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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,981
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:11am Dec 12, 2012 10:11am
Quoting Ken A
FOMC:

1. Fall From My Chair.
2. Free Of Margin Call.
3. F@## One Mofo Continuously.
4. Your turn.
Forget Others My Currency
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,982
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:24am Dec 12, 2012 10:24am
From Daily FX

$USDJPY surging right now, into late-March/early-April swing highs at 83.15/45. Big move ahead of $FED meeting - someone not expecting QE?
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,983
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:26am Dec 12, 2012 10:26am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
From Daily FX

$USDJPY surging right now, into late-March/early-April swing highs at 83.15/45. Big move ahead of $FED meeting - someone not expecting QE?
On the contrary. Money is out of YEN into USD then to other assets.
  • #62,984
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:27am Dec 12, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Ken A
On the contrary. Money is out of YEN into USD then to other assets.
I believe we are in the middle of some major profit taking/short squeeze on these yen crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend.
It works till it doesn't
  • #62,985
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:29am Dec 12, 2012 10:29am
Quoting DaEdge
I believe we are in the middle of some major profit taking/short squeeze on these yen crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend.
Unlikely. Reason being: U/J as well as other YEN Crosses just made new highs. Where are the shorts coming from?
  • #62,986
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:35am Dec 12, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Ken A
On the contrary. Money is out of YEN into USD then to other assets.
Hasnt showed here yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic1.jpg Size: 586 KB
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,987
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:36am Dec 12, 2012 10:36am
Quoting DaEdge
I believe we are in the middle of some major profit taking/short squeeze on these yen crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend.
There is no short squeeze on USD/JPY. Despite being in a downtrend for a few years, the USD/JPY is actually net long, not net short. Thank the Fed for that.

I believe this move is more related to the fact that the LPD party in Japan is ahead in the polls and is likely to win the 16 Dec elections, which mean that the BOJ is going to be legislated into an aggressive QE with inflation targets of 3%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,988
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:36am Dec 12, 2012 10:36am
Quoting DaEdge
I believe we are in the middle of some major profit taking/short squeeze on these yen crosses that have been in a 10+ year downtrend.
Japanese Yen breaks trend line which lasted for 6 years!

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-19.png
  • #62,989
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:40am Dec 12, 2012 10:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
Nope. I checked his historical posts and there is no misbehavior at all. Also his extracted posts are his econometric reports.
Obviously somebody didn't like his reports for some reason. I have no clue why this has happened.
Hopefully he'll be back soon.
Thanks Ken and Piptrapper. Some of the guys at EUR/USD can be a bit rash sometimes...
  • #62,990
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:40am Dec 12, 2012 10:40am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Hasnt showed here yet.
It won't show on those charts because we don't know where the money goes to.

USD/JPY - Up = Short Yen - Long USD, Short USD - Long other assets.
  • #62,991
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:46am Dec 12, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Ken A
It won't show on those charts because we don't know where the money goes to.

USD/JPY - Up = Short Yen - Long USD, Short USD - Long other assets.
More like "Short Yen", Long everything else... not just USD. So whatever goes to USD will stay there unless the Fed ruins my party.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,992
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:47am Dec 12, 2012 10:47am
Quoting TraderChris
Thanks Ken and Piptrapper. Some of the guys at EUR/USD can be a bit rash sometimes...
Lots of Bulls over that way...
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,993
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:47am Dec 12, 2012 10:47am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Japanese Yen breaks trend line which lasted for 6 years!

http://sovereignsociety.com/files/20...I-Graph-19.png
Nice chart
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,994
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:49am Dec 12, 2012 10:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
More like "Short Yen", Long everything else... not just USD. So whatever goes to USD will stay there unless the Fed ruins my party.
YES.

When did you long U/J at 77.xx?

I long E/J at 100.xx last month and it has made more than 800 pips.

For whatever reason, European can run faster than American.
  • #62,995
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:50am Dec 12, 2012 10:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
There is no short squeeze on USD/JPY. Despite being in a downtrend for a few years, the USD/JPY is actually net long, not net short. Thank the Fed for that.

I believe this move is more related to the fact that the LPD party in Japan is ahead in the polls and is likely to win the 16 Dec elections, which mean that the BOJ is going to be legislated into an aggressive QE with inflation targets of 3%
I don't doubt that a lot of it has to do with LDP party in the lead on the elections. As well as the recent stimulus from BOJ but we are approaching levels where profit taking from longer term shorts come in to play as well as lighting up of positions to start repositioning. I don't think we're in an uptrend but longer term shorts have been very stale for the last couple of years.
It works till it doesn't
  • #62,996
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:51am Dec 12, 2012 10:51am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Lots of Bulls over that way...
Poor guy must have got caught in a stampede then.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Atd9nSXuFi...l+stampede.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,997
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:53am Dec 12, 2012 10:53am
Quoting DaEdge
I don't doubt that a lot of it has to do with LDP party in the lead on the elections. As well as the recent stimulus from BOJ but we are approaching levels where profit taking from longer term shorts come in to play as well as lighting up of positions to start repositioning. I don't think we're in an uptrend but longer term shorts have been very stale for the last couple of years.
Another reason is the barrier for U/J at 83.00 has been lifted.
  • #62,998
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:54am Dec 12, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Ken A
YES.

When did you long U/J at 77.xx?

I long E/J at 100.xx last month and it has made more than 800 pips.

For whatever reason, European can run faster than American.
77.16, 79.39 and 79.60
That's 600 + 377 + 356 = 1333 pips
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,999
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:57am Dec 12, 2012 10:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
Poor guy must have got caught in a stampede then.
The silence from those hoofs was deafening after Draghi..
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #63,000
  • Dec 12, 2012 10:57am Dec 12, 2012 10:57am
Quoting DaEdge
I don't doubt that a lot of it has to do with LDP party in the lead on the elections. As well as the recent stimulus from BOJ but we are approaching levels where profit taking from longer term shorts come in to play as well as lighting up of positions to start repositioning. I don't think we're in an uptrend but longer term shorts have been very stale for the last couple of years.
You might have a point there. However, those who maintained their shorts through the bottoming process probably burned through their profits with the negative swap... so I don't think there are many of them still hanging in unless they are hedge positions.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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