EurAnalysis | Page 3141 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #62,801
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:51am Dec 11, 2012 9:51am
As expected - the counter.

ECB’s Praet plays down rate cut odds
Written by Jamie Coleman
December 11, 2012 at 17:35 GMT

Not much room for maneuver on ECB rates, he said in a WSJ interview Officials “must be careful” with negative rates ECB doesn’t need new tools, for now Interest rates not the main issue.

The market fell to 1.2880 on the idea of negative deposit rates late last week. Praet sounds very reluctant to go down that road. Better to wait for a full-blown crisis.
  • #62,802
  • Dec 11, 2012 9:53am Dec 11, 2012 9:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
If I'm not mistaken, right now operation twist is 45 billion (sterilized)
The market is expecting the Fed to keep purchasing at the rate of 45 billion without the sales that sterilize it.

My feeling is that the market will be disappointed. It is more likely that there will be more easing to replace operation twist, but it will be reduced to about half of that (22.5 billion) or around that number.

Anyway, I was wrong in September when I said "No way QE3 will happen", so keep that in mind when reading the above.
Ben doesnt like deflation so he would do everything to fight deflation will it work i doubt i think whe blowing the biggest bubbles ever and whe will eventually see a 2008 repeat. The key is to print the right amounts to fight the deflation spiral without increasing inflation.

But he is already creating asset inflation what if the dow goes 15.000 eur 1.40 that would put lot of people on the wrong track. Thing i like about this scenario not many say this more are on the eu parity camp and dow below 2008 lows. Just wait when they throw in the towel like 2008 (analyst) so whe can collapse
  • #62,803
  • Dec 11, 2012 10:32am Dec 11, 2012 10:32am
Quoting redteamgo
lets have a new guessing game:

where does the retrace stop? ill say 3050!~
thats a very dangerous game! rather one should be focusing on strategy and how to establish position and if one on the wrong side how to get out of the tight corner.i am not picking on u but thats what my feeling are.my apologies if i am stepping on ur toes.regard and may God bless u with lot of green pips.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #62,804
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:36am Dec 11, 2012 11:36am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
And Silver... Still got the scars and learned the lessons of volatility. But eventually it made me focus on MM to be a player at all price levels long and short.
well. at least with spot silver you can adjust your leverage. OJ and wheat futures are ~ 41:1 per contract. for example, today, the 7:30 15m bar moved $7.65. thats $1912.50 per contract. tread lightly

Quoting drzakir123
thats a very dangerous game! rather one should be focusing on strategy and how to establish position and if one on the wrong side how to get out of the tight corner.i am not picking on u but thats what my feeling are.my apologies if i am stepping on ur toes.regard and may God bless u with lot of green pips.
thanks for the thought, although your response is bizarre. how does one strategize if not by anticipating the ceiling and floor of possible moves in relation to the context of current PA? best of luck to you too. no one wanted to play anyway. i am persona non-grata around here lately it seems hah
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,805
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:49am Dec 11, 2012 11:49am
Anyone any idea why Oil is shooting up all of the sudden?
any anoucement from OPEC or something?
  • #62,806
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:49am Dec 11, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Covux
Anyone any idea why Oil is shooting up all of the sudden?
any anoucement from OPEC or something?
Oil has barely moved...
  • #62,807
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:56am Dec 11, 2012 11:56am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Oil has barely moved...

i have a 50 cent move in the last 20 minutes.
ticker is CL JAN that crude oil right?

Other broker showing the same data
  • #62,808
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:18pm Dec 11, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting redteamgo
well. at least with spot silver you can adjust your leverage. OJ and wheat futures are ~ 41:1 per contract. for example, today, the 7:30 15m bar moved $7.65. thats $1912.50 per contract. tread lightly



thanks for the thought, although your response is bizarre. how does one strategize if not by anticipating the ceiling and floor of possible moves in relation to the context of current PA? best of luck to you too. no one wanted to play anyway. i am persona non-grata around here lately it seems hah
ahh there is no such things as ceilings and floors,thats a technical analysis fallacy.see anyhthing can be violated.its just price action and flow and ur feeling and ur bias but be lead by the market but not by ur bias.u know the best thing about PT is he knows when not to use technical analysis lol.. and by the way u will find lot of traders graves around those areas.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #62,809
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:21pm Dec 11, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting drzakir123
ahh there is no such things as ceilings and floors,thats a technical analysis fallacy.see anyhthing can be violated.its just price action and flow and ur feeling and ur bias but be lead by the market but not by ur bias.u know the best thing about PT is he knows when not to use technical analysis lol.. and by the way u will find lot of traders graves around those areas.regards
what is a ceiling and floor if not relative to current PA? I'm finding it extremely difficult to follow PT's thread rules right now so I will simply ask the following:

dont ever direct any commentary at me again unless it is predicated by your account statement.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,810
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:21pm Dec 11, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Covux
i have a 50 cent move in the last 20 minutes.
ticker is CL JAN that crude oil right?

Other broker showing the same data
Oil is a volatile instrument, this is not unusual.
  • #62,811
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:28pm Dec 11, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting drzakir123
ahh there is no such things as ceilings and floors,thats a technical analysis fallacy.see anyhthing can be violated.its just price action and flow and ur feeling and ur bias but be lead by the market but not by ur bias.u know the best thing about PT is he knows when not to use technical analysis lol.. and by the way u will find lot of traders graves around those areas.regards
Do not let fti brainwash you

by the way what is your specialty Dr? mine is Geriatrics, and Hospice

trading is speculating by ipso-facto , every time you take a long position you speculate on the appreciation and every time you take a short position you do the inverse. fti dance and flow....is specious .... because what you are doing in simple terms is momentum trading with averaging down.

all the scout, rescue, bite the bullet is basically a fibonacci average ....that exponentially increases your risk as you continue to "rescue".
There is a lot more to trading than that.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,812
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:30pm Dec 11, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Oil is a volatile instrument, this is not unusual.
hmm oke have been looking into this for two weeks now
just was alittle surprised and wanted to know why this happend.

thx
  • #62,813
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:35pm Dec 11, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
If I'm not mistaken, right now operation twist is 45 billion (sterilized)
The market is expecting the Fed to keep purchasing at the rate of 45 billion without the sales that sterilize it.

My feeling is that the market will be disappointed. It is more likely that there will be more easing to replace operation twist, but it will be reduced to about half of that (22.5 billion) or around that number.

Anyway, I was wrong in September when I said "No way QE3 will happen", so keep that in mind when reading the above.
easing has ran out of steam, I mean besides keeping rates low via asset purchasing.......the last QE which was to promise to buy MBS are really doing nothing to boost aggregate demand.

the Fed is finding themselves in a liquidity trap, with no real ammunition other than debt monetization via yield curve manipulation.

It seems however that the risk currencies are becoming less attractive......RBA cutting rates, the ECB might have to cut rates as well to prevent further contraction. It is hard to say what factors will be priced in but as far as I can tell the PPP still expensive viz a viz the USD, contraction and deflation might drive rates higher short to medium term but long term I am finding less and less scenarios where the euro resumes the uptrend against the USD as it had done all the way since inception till the crisis.

pretty soon the market will price in USD rate hike expectations if the economy begins to pick up steam.........the correlation with equities might break at that point.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,814
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:39pm Dec 11, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting the redlion
Do not let fti brainwash you

by the way what is your specialty Dr? mine is Geriatrics, and Hospice

trading is speculating by ipso-facto , every time you take a long position you speculate on the appreciation and every time you take a short position you do the inverse. fti dance and flow....is specious .... because what you are doing in simple terms is momentum trading with averaging down.

all the scout, rescue, bite the bullet is basically a fibonacci average ....that exponentially increases your risk as you continue to "rescue".
There is...
hi redlion,mine is ortho-geriatrics.i understand that but at the same time statistics and mathemathics not going to answer u whats going to happen on the next tick or pip.yes mathematics can give u odds and probablities but again normal ditribution curve's in market has quite bit fat tails which my opinion is the cause of so many big players death in the market.so what u have ultimatley is u against the market and the best one can do is manage the position,to ur ability.regards and may god bless u.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #62,815
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:42pm Dec 11, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting the redlion
easing has ran out of steam, I mean besides keeping rates low via asset purchasing.......the last QE which was to promise to buy MBS are really doing nothing to boost aggregate demand.

the Fed is finding themselves in a liquidity trap, with no real ammunition other than debt monetization via yield curve manipulation.

It seems however that the risk currencies are becoming less attractive......RBA cutting rates, the ECB might have to cut rates as well to prevent further contraction. It is hard to say what factors will be priced in but as far as I can tell the PPP still expensive viz a viz the USD, contraction and deflation might drive rates higher short to medium term but long term I am finding less and less scenarios where the euro resumes the uptrend against the USD as it had done all the way since inception till the crisis.

pretty soon the market will price in USD rate hike expectations if the economy begins to pick up steam.........the correlation with equities might break at that point.
Yep. I've been saying that for ages until a little while ago when everybody stopped listening. So Now I stay quiet till the storm hits.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,816
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:59pm Dec 11, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting the redlion
easing has ran out of steam, I mean besides keeping rates low via asset purchasing.......the last QE which was to promise to buy MBS are really doing nothing to boost aggregate demand.

the Fed is finding themselves in a liquidity trap, with no real ammunition other than debt monetization via yield curve manipulation.

It seems however that the risk currencies are becoming less attractive......RBA cutting rates, the ECB might have to cut rates as well to prevent further contraction. It is hard to say what factors will be priced in but as far...


i agree that a rate hike will start to get priced in but only after fomc minutes that hint
at it as bb usually sticks to his word when he hints at something unlike his
previous.

Usd and equities may travel together but not sure what this means for commodities which are priced in usd. Gold silver are a questiom mark if it happens. Only someone stupid will believe all is well to not see the need for higher precious metals demand. At this point housing market hasnt improved enough to know what the deal is.. And its running a little late and investors are probably thinking about
giving up pretty soon if there is no light.
  • #62,817
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:00pm Dec 11, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper

My feeling is that the market will be disappointed. It is more likely that there will be more easing to replace operation twist, but it will be reduced to about half of that (22.5 billion) or around that number.
.
This is my hope. If so, I suspect the USD will spike 200 pips or more and an increase in QE is already priced in.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #62,818
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:03pm Dec 11, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting the redlion

pretty soon the market will price in USD rate hike expectations if the economy begins to pick up steam.........the correlation with equities might break at that point.
For what it is worth, Benny has promised not to raise rates until 2015 at the earliest. Practically I don't think they are going to raise rates until inflation prints 4%+. As for when that will happen... Japan has been working on this for a couple decades with no success to speak of. However US has somewhat different population dynamics than japan.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #62,819
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:06pm Dec 11, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting sidhujag
i agree that a rate hike will start to get priced in but only after fomc minutes that hint
at it as bb usually sticks to his word when he hints at something unlike his
previous.

Usd and equities may travel together but not sure what this means for commodities which are priced in usd. Gold silver are a questiom mark if it happens. Only someone stupid will believe all is well to not see the need for higher precious metals demand. At this point housing market hasnt improved enough to know what the deal is.. And its running a little late and investors...
In my opinion Bonds, and commodities will pop like the massive bubbles that they are..........then VOLATILITY will be written in capital letters till the dust settles.

when even my mom starts talking about gold as a good investment ...............I AM A BIT WEARY.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,820
  • Dec 11, 2012 1:07pm Dec 11, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Hmmm...

Price still hasn't been able to close (daily close) above 1.049 for 3 months now. Might need some really good news to send it any higher...

Just placed another sell order for NZD/USD @ .8335. Selling at this time has a much lower Risk:Reward ratio due to historical ranges for NZD/USD. Unless of course people are thinking that ALL risk assets are going to be making new All-Time highs in the very near future.

Price Action Support Resistance (PASR) (waiting to see how this week closes for definite confirmation)

**Right...


doesnt look good for your shorts here. Price was waiting for enough dumb money shorting to push it higher. Shorts didnt make money all the way up. Few biased bears kept shorting au telling me im stupid but i still see strength and havent changed my mind this looks pretty strong
17 traders viewing now