EurAnalysis

any idea for you? UP or DOWN?
I've open position, short by afternoon

Short-medium term I would say we are going to retest 1.3100.. and possibly higher as well. right?

I'm a short term trader and this is what makes the most sense right now to me. We are in a range from 1.2664-1.3168. Until either side gives I will just be playing the ups and downs.

if I knew, i was just milionar

Money management, risk rewards, and no emotions can help make it happen

sometimes we all need a little reminder to manage our mm better! I had an awesome week last week, and actually doubled my account, but lost most of it yesterday with the shenanigans of yesterday... how?

well I was not paying attention and entered the decimal point incorrectly on my lots sizes - so to my horror realised that booom that was a big loss to start off with - so ok no need to panic, I can just take the hit and cut it short and hence lose some but not much in the grand scheme of things..

then.... the brain kicks in - well the trade Im entereing does look like a sweet set up.. and chances are good its going to go your way... hmmmmmm and a big loss now sucks, imagine if you go into your profit and tp1 and 2 happens, wowwwwww..... then before you know it, the loss is bigger as it creeps closer to your stop loss.. now you think, hmmm I should cut a loss but now thats a bigger loss than before, and you know it may just swing round again and I can cut it at BE....

anyway, jist of it through my re-occurrence of poor psychology I let myself slip and all the profits I had made and little more as my stop loss got taken out - moral of the story, just cut your losses when making a mistake and start again!

anyway thought I'd share from someone who really really should know better after all the ups and downs I have experienced. additionally I really gave myself a hard time mentally, and was sooo grumpy. We should also learn to cut ourselves some slack, re-group our thoughts, and see what we could have done differently to avoid such silly error, and to then also cut out issues as soon as happen..

luckily silver helped me out last night and today - so not all doom and gloom

i think this kind of rare occasion will happen in a trader's life at least once or once in awhile lol, i have encountered that before as well, then anxiety etc kicks in, especially if its news trading, making it 10x worst.

yeahhhhhh I bet this is how I looked also when I realised...

http://img0038.popscreencdn.com/1000...l-popping-.jpg

LOL

Short term bullish momentum is concatenating with long term bearish zone, a double top is forming.

thanks, do you refer to a peak achieved around 1800GMT weds and 0400 today?

The weekly and monthly chart looks likes having a momentum to go up higher, as the monthly closing so far. The weekly also have the potential to reach 1.35, but capped at 1.3140 zone so far or 1.3170 as our highest level since 1.20. what's your thought PT? The only bearish view i have is that the last weekly close, was still below 1.30. But the monthly close is a pin bar so far for last month, with 4 consecutive bull closing.

we have 1.3052 before the breakout during FOMC , and Asia have it lowest so far only @ 55, making the resistance a level of support for the meantime. The 1 hour long candle bar during the fomc's hour have not been gain control by the bear yet, only a break below 1.3030 again, will turn the current outlook neutral. Or possible london to bring 55 down.

Whats your analysis PT in the month of dec.

No the peak has not created yet. There is plenty of room 50-100 pips still left and this is a typical set up where PA chew resistance and create a new high on shorter TF.

December month is not good for sellers, only play in small TF, Jan-13 to Feb 13 an excellent set up is waiting for long-term selling the E/U.

Without negative news from Eurozone such as rate cut, growth projection, debt default, etc or US Fiscal Cliff, this thang is going up.


First target 1.3121. Break or bounce.

Watching this on the calendar has potential to affect E/U.

Euro going up to the "moon"..


well.. IMHO at least there will be no major correction for Euro until EURJPY prints 110.50~111.50 or USDJPY 84.50~85.50 for this round..
also, we are entering the seasonal thin holiday trading periods where Predators like to squeeze the conventional weak & wrong crowd while shouting "Merry Xmas & Happy New Year"..

Trade safe.. & don't forget our friend Kenny R..

http://www.supportoursharks.com/en/Pictures/Feeding.png

I just checked again. Not only his posts on EURUSD thread got deleted but from this thread also including mine in replying to one of his posts. If someone suspended him in EURUSD should have nothing to do with this thread right?

May be because FF find some commercial intension in his Reports or posts. But I find his Excel based graphs and Reports are good, I have a similar project but not able to finish yet.

Ah I see. Could be, because there's web and email addresses and be construed as soliciting.

Today’s Orderboard
Pete Jackson

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3040/50, 1.3000/10 (1.3001 Tenkan line) and 1.2870/80 sell stops below through 1.2870. Offers 1.3090/00 from real money, supranationals, and more up at 1.3120/30 with buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.3170/75 (Sept highs).

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6125/35, 1.6090/10 (sovereigns, real money) and 1.6060/70 ahead of tech support 1.6015 (38.2% of 1.5828-1.6131 rally Nov-Dec rally). Offers 1.6150/60 (UKclearers), tech res 1.6170/75 (1.6173 Wed high) and larger offers 1.6200/15

EUR/GBP: Offers from 0.8120 up to 0.8150 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids 0.8080/90, 0.8040/50 ahead of tech supp 0.8000/00 (100 day MA 0.8001)

USD/JPY: Bids 83.35/45 possible sell stops through 83.30 ahead of bids 83.00/10. Strong offers from 83.70 up to an 84.00 barrier with buy stops above ahead of tech res 84.10/20(March highs)

EUR/JPY: Bids 109.00/10 and 108.65/75 (108.725- 50% of 123.33-94.12). Offers 109.40/50 (109.50 barrier) and 109.80/00 (barrier 110.00) talk of large buy stops above

AUD/JPY: Bids/tech supp 87.70/80 and 87.30/40, Offers /tech res 88.50/65 (88.62 March 19 high, trend channel res) buy stops above

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0530/40, some sell stops through 1.0520 ahead of bids 1.0500/10. Offers 1.0590/00 (1.0600 barrier) buy stops through 1.0610 ahead of offers/tech 1.0615/25 (Sept 14 high 1.0625)

EUR/AUD: Bids/tech supp 1.2375/85, and 1.2330/40. Offers 1.2405/15 (1.2412- 200 day MA), tech res above at 1.2434 (cloud base) and offers 1.2440/60

Good morning fellow traders,

The Fed finally makes sense. Yesterday the Fed almost unanimously decided to maintain the current level of monetary accommodation despite the coming end of Operation Twist. Under Operation Twist, the Fed sold short dated US Treasuries and used the funds to purchase longer dated US Treasuries. Now the Fed will continue to purchase longer dated Treasuries from newly created funds. Effectively this is an increase in "Quantitative Easing", but Ben Bernanke insists that it is not because what matters is the actual purchases rather than where the funds come from. I'll give him that as I tend to agree. Anyway, that's not the good news that makes sense. The good news is that the forward guidance for how long the Federal Funds rate will remain near zero is no longer tied to a specific date, but rather now tied to the unemployment rate. The FOMC rate statement clearly indicated that the Federal Funds rate will remain low until such time as the US unemployment rate drops to or below 6.5%.

So what does that mean? To me, it means that from today forward, the monthly NFP report and the weekly US Jobless Claims report (as well as employment components in the manufacturing and services PMIs) will impact flows in the same way that they used to before the financial crisis whereby a positive employment report will be USD bullish and vice versa as the market automatically adjusts their own forecasts as to when they anticipate that we will see an increase in the Federal Funds Rate. This is certainly a good thing because as the US continues to show an improvement in the housing and labor markets, the currency will react appropriately to the upside and finally allow the currency markets to normalize.

All this now makes me even more bearish on risk assets because the current bull markets are predicated upon the constant feeding of liquidity by Central Banks (more so the Fed) and now it seems that the US will end up tightening accommodation before it's originally anticipated target date on mid-2015. Even if the Fed does not tighten before that, certainly the market will start pricing it in regardless. To me, this translates into a more bearish EUR/USD pair much sooner than it would have been otherwise.

I'm still very bearish the Euro against the USD and will continue to sell into rallies as I have been doing since QE3 was announced in mid September. In my last update I posted a EUR/USD weekly chart which showed where we stand in a series of bearish Wyckoff phases and I am glad to see that the indicated projection is still in play. However it seems that I may have to wait until January or February before my target is reached.

E/U Weekly:



Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3040/50, 1.3000/10 (1.3001 Tenkan line) and 1.2870/80 sell stops below through 1.2870. Offers 1.3090/00 from real money, supranationals, and more up at 1.3120/30 with buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.3170/75 (Sept highs)

Today's Euro FX Option Expiries at 15:00 GMT:

EUR/USD: 1.2950, 1.3080, 1.3150, 1.3155, 1.3175

That's it for today folks. All the best in your trading today and for the rest of the month. I won't be posting many updates and forecasts this month as markets are thin and I'm in holiday season mode. However, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @PipTrapper for occasional updates throughout the trading day.

Cheers!