This is what I mean though:
If FED is printing then (for example) AUD, NZD, EUR would/should go up against USD. This would more than likely make any JPY cross pair a viable play due to the BOJ easing as well.
Regardless of who is winning between the FED and BOJ, the cross pairs (EUR/JPY) will perform well regardless. See the logic behind this?
I don't pay too much attention to the ZEW investor sentiment because...
1. It is a survey of only German investors and analysts.
2. The overall EZ ZEW sentiment is heavily weighted towards the German one and therefore does not really represent the EZ sentiment.
3. It's always been good for a pop either way but I've never seen it create momentum... just a knee-jerk reaction.
More or less equal to Moody downgrade/upgrade +/- 30 pips
Exactly
More or less equal to Moody downgrade/upgrade +/- 30 pips
I have read your posts, you don't talk like a newbie and you sound like you understand macro fundamentals so a bit surprised with that comment ...come on mate trying to translate Economic sentiment in a M5 chart move is probably not only a bad idea but it can be very misleading if you are trading (I don't know what is your timeframe) beyond those micro moves....
In any case, DAX making new yearly highs and a dozen ticks away from making 4 year highs. We'll see how it pans out but this ZEW is already marked for future reference in my FA charts...
sisse...
I have read your posts, you don't talk like a newbie and you sound like you understand macro fundamentals so a bit surprised with that comment ...come on mate trying to translate Economic sentiment in a M5 chart move is probably not only a bad idea but it can be very misleading if you are trading (I don't know what is your timeframe) beyond those micro moves....
In any case, DAX making new yearly highs and a dozen ticks away from making 4 year highs. We'll see how it pans out but this ZEW is already marked for future reference in my FA charts...
sisse...
Actually I am still learning from folks here everyday. Re the Moody comment, hence the ==>
I agree on ZEW, it's enough to break the resistance and stays above it until next momentum to pick up.
Ok no problem.
On the second part ...well not really, IMO you may want to just track the news in the context of a daily/weekly chart at least. As you prolly know, a single news will never ever (as 90% of the FA except something very specific like rate cuts/hikes, QE or CB interventions or bands) be THE one condition to trigger a linear move. And also don't forget only dumb money buy good news at the high and sell bad news on the lows ...
My 2 cents and if you want to "try" this kind of FA from a different perspective, mark this point in a daily (better weekly) and you can check in the next few days in the context of the latest developments and your TA analysis just what happened ...
sisse
, but my projection at this point is that unless we see the next ZEW sentiment index maintain optimism, this will definitely turn into a non-event. When you put it in the context of the overall situation (GDP contraction and elevated unemployment), plus you consider that it is only German economists who participate in the survey, this reading is more of an anomaly than an indication of overall EZ sentiment.
