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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,961
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:17am Dec 12, 2012 8:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
Due to today's probable volatility, I'm not eyeing any particular selling price, nor am I doing any scalping.
Instead I am waiting for the dust to settle and then sell from wherever we end up.
thx PT.....

still holding my view of shorting, so for now i await your move later
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #62,962
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:18am Dec 12, 2012 8:18am
PA overshoot 1.3086 is a juicy sale entry, 1.3040-55 is resistance for PA.
  • #62,963
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:20am Dec 12, 2012 8:20am
Quoting Thijs

Thijs:

Fed will continue monetizing $40 billion in MBS each month, and will continue Operation Twist, however it will adjust the program so that it continues to increase its long-term holdings with ?? (I don't have their data), without sterilization as it will no longer have short-term bonds to sell. It will also need to extend its ZIRP language "Jan. 2016" so all bonds 1-3 years are essentially risk free, as they are now, in effect eliminating the need to sell them.
Heard similar comment on bloomberg about half an hour ago. Can anybody explain: "continue OT without sterilization" ? How's that OT when you're not balancing your bond buyng ? Smells printing to me.

Quoting Thijs
What keeps my bearish outlook, is that as of this moment, all of this is priced in. Any incremental gains will have to come from .............
Priced in ? Sure, but that doesn't mean we cannot get a strong knee jerk reaction to the upside. IF we get the desired QE. Stocks, especially DAX, are in a bubble already. It has already breached the 2011 high which was the whole goal in the first place...I would personally like to meet the guys, funds that buy at these levels (unless they're scalping)
  • #62,964
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:26am Dec 12, 2012 8:26am
Quoting lumesh
Heard similar comment on bloomberg about half an hour ago. Can anybody explain: "continue OT without sterilization" ? How's that OT when you're not balancing your bond buyng ? Smells printing to me.
....I would personally like to meet the guys, funds that buy at these levels (unless they're scalping)
Yes, not sterilizing is outright printing money in common words. On the second, window dressing no more no less.

Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #62,965
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:29am Dec 12, 2012 8:29am
Quoting lumesh
Heard similar comment on bloomberg about half an hour ago. Can anybody explain: "continue OT without sterilization" ? How's that OT when you're not balancing your bond buyng ? Smells printing to me.

Yeah it is printing but I don't know how big of a Monthly number. Was already expected by my former Economics Professor in September 2012 in his newsletter.

Priced in ? Sure, but that doesn't mean we cannot get a strong knee jerk reaction to the upside. IF we get the desired QE. Stocks, especially DAX, are in a bubble already....
I am paying for the coffee.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #62,966
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:33am Dec 12, 2012 8:33am
Quoting lumesh
... Can anybody explain: "continue OT without sterilization" ? How's that OT when you're not balancing your bond buyng ? Smells printing to me.
Have you ever heard of a chickenless chicken sandwich? Same thing

Here's a comparison:

"I'll have a Chicken Sandwich please" "Hold the chicken"

"I'll have an Operation Twist please" "Hold the twist"

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,967
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:38am Dec 12, 2012 8:38am
Boehner to speak at 10am EST.. again. comments are expected to lack optimism
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,968
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:39am Dec 12, 2012 8:39am
Quoting redteamgo
Boehner to speak at 10am EST.. again. comments are expected to lack optimism
Late riser. I usually get a boehner at 6am
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,969
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:40am Dec 12, 2012 8:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
Have you ever heard of a chickenless chicken sandwich? Same thing

Here's a comparison:

"I'll have a Chicken Sandwich please" "Hold the chicken"

"I'll have an Operation Twist please" "Hold the twist"

:-)

To make it clear:

Every month in 2013 the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 billion,
consisting of $40 billion in MBS, and $45 billion in 10-30 year Treasuries.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #62,970
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:44am Dec 12, 2012 8:44am
Quoting Thijs
:-)

To make it clear:

Every month in 2013 the Fed will increase its balance sheet by $85 billion,
consisting of $40 billion in MBS, and $45 billion in 10-30 year Treasuries.
At some point in 2013, the Fed will have to change their forward guidance strategy and announce unemployment rate and inflation targets
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,971
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:45am Dec 12, 2012 8:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Late riser. I usually get a boehner at 6am
Without Viagra?
  • #62,972
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:48am Dec 12, 2012 8:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
At some point in 2013, the Fed will have to change their forward guidance strategy and announce unemployment rate and inflation targets
Why not set specific unemployment & inflation goals or thresholds. You have to give the market something to talk about.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #62,973
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:51am Dec 12, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Thijs
Why not set specific unemployment & inflation goals or thresholds. You have to give the market something to talk about.
That's what I mean. They're gonna have to do it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,974
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:52am Dec 12, 2012 8:52am
Something to read while you're waiting for the FOMC statement.

Inside the Risky Bets of Central Banks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...sj_share_tweet
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,975
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:53am Dec 12, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Ken A
Without Viagra?
Yep... Just Niagara

http://www.niagarafallsvacation.info...lsvacation.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,976
  • Dec 12, 2012 8:58am Dec 12, 2012 8:58am
I have written something about the bond market and made a bond strategy for 2013-2015.
Will wait until tomorrow to post and postpone my questions until after the dust has settled.


Quoting PipTrapper
Something to read while you're waiting for the FOMC statement.

Inside the Risky Bets of Central Banks

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...sj_share_tweet
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #62,977
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:12am Dec 12, 2012 9:12am
Quoting Thijs
I have written something about the bond market and made a bond strategy for 2013-2015.
Will wait until tomorrow to post and postpone my questions until after the dust has settled.
Do share especially info that will bring green pips to all. Don't wait.
  • #62,978
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:17am Dec 12, 2012 9:17am
From Forex Live

Blackrock expects EUR/USD to fall

Written by Jamie Coleman
December 12, 2012 at 15:11 GMT

 

  1. US dollar undervalued, will appreciate versus euro
  2. Bullish US dollar versus emerging markets
  3. Hopeful for deal but serious differences remain
  4. $1.4 trln is revenues cannot pass the House or the Senate

Must be bearish equities and bullish bonds in that case. Sounds like risk-off to me.

Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,979
  • Dec 12, 2012 9:29am Dec 12, 2012 9:29am
Good questions regarding FOMC from Forex Gump

When it comes to gauging the effects of tomorrow's FOMC statement on the dollar, there are three questions we need to answer:
1. By how much will the Fed increase its balance sheet funding?
Most believe that if the Fed doesn't bump up its asset purchases by at least $45 billion a month, risk sentiment will turn sour and prop the dollar up.
2. What will comprise the Fed's additional purchases?
The markets are looking for the Fed to spend $45 billion in treasuries alone, so such an announcement may not have a big market impact. If, however, the central bank decides to shell out dough for more mortgage-backed securities, it could catch the markets off-guard and possibly lead to a dollar rally.
3. Will the Fed revise its economic forecasts?
As for the Fed's economic projections, upward revisions would likely lead to a risk rally, while downgrades could deal a blow to the market's risk appetite.
Whatever the case may be, tomorrow's big event could very well determine whether the dollar ends 2012 on a high or low note. Make sure you tune in at 5:30 pm GMT for the FOMC statement and at 7:00 pm GMT for the Fed's economic forecasts.



Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,980
  • Edited 10:19am Dec 12, 2012 10:02am | Edited 10:19am
FOMC:

1. Falling Off My Chair.
2. Free Of Margin Call.
3. F@## One Mofo Continuously.
4. Your turn.
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