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Sonic R. System

  • #41,961
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:55pm Dec 11, 2012 3:55pm
I think there's too much expectation on the method. Every Sonic setup (like for other methods) should be evaluated against multiple conditions (session, timeframe, news, market trend etc.) before taking a position.
Support/resistance, round numbers are key elements when entering/exiting a trade. MM is another important aspect.
This business is difficult because there are multiple factors involved and we need to evaluate all of them and take a decision (DIFFICULT!). The problem arises because there's nothing for sure. That's where every method fails. Experience, patience are important but people under-estimate them.
A lot of "young" traders have too much big expectations when entering the market and they got burn easily. It takes effort and stamina and it's difficult to start again and again especially after a looser the day before.
I speak for myself...I would say the method is 30% of my trading, 20% MM, 40% market analysis, 10% faith.

Have a good trading day !
  • #41,962
  • Dec 11, 2012 4:11pm Dec 11, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting umbro
I think there's too much expectation on the method. Every Sonic setup (like for other methods) should be evaluated against multiple conditions (session, timeframe, news, market trend etc.) before taking a position.
Support/resistance, round numbers are key elements when entering/exiting a trade. MM is another important aspect.
This business is difficult because there are multiple factors involved and we need to evaluate all of them and take a decision (DIFFICULT!). The problem arises because there's nothing for sure. That's where every method fails....
I like what Umbro just said about expectation vs evaluation. We can look at a chart, at multiple charts, and form an expectation, a bias. But prices are controlled by outfits that have the money and willingness to use it to move prices as they desire. Such outfits include central banks, large trading firms, hedge funds, and even market makers sometimes. And the way they next move prices can be totally opposite from the bias we formed. Therefore, evaluation is more important than expectation.

As Umbro said, evaluation needs to consider the time it is during the day session, the TF on which a setup appears, when there is/was news, and the trend. Together with all of this, evaluation needs to consider the quality of the setup. This means the form of the PA wave, it's relationship to the Dragon, the angle of the Dragon and the relationship of this setup to significant S&R. Evaluation is far more important than a pre-evaluation expectation. The only expectation that matters is the one we form based on the evaluation. And when we trade based on that expectation, we still need to exercise sensible money management.
  • #41,963
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:52pm Dec 11, 2012 5:52pm
Not very simple, but I totally get it.
  • #41,964
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:30pm Dec 11, 2012 6:30pm
Hi guys, GU prepared for Long again, waiting Dragon in London time.

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  • #41,965
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:25pm Dec 11, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting SCopier
Hi guys, GU prepared for Long again, waiting Dragon in London time.

Attachment
great
Keep Simple...!
  • #41,966
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:43pm Dec 11, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting SCopier
Hi guys, GU prepared for Long again, waiting Dragon in London time.

Attachment
could be, but not worth the risk imho, roughy 15pips. anyways goodluck.
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  • #41,967
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:44pm Dec 11, 2012 8:44pm
Ok, We have the fiscal cliff, Japan entered in recession, Mario Monti gave up and Berlusconi is going to make some other damage...
------------------------------
THA, Thanks for declining my post to the real stuff and extending it. I'd like to ask a question...how many trades did you take with the Sonic method ? Aproximately, if you count manually it'll take a while.

Umbro

Quoting traderathome
I like what Umbro just said about expectation vs evaluation. We can look at a chart, at multiple charts, and form an expectation, a bias. But prices are controlled by outfits that have the money and willingness to use it to move prices as they desire. Such outfits include central banks, large trading firms, hedge funds, and even market makers sometimes. And the way they next move prices can be totally opposite from the bias we formed. Therefore, evaluation is more important than expectation.

As Umbro said, evaluation needs to consider the time...
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  • #41,968
  • Edited 9:41pm Dec 11, 2012 9:17pm | Edited 9:41pm
EU Comment:

The highs were last Tuedsay, the lows last Friday, and since then the market has worked PA upwards again for a 50%+ FR retrace. On the attached H1 you can see that previous support was broken during the run down last week, and the two day run back up this week now has price backtesting this 1.3000 whole number natural S&R area. It might turn out to be resistance. We'll have to wait and see. Whichever way it goes, chances are the US mkt will be a prime player, so trading an early LS breakout of any M15 "setup" might be too early a move. But there too, we just have to wait and see what happens once the LS gets underway, trading only if what we see is good enough.
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  • #41,969
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:33pm Dec 11, 2012 9:33pm
Great Post! Seriously. I'm waiting.

Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

The highs were last Tuedsay, the lows last Friday, and since then the market has worked PA upwards again for a 50%+ FR retrace. On the attached H1 you can see that previous support was broken during the run down last week, and the two days run back up this week now has price backtesting this S&R area, which might turn out to be resistance. We'll have to wait and see what happens. Whichever way it goes, chances are the US mkt will be a prime player, so trading an early LS breakout of any M15 "setup" might be too early a move. But...
  • #41,970
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:49pm Dec 11, 2012 9:49pm
This is a kind of situation where expectation is higher than evaluation. It's okay. 2 hours to LO.

Quoting umbro
Great Post! Seriously. I'm waiting.
  • #41,971
  • Dec 11, 2012 10:19pm Dec 11, 2012 10:19pm
Ok, here is the trade I took a couple of minutes ago. SL is green above. Thanks.
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  • #41,972
  • Edited 10:55pm Dec 11, 2012 10:30pm | Edited 10:55pm
Quoting umbro
Great Post! Seriously. I'm waiting.
Quoting umbro
Ok, here is the trade I took a couple of minutes ago. SL is green above. Thanks.
(So much for his "waiting".....)

Hey umbro! Man, the least you could do for all of us "slow folks" is to also show your TP(s)! I mean, what good is the trade post as a example for students if you leave out part of the lesson?
  • #41,973
  • Dec 11, 2012 10:40pm Dec 11, 2012 10:40pm
Yes...I'm waiting for the market...is anything wrong about that ? Actually I already took a position.
Quoting traderathome
(So much for his "waiting".....)
  • #41,974
  • Dec 11, 2012 10:49pm Dec 11, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting kotlt
UJ long setup
first TP hit, wait next TP

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1355221292
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Keep Simple...!
  • #41,975
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:48pm Dec 11, 2012 11:48pm
EU Comment:

You can see in the pic. that the early asian mkt sold off, and also the Frankfurt mkt is selling off. So "down" looks like it might be the trade direction. Entering before LS, however, might not be a good idea because either or both the London mkt and US mkt might drive price up first. This could create new PA waves and even possibly a higher valid EP zone. Not to mention that currently the Dragon angle is still relatively flat.
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  • #41,976
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:54pm Dec 11, 2012 11:54pm
Wow.. droped, Red Line in VSA is showing I think it's time to Long Now no more drop, Hope my analysis is right.
SL is still mental

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  • #41,977
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:56pm Dec 11, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting traderathome
(So much for his "waiting".....)
LOL! i think he means 2 mins to wait be its LO or not.
@ umbro be careful there, i am still long bias for now.......
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  • #41,978
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:04am Dec 12, 2012 12:04am
GU Comment:

This looks advanced compared to EU, with the Frankfurt mkt already selling off such that price dropped to a local SR area. However, here too there is the likelyhood that either or both the London and US mkts might take price up again before any true run down. Waiting for a good Sonic R. setup (presumably short) that takes off later in the London session might be the thing to do. From the asian session high to the session low might constitute just leg 1 of a PA wave.
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  • #41,979
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:07am Dec 12, 2012 12:07am
Quoting traderathome
GU Comment:

This looks advanced compared to EU, with the Frankfurt mkt already selling off such that price dropped to a local SR area. However, here too there is the likelyhood that either or both the London and US mkts might take price up again before any true run down. Waiting for a good Sonic R. setup (presumably short) that takes off later in the London session might be the thing to do. From the asian session high to the session low might constitute just leg 1 of a PA wave.

Thanks Tah
  • #41,980
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:15am Dec 12, 2012 12:15am
AU long setup
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Keep Simple...!
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