EurAnalysis

Guys, I actually have a hard time with it at these values myself...started buying at 700 when people were laughing at me then...but for the life of me, why are so many countries stock piling the metal?

Diversification?

Theres big money...and then theres those that print the money...and they're the ones stock piling it.

I'm just not smart enough to argue against them...even at these levels. Then again, I'm the first to say I'm not that smart Gents. Which is why I love your commentary more then I contribute.

SURROUND YOURSELF WITH PEOPLE THAT ARE SMARTER THAN YOU...thats my theory in life. Hence my purpose for always reading this thread.

Very well made up indeed.

Extrapolated to our present EU context: up is really a way to down, and the down to up

Head and shoulders forming?

Yep. I posted this earlier...

E/U H4:

I guess the next 30 pips will tell...

Well it's late here. I'm off to bed. Big bad FOMC day tomorrow.

Good night all.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-H--5HZu5q-...ing%2Bbeer.jpg

g'nite

Nope, never stoped lstening .

Mike

"You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.."

Inserted Video

Euro print 1.31313 in honor of today being 121212 ?

your forgetting what control in a civilized population means. In order for society to behave you need some sort of order thus a medium of exchange. The weapons and money go hand in hand you cant compare either. In the end i think we are smart enough to know where
to cut our losses thus creating the next chapter. The shift in power is taking place and we will know the players in a decade probably but maybe less because of exponential growth expectancy

Sid, are you still holding on gold? Love to hear your take on gold.

saw this and it made me smile..

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.n...09742280_n.jpg

As U.S. Approaches Debt Limit, Treasury Readies ‘Extraordinary’ Measures


As the federal government closes in on its legal debt limit, the U.S. Treasury is dusting off its book of so-called extraordinary measures — moves that will buy it a few extra months to finance Social Security, military salaries and other payments.


Associated Press
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
The U.S. was about $67 billion under the $16.394 trillion debt ceiling as of Friday. That’s small change in a world of trillion-dollar deficits and billions in monthly borrowing.

Treasury expects to bump up against the cap, which is set by Congress, very near the end of this month. Lawmakers may not raise it before then — the debt limit has become entangled in fiscal cliff talks. The White House wants to be able to raise the debt ceiling without political drama, though Republicans see their authority over the cap as a crucial bargaining chip to extract spending cuts from the Obama administration.

So, perhaps a week or two before it would go over the top, Treasury is likely to start taking steps that will hold off default until about mid-February or early March.

The play book includes:

–Suspending sales of State and Local Government Series Treasury securities–special-purpose Treasurys known as Slugs that state and local governments use to comply with tax rules. The move doesn’t increase headroom under the ceiling, but it stops Treasury from piling on new public debt.

–Redemption of existing and suspension of new investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund after determining that a “debt issuance suspension period” exists. The action allows the government to redeem Treasurys held by the fund–last time around that worked out to about $12 billion over two months. By law, the fund must be made whole once the debt limit is increased.

–Suspending reinvestment in the Government Securities Investment Fund, or G Fund, a money-market defined-contribution retirement fund for federal employees. Federal employees wouldn’t be affected by the action–Treasury is required to replenish the fund. The maneuver bought Treasury about $130 billion in headroom last year.

–Limiting investments in the exchange-stabilization fund, a reserve account related to foreign-exchange holdings. The government has about $23 billion in securities in the fund.

“Once these steps have been taken, no remaining legal and prudent measures would be available to create additional headroom under the debt limit, and the United States would begin to default on its obligations,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers last year.

Treasury never has said exactly what it would do if it breaches the limit.

Treasury’s Office of the Inspector General this summer reported that the department considered asset sales, across-the-board payment reductions, prioritizing payments and delaying payments–and concluded that none would “protect the full faith and credit of the U.S., the American economy, or individual citizens from very serious harm.”

As a last resort, Treasury officials concluded that delaying payments would be the least harmful option, the report said.

During the summer of 2011, the prospect of default undermined confidence, forced the government to pay additional interest costs and led Standard & Poor’s to strip the U.S. government of its top-notch debt rating.

Fed set to expand its monetary stimulus


WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 12, 2012 12:03am EST

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a fresh round of bond buying on Wednesday as part of its efforts to support a fragile economic recovery threatened by political wrangling over the government's budget.

The central bank looks certain both to extend its purchases of mortgage-backed debt and replace another expiring stimulus program with a new bout of money creation.

Policymakers are also likely to repeat a pledge to keep buying bonds until the labor market outlook improves substantially. A drop in the jobless rate to 7.7 percent in November from 7.9 percent in October was driven by workers exiting the labor force, a fact certain to disappoint the Fed.

"The economic environment seems ripe for those at the Fed who support continued accommodation," said Victor Li, professor at the Villanova School of Business and a former St. Louis Fed economist.

As its last program of Treasury purchases, known as Operation Twist, draws to a close, officials look set to replace it with a fresh $45 billion per month in buying. Unlike those in Twist, which were funded by sales and redemptions of short-term debt, the new Treasury purchases will further expand the Fed's $2.8 trillion balance sheet.

Economists also expect the central bank to continue buying $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities as announced in September, keeping the monthly pace of total asset purchases at $85 billion -- a figure the Fed highlighted in its last policy statement.

"We want to see continued improvement in labor markets in the near term, and monetary policy should encourage faster economic growth to achieve that objective," Eric Rosengren, the dovish president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, said last week.

The central bank will announce its decision around 12:30 p.m. (1730 GMT), and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will discuss it at a news conference at 2:15 p.m. (1915 GMT).

SWEATING A WEAK RECOVERY

The Fed cut overnight interest rates to near zero in December 2008 and has bought about $2.4 trillion in securities in a further effort to push borrowing costs lower and spur a stronger recovery.

Despite the unconventional and aggressive efforts, U.S. economic growth remains tepid. GDP grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter, but it now appears to be slowing sharply.

Businesses have hunkered down, fearful of a tightening of fiscal policy as politicians in Washington wrangle over ways to avoid a $600 billion mix of spending reductions and expiring tax cuts set to take hold at the start of 2013.

Bernanke has warned that running over this "fiscal cliff" would lead the economy into a new recession.

In addition to their bond-buying plans, Fed officials appear likely to reiterate their expectation that overnight rates will stay near rock-bottom lows until at least mid-2015.

The Fed is working on an alternative framework to this calendar guidance that would instead use particular economic indicators as guideposts for policy. However, they do not appear ready to seal a deal.

Officials will also release a set of quarterly economic and interest rate projections that could show yet another round of downward revisions to future growth prospects.

Back in September, the Fed predicted the U.S. economy would expand 2.5 percent to 3 percent in 2013, but even that modest rate is looking potentially rosy.

thanks mate!!

Read this from:

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/imag...-logo1-en.jpeg Mon, Dec 10 2012, 13:57 GMT
by Kathy Lien | BK Asset Management




Intraday volatility in the FX market increased last week on the back of stronger than expected U.S. labor market numbers and ECB comments. The year is winding down quickly but there could be one more push in volatility before everything settles down. Between this year's final FOMC announcement on Wednesday, the EU Leaders Summit Thursday and Friday and the December 16th general election in Japan, there is no shortage of event risks that could increase the volatility in the forex market. For currency pairs such as EUR/USD, we have already seen larger intraday moves even though it remains stuck in a broad 1.2680-1.3125 range. On the other hand, currency pairs such as AUD/USD and to some degree USD/JPY as well have seen limited intraday volatility over the past week. Of these 3 key events, the FOMC announcement will receive the most attention for 3 reasons - #1 the Fed is expected to change monetary policy and #2 the Fed will be releasing its economic forecasts and #3 Bernanke will hold a press conference.

Yes it is that time of the year again when we have an expanded version of the FOMC announcement and here is the schedule:

12:30pm ET FOMC Statement released
2:00pm ET Updated Fed Forecasts
2:15pm ET Bernanke Press Conference

Lets look at each one of these events to see how they can impact currencies.

FOMC Statement - Look for New Program to Replace Operation Twist

- Extending Operation Twist is Not an Option
- Fed to Replace Operation Twist with $45B in Treasury Purchases
- Decision will Show Up First in FOMC Statement

Timing is the main reason why this month's FOMC meeting has received so much attention. Operation Twist comes to an end on December 31st and unless the Fed wants to let a significant amount of stimulus instantly evaporate they will announce fresh measures to keep the party going. With the Fiscal Cliff still in the background and the talks going no where, the Fed will want to keep every ounce of their existing stimulus in place in case Congress cannot agree to a reasonable plan by the end of the year. By making major changes to monetary policy at these special quarterly meetings, Bernanke also has the opportunity to provide further details with the hope of minimizing volatility in the market.

Operation Twist was announced in September 2011 with the initial details outlined in the FOMC statement. While they may like to do so, extending the Twist is not an option because the Fed is running out of short term Treasuries to sell. Instead, it is widely believed that the Fed will replace OT with an open-ended commitment to buy $45B in Treasuries every month, bringing their total monthly purchases to $85B ($40B is currently spent per month on Mortgage Backed Securities). This decision will show up first in the FOMC statement as it did in September 2011, giving investors the opportunity to react immediately. Since most investors and economists expect the Fed to convert Operation Twist into additional Treasury purchases, there are 3 main questions that we will be looking for answers to in the FOMC statement:

3 Key Questions on the New Program:

1) Amount of Treasury Purchases - $45B is expected but will it be more or less?
2) What will be the Mix of Assets Purchases - $45B in Treasuries and $40B in MBS is expected
3) Will the Program have an Expiration Date like Operation Twist or be Open Ended?

If all $45B is spent in Treasuries, the impact on the dollar may be more muted. A decision to spend more on MBS and less on Treasuries would be a bit of surprise and could drive the dollar higher as bond yields increase. Some members of the Fed have felt that MBS purchases are more effective than Treasury purchases. An open-ended program will be more negative for the dollar than a program with an expiration date like Operation Twist. However at the end of the day, even if the Fed announces an open ended commitment to buy $45B a month in Treasuries, without sales in the front end of the curve, the overall program should be more stimulative for the financial markets and risk currencies while being more negative for the dollar.

Fed Forecasts - Looking for Some Cautious Optimism

As shown in the table below, there have been both improvements and deterioration in the U.S. economy since the last FOMC meeting in October. Service sector and manufacturing sector activity slowed but the unemployment rate declined to 7.7% and non-farm payrolls grew by 146K last month, a sign that Superstorm Sandy's bark was bigger than her bite. The latest retail sales numbers won't be released until after the FOMC meeting but record sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday suggests that consumer spending rebounded in the month of November. Based on these improvements, the Fed could leave its forecasts unchanged but with Fiscal Cliff uncertainty posing a significant risk to growth in 2013, they could also downgrade their 2013 forecasts but in all likelihood, their forecasts will most likely remain unchanged. Any upgrades will be positive for risk currencies like the EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY while any downgrades should be negative for these same pairs.http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1210140132.jpg
Compare this week's Forecasts with the Fed's September estimates:
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...1210140234.jpg
Bernanke Press Conference - Watch for any Skepticism

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference is where things can get more interesting as he will be peppered with questions on the economy, monetary policy and potential impact of the Fiscal Cliff. We'll be particularly interested in seeing if he drops clues on the chance of the Fed targeting the unemployment rate. Central bankers have admitted that their forecast of interest rates is ineffective and the lack of price pressures has degraded the significance of an inflation target. Adopting an unemployment rate target would be far more powerful and transparent but it won't come easy given the division within the central bank. In the past, Bernanke's tone has also deviated from the Fed's forecasts so if he expresses skepticism about the recent improvement in the unemployment rate, risk appetite could suffer.

While a change in monetary policy and additional asset purchases are widely expected, there's enough wild cards in Wednesday's announcements to drive up volatility in the forex market.

[quote=redteamgo;6283766]not at all, glad to see some input. I expect a muted response to the FOMC. nevertheless, there will be a response. i am looking for overnight consolidation and a pop to land somewhere in the box. should the stars align, i would consider such a move a false break higher and sell worthy. re: the chart, the validity of the upper TL is questionable but the zone is not. its just a wait and see on how price reacts to that level.[/quote]

in essence i belive this is the basis of all trading , put the levels on the chart and wait to see what happens.

you talk alot of sense red and i enjoy reading your posts.

Pete Jackson's Order Board:

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2980/90, some sell stops through 1.2975 ahead of bids 1.2950/60 (1.2949-38.2% of 1.2662/1.3127) and more sell stops below. Tech res 1.3010/15 (Tues high 1.3014), offers 1.3030/50 and 1.3080/00 (Dec 6 high 1.3087)

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8080/90, tech res above 0.8120/25 (Dec 6 high 0.8123) .Bids/ tech supp 0.8045/55 (0.8046 cloud base 0.8054 200 day MA) and 0.8020/30 ahead of tech supp 0.7990/00 (100 day MA 0.7998)

EUR/JPY: Offers 107.80/00 ahead of barrier (108), buy stops above. Ahead of tech res 108.30/40 (April 5 high 108.40). Bids 107.25/35 and 107.00/10, (tenkan line 106.97) likely sell stops just below ahead of bids/tech supp 106.50./60

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2300/10, possible sell stops through 1.2290 ahead of tech support 1.2265/750 (100 day MA 1.2273. Offers 1.2350/60 and 1.2380/00 ahead of tech res 1.2405/15 (1.2412- 200 day MA)

Thats a great idea! Double safety!:
you will think twice before killing anyone and anyone will think twice before trying to rob you!