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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #63,041
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:23pm Dec 12, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting DaEdge
Have to admit European can run fast.
  • #63,042
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:24pm Dec 12, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Actually I love him more now than before. Finally he has tied the fed funds rate to an economic indicator (unemployment rate) rather than a specific date. So this means that now monthly NFP and weekly US Jobless claims will have a lot more meaning than before.

I'll bet you the USD will rally tomorrow if the US jobless claims number comes in lower than expected.
Well at least we'll have a fix indicator rather than guessing around.
  • #63,043
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:25pm Dec 12, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Ken A
Have to admit European can run fast.
Yes it has very long legs
It works till it doesn't
  • #63,044
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:27pm Dec 12, 2012 12:27pm
What's real interesting is the behaviour of USDJPY. The only pair that USED to have a very negative impact on the FED's dovish policy. Glad i'm not trading this pair
  • #63,045
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:41pm Dec 12, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting lumesh
What's real interesting is the behaviour of USDJPY. The only pair that USED to have a very negative impact on the FED's dovish policy. Glad i'm not trading this pair
That really depends but for sure this pair is not for intraday or scalping and the fact that BOJ with the support of LDP is like a race with the FED.
  • #63,046
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:55pm Dec 12, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting Ken A
That really depends but for sure this pair is not for intraday or scalping and the fact that BOJ with the support of LDP is like a race with the FED.
Yep! NZD/JPY hit a 4 year high today!
  • #63,047
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:00pm Dec 12, 2012 1:00pm
you know what's interesting ?

that, the link between future FED interest rates and unemployment+inflation seems to be more hawkish than the "rates zero till mid 2015"
  • #63,048
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:04pm Dec 12, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Actually I love him more now than before. Finally he has tied the fed funds rate to an economic indicator (unemployment rate) rather than a specific date. So this means that now monthly NFP and weekly US Jobless claims will have a lot more meaning than before.

I'll bet you the USD will rally tomorrow if the US jobless claims number comes in lower than expected.
PT your perception is amazing.

"Regime Change": The Critical Message In Today's FOMC Announcement

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 - 13:42
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,049
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:05pm Dec 12, 2012 1:05pm
gold having a muted reaction still...not even close to 13th of Sept QE3...
  • #63,050
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:06pm Dec 12, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting lumesh
you know what's interesting ?

that, the link between future FED interest rates and unemployment+inflation seems to be more hawkish than the "rates zero till mid 2015"
Yep. My sentiments exactly...

Quoting PipTrapper
Actually I love him more now than before. Finally he has tied the fed funds rate to an economic indicator (unemployment rate) rather than a specific date. So this means that now monthly NFP and weekly US Jobless claims will have a lot more meaning than before.

I'll bet you the USD will rally tomorrow if the US jobless claims number comes in lower than expected.

Also remember what happened to the USD after QE3 was announced.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,051
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:09pm Dec 12, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
PT your perception is amazing.

"Regime Change": The Critical Message In Today's FOMC Announcement

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 - 13:42
ZH comments always make me laugh in a sad kind of way.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,052
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:11pm Dec 12, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting redteamgo
ZH comments always make me laugh in a sad kind of way.
Yea they are great. Nothing like dark humor.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,053
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:13pm Dec 12, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting lumesh
gold having a muted reaction still...not even close to 13th of Sept QE3...
1. Investors are pulling out in fear of taxes on the wealthy re Fiscal Cliff.
2. The traded volume > physical gold with the risk of default.
3. There're other instruments to hedge against inflation.
4. QE3 was unexpected by 99.99% hence rushing the gold.
5. The outcome from FED today was expected.
  • #63,054
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:16pm Dec 12, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
PT your perception is amazing.

"Regime Change": The Critical Message In Today's FOMC Announcement

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 - 13:42
Thanks for posting that bud... exactly what I was thinking. Well, not exactly. I was thinking that UE rate would drop below 7% next year... not actually reach 6.5%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,055
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:37pm Dec 12, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting Ken A
1. Investors are pulling out in fear of taxes on the wealthy re Fiscal Cliff.
2. The traded volume > physical gold with the risk of default.
3. There're other instruments to hedge against inflation.
4. QE3 was unexpected by 99.99% hence rushing the gold.
5. The outcome from FED today was expected.
meh.. i think this is one of the most absurd, overstated points of the fiscal cliff. no one stops trying to make money because they dont want to pay tax. I could see rebalancing dividend investments to avoid higher rates. i can also see higher redemptions due to poor performance of bear funds, especially in regards to gold.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #63,056
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:39pm Dec 12, 2012 1:39pm
Bernanke: "I have no idea what I'm doing, but hopefully my plan works"

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #63,057
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:44pm Dec 12, 2012 1:44pm




Quoting PipTrapper
Bernanke: "I have no idea what I'm doing, but hopefully my plan works"

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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #63,058
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:58pm Dec 12, 2012 1:58pm
Out Of Ammo?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 14:49 -0500

EURUSD - rose 370 pips on the announcement of QE1, rose 45 pips on QE4...

Gold- rose 5.4% on the announcement of QE1 but today (on QE4) Gold jumped 1.3% then faded back

Treasuries - When QE1 was announced Treasury Prices exploded in the then 10Y by over $4, today saw the same (now 7Y) bond price drop by around 4 Ticks...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,059
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:58pm Dec 12, 2012 1:58pm
Short @ 80.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,060
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:01pm Dec 12, 2012 2:01pm
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Out Of Ammo?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 14:49 -0500

EURUSD - rose 370 pips on the announcement of QE1, rose 45 pips on QE4...

Gold- rose 5.4% on the announcement of QE1 but today (on QE4) Gold jumped 1.3% then faded back

Treasuries - When QE1 was announced...
i think "out of ammo" is a poor characterization. the ammo remains and continues to be used to any extent they deem appropriate. the takeaway is that additional ammo used has minimal further effect on markets. ie, diminishing returns.
Any prices quoted are futures
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