious.. LOL

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355454729

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355454729

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355454729

Trade safe & hoard Cheerios..
  • #63,248
  • Edited 11:58pm Dec 13, 2012 11:33pm | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting rekon67
Previous High 1.3127, a fare chance today to have a new High.

So Buy if it drops 40-50 pips. (1.3040-50 area)
Sale if it rises 50-60 Pips. (1.3140-50 area)

Probably no action in between, as I don't like to be a sandwitch.
IF NO BAD NEWS, slim chance to drop below 1.3062 today London and New York. Whatever business down there was already done this evening in NY and London.


EUR/USD & EUR/JPY H4.

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  • #63,249
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:00am Dec 14, 2012 12:00am
Shorted AUD/USD due to weekly downward TL @ 1.055 and shorted NZD/USD @ .8424 as there was a shooting star on yesterday's daily close.

**However, I am NOT liking this bearish bias that I have been letting get to me... I am going to regret all of these shorts if risk assets start making new highs again... I keep trying to pick the tops but market keeps moving up.

So far, bullish momentum is not going away, I don't think the big boys are going to let prices drop until later the very end of the year.

I have a feeling that the EUR is going to bust through the 1.312 resistance tonight and create a new high which hasn't been seen since April of this year.

Anyways, NZD stop above yesterday's daily high @ .846. Will close AUD above weekly TL @ 1.06 or so. EUR short will close if 1.32 is breached.

Closed out A/J longs for some nice gains, still holding E/A longs...
  • #63,250
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:00am Dec 14, 2012 12:00am
Quoting Ken A
IF NO BAD NEWS, slim chance to drop below 1.3062 today London and New York. Whatever business down there was already done this evening in NY and London.


EUR/USD & EUR/JPY H4.


Attachment

Remember today is Friday
  • #63,251
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:02am Dec 14, 2012 12:02am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Shorted AUD/USD due to weekly downward TL @ 1.055 and shorted NZD/USD @ .8424 as there was a shooting star on yesterday's daily close.

**However, I am NOT liking this bearish bias that I have been letting get to me... I am going to regret all of these shorts if risk assets start making new highs again... I keep trying to pick the tops but market keeps moving up.

Bullish momentum is not going away, I don't think the big boys are going to let prices drop until later the very end of the year.

I have a feeling that the EUR is going...
There was a strong bid for AUD/USD this evening at 1.0500/10 hence the shooting star.
  • #63,252
  • Edited 12:13am Dec 14, 2012 12:03am | Edited 12:13am
Quoting rekon67
Remember today is Friday
Indeed.

Watch this: German Flash Manufacturing PMI - could be the catalyst to break 1.3100.
  • #63,253
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:07am Dec 14, 2012 12:07am
Quoting rekon67
Remember today is Friday
Yes, this week has been mostly bullish so HOPEFULLY we will get our typical "profit taking" which normally occurs on Friday

Would love to finally see some bearish momentum as it seems many of the majors (EUR/AUD/NZD) are sitting at some nice resistance zones / significant TL's.

Time will tell.
  • #63,254
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:15am Dec 14, 2012 12:15am
Spoke too early, 1.3100 was taken out.
  • #63,255
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:21am Dec 14, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Ken A
Spoke too early, 1.3100 was taken out.
Add 40 pips to that, 1.3140 is what I am looking for primary re-action from sellers.
  • #63,256
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:24am Dec 14, 2012 12:24am
Quoting rekon67
Add 40 pips to that, 1.3140 is what I am looking for primary re-action from sellers.
It might be for +20 -30 quick pips. Still wary to open short at this level as most of the road blocks are out of the way pending US Fiscal Cliff. PA has unfinished business with the shorts accumulated pre QE3 Sept 2012. There are buy stops also above 1.31750.
  • #63,257
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:25am Dec 14, 2012 12:25am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Shorted AUD/USD due to weekly downward TL @ 1.055 and shorted NZD/USD @ .8424 as there was a shooting star on yesterday's daily close.

**However, I am NOT liking this bearish bias that I have been letting get to me... I am going to regret all of these shorts if risk assets start making new highs again... I keep trying to pick the tops but market keeps moving up.

So far, bullish momentum is not going away, I don't think the big boys are going to let prices drop until later the very end of the year.

I have a feeling that the EUR...


I'm closing out all of my short positions! No way am I going to ride the next wave up underwater... F**king worst month ever!!!!!!
  • #63,258
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:36am Dec 14, 2012 12:36am
Quoting Ken A
T, what made you flip 180* from one week ago other than the Daily, Weekly and Monthly TL and resistance?
I wasn't long against the USD at all, probably for over a month now.

Only long with JPY cross pairs. However, last week I tried picking the top with NZD and it didn't work out too well so closed out those short positions for a loss.

Today I saw NZD close right at the next resistance with a shooting star so thought it would be a good place to short (picking the top) and AUD closed right below the downward weekly TL @ roughly 1.055 so decided to short at that point (picking the top again...)

As for EUR I didn't think it would breach 1.312 but it looks like it is going to do this tonight. Tired of trying to pick the top and have been filling my head with "bearish bias" for multiple reasons when I should just be trading off of the chart in front of me. Trend is up, why fight it?

Sorry for my rant but I think I need to step away from the forums for a while as I am filling my head with all kinds of different noises and am not trading very well. This was by far the worst month ever for me, even though I was extremely profitable with JPY cross pairs...

Also, the "fiscal cliff" fiasco keeps going through my head and I see a major downturn in the market, but am trying to get in too early, it might not even be bearish! Outcome COULD send risk assets soaring through the roof!
  • #63,259
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:41am Dec 14, 2012 12:41am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm closing out all of my short positions! No way am I going to ride the next wave up underwater... F**king worst month ever!!!!!!
Good morning HP... Just hang in there. Why buy the top? Especially in pre-London Frankie trade which typically moves counter to the London session? Unless of course you are a bit over-leveraged.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,260
  • Dec 14, 2012 12:42am Dec 14, 2012 12:42am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I'm closing out all of my short positions! No way am I going to ride the next wave up underwater... F**king worst month ever!!!!!!
Indeed a f@king month.
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