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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,761
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:20am Dec 11, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Ken A
You skip this one PT.

Today’s Orderboard

EUR/USD: Bids, 1.2920/30, 1.2900/05 some sell stops on a break ahead of more bids 1.2870/80, ahead of tech supp/bids 1.2845/55 (1.2949-38.2% retracement of 1.2661-1.3127 rally) Offers 1.2970/80 and 1.3000/10, possible buy stops up through 1.3020

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6050/60, tech support 1.6015 (38.2% of 1.5828-1.6131 rally Nov-Dec rally) ahead of more bids 1.6000/10. Sell stops through 1.5985 ahead of tech support/bids 1.5945/55 (100 day MA 1.5955). Offers 1.6100/10 and 1.6120/30 (1.6124-...
Thanks Deputy

http://cdn100.iofferphoto.com/img3/i...oons-0ee7f.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,762
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:21am Dec 11, 2012 5:21am
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,763
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:29am Dec 11, 2012 5:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
, but my projection at this point is that unless we see the next ZEW sentiment index maintain optimism, this will definitely turn into a non-event. When you put it in the context of the overall situation (GDP contraction and elevated unemployment), plus you consider that it is only German economists who participate in the survey, this reading is more of an anomaly than an indication of overall EZ sentiment.

One might also want to consider that if an investor is currently long risk, any responses to survey questions to to him/her...
Now we are talking. Sure any number like this or macro number it needs to sustain for a couple of times.

It is always very useful to mark important inflexion points on readings like this. From a macroeconomic point of view, important and out of range shifts from negative to positive usually (or the opposite) are one of stronger FA signals for a potential shift in macro trends as they statistically "break" the normal SD of the distribution.

...in simple terms, small changes on the mean of expectations are most of the time "continuation" and disparities between forecast, expectations and reality are statistically acceptable. While when expectations massively break forecasts, means that they are changes in reality on the making that they are about to translate on the future numbers...

Of course, this you can do when you have a serious report from a serious country (not like a report from www.forexxsuckers.whatever.com). So i give it even more leverage that is based on German Economists and not like the one that come from the Iranian Economist association or whatever.

My point is, just mark the point for a FA reference on the EZ macroeconimic side, that's it, until later. For now US is in full control with the FOMC and the fiscal cliff...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #62,764
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:44am Dec 11, 2012 5:44am
premature Inverted H/S on H1 .. problem is somehow the Head is missing

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  • #62,765
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:03am Dec 11, 2012 6:03am
such an inflated price for what really is worth less than a toilet paper roll :-)
  • #62,766
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:15am Dec 11, 2012 6:15am
Quoting Feldrin
Just went short at 1.297. (...)
S/L'ed out a while back with -8 pips.

So apparently I am just stubbornly shorting into a bull rally. Guess I was either just too early with my short, or my analysis of this being a bear is just fundamentally flawed. I don't mind re-entering my short at a higher price, but if we go through 1.3 and the 50 fib next and then through 1.302 I'd have to start making up nonsense to fool myself to support the idea that we'll just continue to go down soon. Perhaps the market is just going nowhere between roughly 1.282 and 1.313.
  • #62,767
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:28am Dec 11, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Feldrin
S/L'ed out a while back with -8 pips.

So apparently I am just stubbornly shorting into a bull rally. Guess I was either just too early with my short, or my analysis of this being a bear is just fundamentally flawed. I don't mind re-entering my short at a higher price, but if we go through 1.3 and the 50 fib next and then through 1.302 I'd have to start making up nonsense to fool myself to support the idea that we'll just continue to go down soon. Perhaps the market is just going nowhere between roughly 1.282 and 1.313.
All depends what time frame you're talking about...

Quoting PipTrapper
I just don't see it. Technically there is no setup at all. Not bullish, nor bearish. The Euro has been stuck in a consolidation range since September 13th and it's not breaking out to the top because market sentiment is sensitive to news and in order for the Euro (and other risk correlated instruments) to keep rallying, they need a consistent stream of good news. So, IMO any move to and beyond 1.32 will need one (or more) of the following...

1. A complete retraction of the ECB's dismal economic forecast and a statement saying that there will be no further rate cuts.
2. A miraculous comeback (growth) in the Greek or Spanish economies.
3. A fiscal/Political union in the Eurozone with common debt issuance and joint liability.

Since none of the above are likely to happen, I maintain my position of selling at the top of the consolidation range. Of course for short term traders, there is nothing wrong with playing the range from both sides, and assuming we may get some risk-on sentiment early next week, 1.2880 was certainly a great place to buy. However, for me and my mid to long term positioning strategy, that carries far too much risk for my blood.

When I look at recent movements and where the heaviest volume moves are located, it is clear to me that the smart money is with me on this (JMO)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,768
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:29am Dec 11, 2012 6:29am
Quoting Ken A
You will always be disappointed by confusing on the problems on EZ alone.
No, not disappointed - I don't have any positions atm. Just bemused as to how every negative news drives it up, and any positive one does the same even more. Its illogical - almost as if the central bank is trying to teach a lesson to anyone who dares short the euro on news or sentiment - for who else could move it in such an irrational manner...
  • #62,769
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:29am Dec 11, 2012 6:29am
From Babypips
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pippin...211/eurusd.png
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
  • #62,770
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:34am Dec 11, 2012 6:34am
Quoting msood
No, not disappointed - I don't have any positions atm. Just bemused as to how every negative news drives it up, and any positive one does the same even more. Its illogical - almost as if the central bank is trying to teach a lesson to anyone who dares short the euro on news or sentiment - for who else could move it in such an irrational manner...
No not at all. These moves have absolutely nothing to do with the Eurozone. They have more to do with the US Fiscal cliff and the FOMC's dovish plays. FOMC policy statement is tomorrow and a QE4 outcome is being front-run into the news. Wait till all that is over, then try and make the same statement.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,771
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:53am Dec 11, 2012 6:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
No not at all. These moves have absolutely nothing to do with the Eurozone. They have more to do with the US Fiscal cliff and the FOMC's dovish plays. FOMC policy statement is tomorrow and a QE4 outcome is being front-run into the news. Wait till all that is over, then try and make the same statement.
so 'who' is buying it? surely, smart money would be smart enough to look through all the smoke and mirrors -
  • #62,772
  • Dec 11, 2012 6:57am Dec 11, 2012 6:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
All depends what time frame you're talking about...
Daily, H4, H1. I don't trade on the weekly, but I keep an eye on it and I might see some room for bearishness there.

As you say, the euro doesn't seem to be particularly bullish or bearish right now. Based on my H4 chart I was, and am, banking on a continuation of the recent down movement from roughly 1.31 to 1.2875. My last short was a bit too hasty I'll have to admit, and I really need to learn more patience; up-spikes like these are quite common on the H1 and H4 just before the continuation of a down-trend. But if we don't go down soon somewhere around here, we'll probably just visit the top of the consolidation range again. And though I don't mind shorting there again, I was honestly expecting more bearishness than this, but I guess there's just too much potential news in the pipelines for that to happen right now. Perhaps it'll materialize in the coming hours, but the NY session often just pushes the Euro even higher.
  • #62,773
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:11am Dec 11, 2012 7:11am
Quoting msood
so 'who' is buying it? surely, smart money would be smart enough to look through all the smoke and mirrors -
Smart money are placing their sell limits way up above current levels... and those order tend to be so huge that they attract price. You'll see what I mean when the E/U pair comes crashing down again... but first let's deal with the Fed policy release tomorrow. At this point an expansion of monetary accommodation is not fully priced in so expect a bit more upside before tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,774
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:16am Dec 11, 2012 7:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
but first let's deal with the Fed policy release tomorrow. At this point an expansion of monetary accommodation is not fully priced in so expect a bit more upside before tomorrow.
Agreed. Small scalp longs for me today which have been profitable
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,775
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:19am Dec 11, 2012 7:19am
Form OANDA News

8:17 EST - Euro is broadly stronger early in NY, likely thanks in part to a move higher against the Swiss franc. UBS's plan to expand charges for customers depositing Swiss francs helped push the euro higher and that move is likely trickling down through other euro crosses. Greece reportedly will meet its debt buyback target, but that was largely expected. Euro's still fighting to break back through $1.30. Market participants have said in recent days that any big moves are likely to be limited until the two-day FOMC meeting ends tomorrow and traders get details on further monetary easing.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,776
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:22am Dec 11, 2012 7:22am
BIS was selling E/U around 1.2995. So more likely PA will go above to pick up more BUY or SELL stops for today. Dec 12 will be another story.
  • #62,777
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:23am Dec 11, 2012 7:23am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
Form OANDA News

8:17 EST - Euro is broadly stronger early in NY, likely thanks in part to a move higher against the Swiss franc. UBS's plan to expand charges for customers depositing Swiss francs helped push the euro higher and that move is likely trickling down through other euro crosses. Greece reportedly will meet its debt buyback target, but that was largely expected. Euro's still fighting to break back through $1.30. Market participants have said in recent days that any big moves...
lets have a new guessing game:

where does the retrace stop? ill say 3050!~
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,778
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:27am Dec 11, 2012 7:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Smart money are placing their sell limits way up above current levels...
Thats what I would like to capture in my neural model - apparently needs more work .

Admittedly, FA and economics is not my forte - so good to have that perspective through this forum.

Awaiting the day after, with anticipation...
  • #62,779
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:31am Dec 11, 2012 7:31am
Quoting msood
Thats what I would like to capture in my neural model - apparently needs more work .

Admittedly, FA and economics is not my forte - so good to have that perspective through this forum.

Awaiting the day after, with anticipation...
BTW: the world ends in another 18 or so days - fair warning
  • #62,780
  • Dec 11, 2012 7:39am Dec 11, 2012 7:39am
Quoting Ken A
Don't forget the wills.
I leave all my EU shorts to the EZ
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