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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,141
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:47am Dec 13, 2012 4:47am
Quoting Thijs
What makes you so USD bearish about the policy ?
I think Ken is now less USD bearish, since he reduced 500 pips target , And he is still more JPY bearish thats why the target is still UP.
  • #63,142
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:49am Dec 13, 2012 4:49am
Quoting rekon67
What is special in 1.35? why not 1.36 or 1.34?
I printed the chart then threw a dart at it and it landed right to the dot at 1.3500. I think this method is as good as any crystal ball before the fact.
  • #63,143
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:51am Dec 13, 2012 4:51am
Quoting Ken A
I printed the chart then threw a dart at it and it landed right to the dot at 1.3500. I think this method is as good as any crystal ball before the fact.
  • #63,144
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:51am Dec 13, 2012 4:51am
Quoting Ken A
So the logical way to trade this pair is to remain illogical or there is other way?
hmm...honestly, PT doctrine sounds good to me - keep shorting into rallies

thing that makes me so bearish is this: i have client base through EU as well as the US; US customers are still spending, where as I have had 3 cancelled/ postponed projects out of EU (Germany, UK, Italy). Plus their feedback. US clients are cautiously optimistic. EU is quite the opposite. That to me is hearing it from the horse's mouth - my FA of sorts.
  • #63,145
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:53am Dec 13, 2012 4:53am
Quoting rekon67

THis is definitely the line in the sand here today.....Maybe I was wrong, maybe if we fall through the cracks at 1.305 it'll sharply drop...but I don't know, USD has nothing going for it. I feel like we're relying almost exclusively on profit takers for tax purposes to drive USD up at this point...
  • #63,146
  • Dec 13, 2012 4:58am Dec 13, 2012 4:58am
Quoting lolygagv2
THis is definitely the line in the sand here today.....Maybe I was wrong, maybe if we fall through the cracks at 1.305 it'll sharply drop...but I don't know, USD has nothing going for it. I feel like we're relying almost exclusively on profit takers for tax purposes to drive USD up at this point...
looks like it went into the hole and came out

Sorry jokes apart, I see 1.3040 as the primary target to breach. But this is illogical PA for sure, you might end up with a dirty underwear.
  • #63,147
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:04am Dec 13, 2012 5:04am
Jokes aside, there's bid around 1.3020/30/40 and it doesn't mean it will straight go down from there and then there's barrier at 1.3100. We will just have to wait and see.
  • #63,148
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:04am Dec 13, 2012 5:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning fellow traders,

The Fed finally makes sense. Yesterday the Fed almost unanimously decided to maintain the current level of monetary accommodation despite the coming end of Operation Twist. Under Operation Twist, the Fed sold short dated US Treasuries and used the funds to purchase longer dated US Treasuries. Now the Fed will continue to purchase longer dated Treasuries from newly created funds. Effectively this is an increase in "Quantitative Easing", but Ben Bernanke insists that it is not because what matters is the actual...
Hello PT. I agree with your analysis 100%. Your weekly chart is a keeper. In return, here are 2 charts that pretty much tell the story. The first is the Daily, where we can see EurUsd testing the upper yellow channel wall for what I expect will be the last time. Soon, we should start our way to the bottom channel wall and hit it under 1.20 sometime in January or February. The second chart is the weekly, where we can see the yellow channel in the context of a much larger purple channel. A test of the bottom purple channel wall is very possible and would put EurUsd at parity or below sometime late in 2013.

Thanks for your great work.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd - weekly.jpg Size: 161 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #63,149
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:05am Dec 13, 2012 5:05am
Quoting rekon67
looks like it went into the hole and came out

Sorry jokes apart, I see 1.3040 as the primary target to breach. But this is illogical PA for sure, you might end up with a dirty underwear.
you mean breach for further up side, or for return back down?
  • #63,150
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:10am Dec 13, 2012 5:10am
Quoting msood
you mean breach for further up side, or for return back down?
Yep, if the price is falling then it is breaching its supports, so it means breaching the upward moves. On the otherhand if we see good reaction from the zone, that means there are buyers waiting to reload.
  • #63,151
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:36am Dec 13, 2012 5:36am
Quoting rekon67
Yep, if the price is falling then it is breaching its supports, so it means breaching the upward moves. On the otherhand if we see good reaction from the zone, that means there are buyers waiting to reload.
sorry, misread that as 3140
  • #63,152
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:42am Dec 13, 2012 5:42am

how many years would you go to college if you knew for a

fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?
  • #63,153
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:42am Dec 13, 2012 5:42am
Quoting Ken A
That's a sound doctrine. Every free floating exchange currencies need buyers and sellers. So either we keep waiting for the sellers to jump in then we follow or buyers then ride the wave. The challenge in directional trading is to pick the entry point.
other thing is that i am in business - buying at discount and selling at premium is kind of in my nature - I use very basic TA tools such as the rsi, and these are showing me that I could do better price wise for buying eu.
  • #63,154
  • Dec 13, 2012 5:45am Dec 13, 2012 5:45am
Quoting msood
other thing is that i am in business - buying at discount and selling at premium is kind of in my nature - I use very basic TA tools such as the rsi, and these are showing me that I could do better price wise for buying eu.
of course, i am talking in terms of 'value' rather than with the intent of banking pips on short term moves
  • #63,155
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:07am Dec 13, 2012 6:07am
I agree it should go down soon


C:UserssamiDocumentsforcasting2012-12-13_0600.png
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  • #63,156
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:11am Dec 13, 2012 6:11am
Quoting knightpips
I agree it should go down soon


C:UserssamiDocumentsforcasting2012-12-13_0600.png
I agree too. My problem is I don't know when and at what price.
  • #63,157
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:12am Dec 13, 2012 6:12am
Quoting Ken A
Don't take it the wrong way. I am just saying and not trying to change your views. Euro is second to USD as funding currencies. Very often we see post with 'EURO is MANIPULATED' even bad data coming from Eurozone, EURO is moving up. That means not only the problems in Eurozone alone will affect the rate but outside EU, US and ASIA.

I don't rely on indicators, they are good for range trading but not for breakout. Indicator at the top is a signal to to sell then PA is moving out of range especially on lower time frames. IMO, it's...
So, do you mean you do not have the indicator showing you PA breakout?
  • #63,158
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:13am Dec 13, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Ken A
Don't take it the wrong way. I am just saying and not trying to change your views. Euro is second to USD as funding currencies. Very often we see post with 'EURO is MANIPULATED' even bad data coming from Eurozone, EURO is moving up. That means not only the problems in Eurozone alone will affect the rate but outside EU, US and ASIA.

I don't rely on indicators, they are good for range trading but not for breakout. Indicator at the top is a signal to to sell then PA is moving out of range especially on lower time frames. IMO, it's more reliable...
sure. i can understand your view point as well.
  • #63,159
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:13am Dec 13, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Ken A
I agree too. My problem is I don't know when and at what price.
ROFL.
  • #63,160
  • Dec 13, 2012 6:18am Dec 13, 2012 6:18am
Quoting rekon67
So, do you mean you do not have the indicator showing you PA breakout?
No, I don't. I used to rely on indicator and technical long time ago and they are more harmful rather than helping me especially trading EUR/USD.
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