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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,781
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:43am Dec 11, 2012 5:43am
Quoting Ken A
I think they would be happy if those shorts are in green.
incentive
  • #62,782
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:53am Dec 11, 2012 5:53am
Quoting msood
incentive
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,783
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:19am Dec 11, 2012 6:19am
Why Orange Juice is so expensive?


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  • #62,784
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:29am Dec 11, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Ken A
Why Orange Juice is so expensive?


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I guess that Vitamin C stands for "Cash"
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,785
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:31am Dec 11, 2012 6:31am
Thanks Ken for the chart. I am enlightened to see them everyday to gain perspective on other asset classes.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,786
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:32am Dec 11, 2012 6:32am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
I guess that Vitamin C stands for "Cash"
OJ predominantly comes from florida. prices rally in hurricane season (jul - nov) due to potential for weather to damage supply and during winter (dec - mar) due to perception of frost damaging supply. OJ futures is also a VERY thin market. we're talking total # of daily contracts traded not usually exceeding 2,000. compared to 10y note which is typically >1,000,000

you need balls of adamantium to trade wheat and OJ
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,787
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:44am Dec 11, 2012 6:44am
Closed a long close to 1.3 for +50...who knows but i'm thinking it might reverse here.
  • #62,788
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:46am Dec 11, 2012 6:46am
undecided which direction to go....look at last 3 h1 candles...
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #62,789
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:47am Dec 11, 2012 6:47am
Fed preview: The risks are all one-way
Written by Jamie Coleman
December 11, 2012 at 14:36 GMT

Like last Friday’s employment report, the risks headed into tomorrow’s FOMC decision and quarterly press conference are all one-way. The market is set-up for disappointment unless the Fed replaces Operation Twist with outright purchases of Treasuries on a dollar-for-dollar basis, maintaining $85 bln of asset purchases and the longer end of the yield curve.

If the Bernanke disappoints Mr. Market, look for a dollar rally and for a slide in equities and commodity currencies.
  • #62,790
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:50am Dec 11, 2012 6:50am
Quoting ferndog
Closed a long close to 1.3 for +50...who knows but i'm thinking it might reverse here.
Unlikely before FOMC and FED announcement.
  • #62,791
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:10am Dec 11, 2012 7:10am
Quoting redteamgo

you need balls of adamantium to trade wheat and OJ
And Silver... Still got the scars and learned the lessons of volatility. But eventually it made me focus on MM to be a player at all price levels long and short.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,792
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:11am Dec 11, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Ken A
Unlikely before FOMC and FED announcement.
AMEN
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,793
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:13am Dec 11, 2012 7:13am
Divergence between SP & Gold.... Maybe Ben will print unsterilized and maybe he will not in size.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,794
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:13am Dec 11, 2012 7:13am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
And Silver... Still got the scars and learned the lessons of volatility. But eventually it made me focus on MM to be a player at all price levels long and short.
Good stuff
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,795
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:17am Dec 11, 2012 7:17am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Divergence between SP & Gold.... Maybe Ben will print unsterilized and maybe he will not in size.
If I'm not mistaken, right now operation twist is 45 billion (sterilized)
The market is expecting the Fed to keep purchasing at the rate of 45 billion without the sales that sterilize it.

My feeling is that the market will be disappointed. It is more likely that there will be more easing to replace operation twist, but it will be reduced to about half of that (22.5 billion) or around that number.

Anyway, I was wrong in September when I said "No way QE3 will happen", so keep that in mind when reading the above.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,796
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:22am Dec 11, 2012 7:22am
Hmmmm, where is the next pivot point? or is 1.30 that level where it stops for now anyway? I have 1.3010 but also 1.3030/35
Cheers!!
  • #62,797
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:27am Dec 11, 2012 7:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
so keep that in mind when reading the above.
Thank you PT for your thoughts on tomorrow. I expect a disappointment by Big Ben BUT to quote you "trade what you see not what you think" GOLDEN ADVICE.

Will wait until I see a down move tomorrow. Trying to sell up spikes is just gambling IMO.

Ken A hit the nail on the head the other day when he said he doesn't try to pick reversals. I am in his camp. Been there and done while I was "cutting my teeth on FX" that and had the extreme DD to prove it. This goes hand and hand on what PT mentioned about trading what you see.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,798
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:29am Dec 11, 2012 7:29am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Hmmmm, where is the next pivot point? or is 1.30 that level where it stops for now anyway? I have 1.3010 but also 1.3030/35
I have 2923 for the daily pivot and 1.2975 for weekly.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,799
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:35am Dec 11, 2012 8:35am
Boehner to spoil the party
Written by Adam Button
December 11, 2012 at 16:15 GMT

House Speaker John Boehner will give an update on fiscal cliff negotiations at noon (1700 GMT).
If he is disjointed or frustrated with the talks, risk trades will decline. They will fall in exact proportion to how loud and angry he sounds.
  • #62,800
  • Dec 11, 2012 8:42am Dec 11, 2012 8:42am
From ZeroHedge

Relative to interest rates (and swap spread differentials), the EURUSD is at almost its most 'expensive' in 15 months. It appears support for a 'strong' EUR is waning; as the swap rate tends to signal, even ECB President Draghi - as Bloomberg Briefs notes - suggested support on the Governing Council for a reduction of the main policy rate has increased appearing to have used the downward revision to the Eurosystem staff GDP forecasts as an excuse to soften his tone. Between Spain's auctions hitting a wall of 'virtual intervention limits' and Italy's political turmoil, it appears (at least fundamentally) that the EUR should be weaker (we suepct currently aided by incessant repatriation flows). Options markets are pricing in expectations of further weakness but it appears the EURUSD rate remains bound by the Fed-to-ECB expectations of a wholesale Spanish bailout (increase in ECB balance sheet) and the Fed's expansion via QE4. For now, positioning is not indicating any squeeze with the net speculative shorts at the lowest level since September 11 - coincidentally the last time EURUSD was so rich to swap spreads.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...-too-expensive
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
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