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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,881
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:17am Dec 12, 2012 2:17am
Last 20hrs so much of tourture.

  • #62,882
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:29am Dec 12, 2012 2:29am
Quoting PipTrapper

Anyway, I was wrong in September when I said "No way QE3 will happen", so keep that in mind when reading the above.

yeah, the question is that AT SOME POINT Ben needs to "dissapoint". He cannot increase shit every month. The problem is Ben knows the reaction to his dissapointment. So, until he hasn't figured out HOW he can dissapoint with minimal damage the only thing he can do is ease the fck out of everything.
  • #62,883
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:45am Dec 12, 2012 2:45am
Quoting lumesh
yeah, the question is that AT SOME POINT Ben needs to "dissapoint". He cannot increase shit every month. The problem is Ben knows the reaction to his dissapointment. So, until he hasn't figured out HOW he can dissapoint with minimal damage the only thing he can do is ease the fck out of everything.

If i were Ben, i wouldn't ease today but in next month. No reason to overheat the market before the big events to make it more prone to collapse later. By having the option to ease next month he can have a backstop (of some sort) if things get messy with the fiscal cliff regardless of the outcome. If he eases today, he won't be doing it next month (logically, but you never know Ben) however bad things will get by then. Today's easing would only lead to better selling prices and imbalances in the near future and once all the exponential buying stops a cascading selling can easily take place.
  • #62,884
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:56am Dec 12, 2012 2:56am
Quoting lumesh
yeah, the question is that AT SOME POINT Ben needs to "dissapoint". He cannot increase shit every month. The problem is Ben knows the reaction to his dissapointment. So, until he hasn't figured out HOW he can dissapoint with minimal damage the only thing he can do is ease the fck out of everything.
...at the risk of putting the Fed's credibility in question.

Consider that:
1. The Fed's mandate is inflation at or below 2% and maximum employment in a context of price stability. (Inflation is key)
2. QE3 was less effective than QE2 which was less effective than QE1. How effective would QE4 be other than preventing the markets from going through a necessary correction? Without a healthy market correction, everyone will hold off in anticipation of it.
3. The equity markets are not reflecting the real economy = bubble.
4. The extra liquidity the Fed is providing that is not going into equities is mostly ending up right back on deposit at the Fed... not as loans to business and consumers.

Conclusion: How much longer do you think this charade will continue?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,885
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:59am Dec 12, 2012 2:59am
Quoting lumesh
If i were Ben, i wouldn't ease today but in next month. No reason to overheat the market before the big events to make it more prone to collapse later. By having the option to ease next month he can have a backstop (of some sort) if things get messy with the fiscal cliff regardless of the outcome. If he eases today, he won't be doing it next month (logically, but you never know Ben) however bad things will get by then. Today's easing would only lead to better selling prices and imbalances in the near future and once all the exponential buying stops...
What are you waiting for? Call Obama and tell him you're a better candidate.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,886
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:04am Dec 12, 2012 3:04am
Quoting PipTrapper
...at the risk of putting the Fed's credibility in question.

Consider that:
1. The Fed's mandate is inflation at or below 2% and maximum employment in a context of price stability. (Inflation is key)
2. QE3 was less effective than QE2 which was less effective than QE1. How effective would QE4 be other than preventing the markets from going through a necessary correction? Without a healthy market correction, everyone will hold off in anticipation of it.
3. The equity markets are not reflecting the real economy = bubble.
4. The extra liquidity...
good point...and my answer is: Knowing Ben I have no idea how much longer


Cable doing it's business...again...unbelievable pair
  • #62,887
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:07am Dec 12, 2012 3:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
What are you waiting for? Call Obama and tell him you're a better candidate.
Already called him, but Obama said: "No no buddy, we only take candidates with the knowledge and experinence of running a xerox machine"
  • #62,888
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:37am Dec 12, 2012 3:37am
Quoting lumesh
good point...and my answer is: Knowing Ben I have no idea how much longer


Cable doing it's business...again...unbelievable pair
Forget the role of Fed Chief. With an answer like that, you should be in Congress.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,889
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:38am Dec 12, 2012 3:38am
Quoting lumesh
Already called him, but Obama said: "No no buddy, we only take candidates with the knowledge and experinence of running a xerox machine"
He's got a good point. Xerox experience is mandatory
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,890
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:38am Dec 12, 2012 3:38am
anybody else feeling the market's graaaveee for a new round of QE ?
Attached Image
  • #62,891
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:46am Dec 12, 2012 3:46am
Quoting lumesh
anybody else feeling the market's graaaveee for a new round of QE ?
Donuts = QE
Homer = Market

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,892
  • Dec 12, 2012 3:48am Dec 12, 2012 3:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Donuts = QE
Homer = Market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3ZcZ2h4Ths


and Ned's the FED ?
  • #62,893
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:12am Dec 12, 2012 4:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
Donuts = QE
Homer = Market

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3ZcZ2h4Ths
A storm is coming Mr. PipTrapper.
  • #62,894
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:30am Dec 12, 2012 4:30am
Quoting lumesh
and Ned's the FED ?
Yep.. That was a given
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,895
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:30am Dec 12, 2012 4:30am
Quoting rekon67
A storm is coming Mr. PipTrapper.
Attached Image
  • #62,896
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:35am Dec 12, 2012 4:35am
Quoting lumesh
I'm prepared

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HRg5y327GU...ilet+paper.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,897
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:40am Dec 12, 2012 4:40am
WATCH OUT today.

Tight STOPS will be wiped out before the real move begins.


Careful.

http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/or...-3d-render.jpg

  • #62,898
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:41am Dec 12, 2012 4:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm prepared

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HRg5y327GU...ilet+paper.jpg

you won't get it without a fight


PS. sell cable
Attached Image
  • #62,899
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:44am Dec 12, 2012 4:44am
Quoting Ken A
WATCH OUT today.

Tight STOPS will be wiped out before the real move begins.


Careful.

Definitely...and to the extent noone expects.
  • #62,900
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:52am Dec 12, 2012 4:52am
Quoting lumesh
If i were Ben, i wouldn't ease today but in next month. No reason to overheat the market before the big events to make it more prone to collapse later. By having the option to ease next month he can have a backstop (of some sort) if things get messy with the fiscal cliff regardless of the outcome. If he eases today, he won't be doing it next month (logically, but you never know Ben) however bad things will get by then. Today's easing would only lead to better selling prices and imbalances in the near future and once all the exponential buying stops...
My thinking exactly. Except that I would probably string it out for as long as I could. Which in this case should be about 4-5 months. Which if you think about it, is exactly what he has done on previous occasions.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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