EurAnalysis | Page 3137 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #62,721
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:50pm Dec 10, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This man is quite narcissistic... > Monti: Market reaction to my resignation is understandable.

My conclusion: Monti is a MoFo
Strongly disagree with that one PT. From a strictly macroeconomic and economic policy point of view, Monti has been by far the best PM (President or else) not only in Italy (well that is not that difficult...) but in Europe and prolly in the develop world during this crisis.

In times of economic crisis. Hands down a technocrat like him over all the big and timid political BS we have seen in Europe the US and Japan. Not to mention most of the EZ presidents/PM (that they have lost election because of that), the "confused" and contradictory economic plan in the UK, the lack of one in Japan and the Circus we are witnessing in the US right now...

On the contrary, two thumbs up is my conclusion. The world and especially the EZ and Italy would haven been a lot better if they would have follow the technical options (like the ones implemented by him) since the beginning. Instead they made a political orgy/collage/circus at the EU level that have only deepened the [btwl no discussion still v painful] problems that should have been addressed years ago.

Narcissist and hubris syndrome ...uff the list of politicians is very large across the world right now but still I would put Berlusconi (that is coming back ... unbelievable) as the textbook of the pack not Monti...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #62,722
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:54pm Dec 10, 2012 12:54pm
I do not purport to know what is going to happen or how the market will react post fiscal cliff

What I do know however is that Bush era tax cuts will be reversed and INCREASED expenses will not take effect, this is supposed to drain liquidity out of the economy and with weak employment and weak aggregate demand....is supposed to cause GDP contraction and deflation which will lead to a recession possibly depression.

Now if the fiscal cliff is solved things will be just as they are now....and the slow recovery is expected to continue. Which means that fixing the fiscal cliff in real terms changes nothing.

I am not sure how the markets will react but I suppose they will continue to look for yield in this low yield environment The Euro however is a different animal because the expectation is possible rate cuts..... Maybe a break in correlation with equities and risk on environment might happen but if things stay as they are equities will continue to gain, commodity currencies will continue to gain and by correlation the Euro will continue to gain.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,723
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:17pm Dec 10, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting sisse
Strongly disagree with that one PT. From a strictly macroeconomic and economic policy point of view, Monti has been by far the best PM (President or else) not only in Italy (well that is not that difficult...) but in Europe and prolly in the develop world during this crisis.

I absolutely agree with you. However, I think you misunderstood what PT meant.

As i understand, PT simply pointed out that Monti, by reading between the lines, effectively said out loud, that he is (was) one hell of a PM...which he is...but you don't say that out loud

an akward situation, that's all
  • #62,724
  • Dec 10, 2012 1:24pm Dec 10, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting lumesh
I absolutely agree with you. However, I think you misunderstood what PT meant.

As i understand, PT simply pointed out that Monti, by reading between the lines, effectively said out loud, that he is (was) one hell of a PM...which he is...but you don't say that out loud

an akward situation, that's all
Bingo!!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,725
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:17pm Dec 10, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting lumesh
I absolutely agree with you. However, I think you misunderstood what PT meant.

As i understand, PT simply pointed out that Monti, by reading between the lines, effectively said out loud, that he is (was) one hell of a PM...which he is...but you don't say that out loud

an akward situation, that's all
Sure i got that but it was taken out of context and I thought it wasn't a fair assessment of Monti. Credit and praise where it's due.

Actually that's another difference between a good technocrat and a politicians: you do your job right, you and evryone know it, you said it out loud withou anything to hide and you resign because your technical mandate is over....a politician will have put a hook to stay, you said 1/2 of what you need to say to keep the opposition in check and your voters "dreaming" for more and you sell your soul and everyone else if need to the highest bidder to stay a couple more years in power....

In any case, for the purpose of the thread is euro negative. We'll see how it pans out and how the bond markets react if Italy enters in the typical political instability vicious circle....

Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #62,726
  • Dec 10, 2012 3:18pm Dec 10, 2012 3:18pm
there is no shame in knowing and saying you are good at what you do
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,727
  • Dec 10, 2012 4:57pm Dec 10, 2012 4:57pm
Quoting Ken A
No, there's no shame to admit doing something good but to brag about it in bitter sweet is giving different impressions. Political parties are all having different agendas and from different supporters/voters

It's like I don't use SL and brag about it then I criticize and mock everyone who is using it. In other words; everyone must not use SL. That's the reaction about Monti's comment from those who use SL

So let's not talk about politics here as we shouldn't criticize others trading strategies
apples to oranges. he can "brag" (not the word I would choose, that is for sure) all he wants and the market certainly seems to agree based on the initial reaction. he inherited a mess and did a damn decent job. condemning the structure/situation of italy's government as he leaves is entirely deserved in my eyes. if anything, berlusconi et al deserve the wagging finger. the guy is a complete disgrace.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,728
  • Dec 10, 2012 5:38pm Dec 10, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting sisse
Sure i got that but it was taken out of context and I thought it wasn't a fair assessment of Monti. Credit and praise where it's due.

Actually that's another difference between a good technocrat and a politicians: you do your job right, you and evryone know it, you said it out loud withou anything to hide and you resign because your technical mandate is over....a politician will have put a hook to stay, you said 1/2 of what you need to say to keep the opposition in check and your voters "dreaming" for more and you sell your soul and everyone...
Hi Sisse... I absolutely agree he deserves more credit than he actually received for doing a stand up job in cooling down the fiscal melting pot in Italy. I was only poking a little fun at him for showing his inflated ego. My comments were not meant to detract from what he had accomplished through his apparently obvious abilities to take the bull by the horns and get the job done. Like Lumesh said, thinking/knowing it is one thing, but bragging about it is a bit over the top. After all, Italy functioned for many centuries before he came along and they will continue to function long after he is gone. Monti never hesitated to criticize and blame others when things weren't going his way and now I see he won't hesitate to publicly declare he deserves all the credit for the recent positive events. Perhaps he's not all that different from a run-of-the-mill politician, no? I am sure there is a motive behind what he did today... It smells more like campaigning to me. Perhaps it won't be too long before he throws his hat in the ring and runs for premier of Italy (which would undoubtedly be very good for the country... should he win).
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,729
  • Edited Dec 11, 2012 4:32am Dec 10, 2012 9:03pm | Edited Dec 11, 2012 4:32am
Quoting redteamgo
apples to oranges. he can "brag" (not the word I would choose, that is for sure) all he wants and the market certainly seems to agree based on the initial reaction. he inherited a mess and did a damn decent job. condemning the structure/situation of italy's government as he leaves is entirely deserved in my eyes. if anything, berlusconi et al deserve the wagging finger. the guy is a complete disgrace.
Agreed on apples and oranges, it's for simplicity. Knowing few politicians in real life, not because of love to but had to, can't say they are saints by the people for the people. It's dirty and corrupt. It's a different world from public crowds. They capitalize on anything public opinion, power of suggestion, public, social and financial unrest to the extend of race and religious differences for their personal gains and agendas. Political situation in any countries will impact financial markets not exclusive to Italy alone. Curios, what is next to unveil.
  • #62,730
  • Dec 10, 2012 10:37pm Dec 10, 2012 10:37pm
safe range hi projection (1.2952) reached
  • #62,731
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:32am Dec 11, 2012 3:32am
1.3150?
  • #62,732
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:40am Dec 11, 2012 3:40am
Closed NZD/USD shorts for a combined loss of 180 pips... (will take a look at price action at .85 and .88 if we get up there)

Not liking this momentum for shorts against USD.

Still long A/J and E/A though...
  • #62,733
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:40am Dec 11, 2012 3:40am
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment in 30 mins. BUY ON DIPS.
  • #62,734
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:41am Dec 11, 2012 3:41am
Quoting rekon67
1.3150?
You may be right Rekon. Bullish momentum again, possibly due to tomorrow's meeting with the FED.
  • #62,735
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:42am Dec 11, 2012 3:42am
Quoting smart pivots
case 1 : current PA is a fake one and as Big boys plans :selling from some pips higher and grabbing some SLs would be better. (they can sell when some one else is planing to buy and when buyers are not enough this fakes are often used)
case 2: despite all fundamental perspectives EU is going to break a major TL and complete ABCD toward even 1.38xx. (that is not my favor move as i like moves to be more logical)

currently we are above yearly open and i am waiting for big sell orders to come in play. a bad year foe EU with lot of unsolved issues...
in the case of current up move to be continued till Friday, i am expecting a reversal on Friday .
market sentiment is changing to "buy EUR" (based on COT) and there is no heavy challenging actions maybe there is a hidden agreement on current levels based on Big Boys analysis
  • #62,736
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:47am Dec 11, 2012 3:47am
I've been thinking that any JPY cross pair should be good for long term plays and here's why:

The FED is going to keep printing money which "could/should" send risk assets higher against the USD. Also, with BOJ weakening their currency through easing and other monetary tools this would send USD/JPY higher or at least neutral if both are easing.

So JPY cross pairs could be a smart long term play.

**The only thing that could put money back into the USD and JPY is a major "Risk Off" scenario such as the Fiscal Cliff which I see happening later this year. But I'm wondering how much of a safe haven JPY will have after recent BOJ actions.

Could anybody else expand on our current possibilities with JPY and its cross pairs?

If EUR/USD goes down but USD/JPY goes up, would EUR/JPY still be a viable play? Looking for others' input on this matter if possible. Thank you in advance.
  • #62,737
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:50am Dec 11, 2012 3:50am
Quoting Ken A
Better wait until Dec 12 if to long USD pairs. Too risky ATM.
Did you mean risky to SHORT USD pairs at the moment?

**I won't touch any USD pairs until after FED meeting anyways, rough past couple of weeks for me...
  • #62,738
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:50am Dec 11, 2012 3:50am
Quoting rekon67
1.3150?
Need to break 1.2990 first (convincingly)
  • #62,739
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:53am Dec 11, 2012 3:53am
Quoting Ken A
Depends on who is going to win the race, BOJ or FED? NORMAL Risk-On to Risk-Off Max -50 pips.


Reuters: BOJ to ease another 5-10 trln JPY next week- Sources
Written by Jamie Coleman
December 10, 2012 at 16:16 GMT

Another meeting, another JPY 10 trln…
USD/JPY is former, at 82.40. Heavy selling remains laddered up from 82.80 to 83.00.
This is what I mean though:

If FED is printing then (for example) AUD, NZD, EUR would/should go up against USD. This would more than likely make any JPY cross pair a viable play due to the BOJ easing as well.

Regardless of who is winning between the FED and BOJ, the cross pairs (EUR/JPY) will perform well regardless. See the logic behind this?
  • #62,740
  • Dec 11, 2012 3:53am Dec 11, 2012 3:53am
Quoting Ken A
Sorry, I mean buy USD to short other currencies.
Gotcha, that's what I thought you meant...
15 traders viewing now