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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,921
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:44am Dec 12, 2012 6:44am
seems like the bearish tone here is more or less gone or am i wrong?
.:: your stop loss is another trader's first target ::.
  • #62,922
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:47am Dec 12, 2012 6:47am
Let's have a poll about the outcome of the FED.

Opinions can range from:

1) No change
2) extension of OT
3) QE4 and by how much
4) or smth else you can come up with


I'll start:


Lumesh - 25BLN added to treasury purchases
  • #62,923
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:48am Dec 12, 2012 6:48am
Quoting drzakir123
here a nice joke about engineer,physicist,and a economist.they find themselves shipwrecked on a desert island with nothing to eat but a sealed can of beans.how to get at them? The engineer proposes breaking the can open with a rock.the physicist suggests heating the can in sun,until it bursts.The economist's approach:''First,assume we have a can opener.....'' .

  • #62,924
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:50am Dec 12, 2012 6:50am
Quoting lumesh
Let's have a poll about the outcome of the FED.

Opinions can range from:

1) No change
2) extension of OT
3) QE4 and by how much
4) or smth else you can come up with


I'll start:


Lumesh - 25BLN added to treasury purchases
Wingou - 60BLN added to treasury purchases (even if i prefer nothing, i'm short !!)
  • #62,925
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:52am Dec 12, 2012 6:52am
PipsMaster - 45billion per month of treasury purchases (with no end date) Euro goes 1.32 and beyond!
Cheers!!
  • #62,926
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:55am Dec 12, 2012 6:55am
Quoting wingou
Wingou - 60BLN added to treasury purchases (even if i prefer nothing, i'm short !!)
A true bear to the blood. Live by the sword or die by the sword


http://www.laroche-gallery.com/wp-co...-bear-web1.jpg

  • #62,927
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:58am Dec 12, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Ken A
EUR/JPY breached 108.00. Should see 110.00 real soon.
I bet for more 111.30
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #62,928
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:01am Dec 12, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Luis Carlos
I bet for more 111.30
From 100.xx, it's already +800 pips. Slow down a bit
  • #62,929
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:02am Dec 12, 2012 7:02am
Quoting Ken A
A true bear to the blood. Live by the sword or die by the sword


image

i like that picture.

lately, I wonder why I am so stubborn about getting long. fighting the market isnt prudent and there has been a lot of missed opportunity in that respect. just w/ mini s+p & mini dow alone, they have done a 0.25-.50% per day for about 8 business days. trading just doesnt get easier as long as one is versatile enough to let go of a bias. did you hang onto your eurusd longs?
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,930
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:02am Dec 12, 2012 7:02am
Quoting mk77ch
seems like the bearish tone here is more or less gone or am i wrong?
I may stand alone, but I'm still bearish.
Even if the Fed increases their net monetary expansion, it has already been mostly priced in so any upside will be limited before reality sets in once again. My target is still sub 1.20
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,931
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:04am Dec 12, 2012 7:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
I may stand alone, but I'm still bearish.
Even if the Fed increases their net monetary expansion, it has already been mostly priced in so any upside will be limited before reality sets in once again. My target is still sub 1.20
You know I hate being agreeable, but I am with you.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #62,932
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:06am Dec 12, 2012 7:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
I may stand alone, but I'm still bearish.
Even if the Fed increases their net monetary expansion, it has already been mostly priced in so any upside will be limited before reality sets in once again. My target is still sub 1.20
you dont stand alone, the diminishing returns of QE is clear. there was some great discussion in this thread earlier (just finished catching up) about this very topic. it has been a regular topic of discussion by financial TV pundits as well.

it is just hard to swallow missing 300-500 ticks of action waiting or taking small profits on false breaks
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,933
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:06am Dec 12, 2012 7:06am
Quoting redteamgo
i like that picture.

lately, I wonder why I am so stubborn about getting long. fighting the market isnt prudent and there has been a lot of missed opportunity in that respect. did you hang onto your longs?
Yes, I do and added few along with AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY.

I don't know Red, I don't mean to criticize but sometimes using naked charts could be an advantage.
  • #62,934
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:06am Dec 12, 2012 7:06am
Quoting lumesh
Let's have a poll about the outcome of the FED.

Opinions can range from:

1) No change
2) extension of OT
3) QE4 and by how much
4) or smth else you can come up with


I'll start:


Lumesh - 25BLN added to treasury purchases

Fed re-affirms ZIRP till mid 2015 plus suggest what they can replace OT with and/or explain what their other options are plus assure the markets that they stand ready to act. However, no change in policy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,935
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:09am Dec 12, 2012 7:09am
Quoting Ken A
Yes, I do and added few along with AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY.

I don't know Red, I don't mean to criticize but sometimes using naked charts could be an advantage.
no offense taken whatsoever, i completely agree. i dont use indi's outside of TLs, daily pivots and RSI. pivot and RSI are simply geographical reference points for PA on the chart in terms of OHLC. i have no one to blame by myself in regards to not getting long.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,936
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:11am Dec 12, 2012 7:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
I may stand alone, but I'm still bearish.
Even if the Fed increases their net monetary expansion, it has already been mostly priced in so any upside will be limited before reality sets in once again. My target is still sub 1.20
I am with you after all the dust settled.
  • #62,937
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:12am Dec 12, 2012 7:12am
Quoting redteamgo
you dont stand alone, the diminishing returns of QE is clear. there was some great discussion in this thread earlier (just finished catching up) about this very topic. it has been a regular topic of discussion by financial TV pundits as well.

it is just hard to swallow missing 300-500 ticks of action waiting or taking small profits on false breaks
I know it's hard. That's why I've been scalping in the M15 charts for the last month. Admittedly though, I only took one long position for +20 pips. The other 20+ trades were short positions ranging from +5 to +70 pips
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,938
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:15am Dec 12, 2012 7:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
I know it's hard. That's why I've been scalping in the M15 charts for the last month. Admittedly though, I only took one long position for +20 pips. The other 20+ trades were short positions ranging from +5 to +70 pips
PT

what levels are you watching to take more of your sell positions?

thanks

G

ps thanks for the pm reply
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #62,939
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:17am Dec 12, 2012 7:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
I may stand alone, but I'm still bearish.
Even if the Fed increases their net monetary expansion, it has already been mostly priced in so any upside will be limited before reality sets in once again. My target is still sub 1.20
Yes, PT the target is sub1.20 we are correcting the whole move from 1.49 to 1.20 you know that, maybe other no
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #62,940
  • Edited 7:20am Dec 12, 2012 7:19am | Edited 7:20am
I'm also still bearish, but this rampant bull rally has caught me somewhat off-guard. I was trying to time an earlier end to this retracement, and at least take out a retracement of the rally itself in the process, but hot dang, this stuff don't even retrace anymore. Reminds me of the enormous silver rally I was in back in April 2011, though this is of a much smaller scale. Back when that ended it crashed so horribly hard I almost expected it'd go into negative value.

Anyway, I just took out a short at 1.3044. Felt bloody risky and it might not go anywhere, but the obverse, going long on what looks to me like little more than blind faith that other people will buy it up even higher, seems like a greater fool trade to me at this point. But then again, I'm very good at being wrong.
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