Elliott wave outlook

you are right also you can count like that.

Wavers, Anybody likes this euro yen. Elliott was FGenious...

I like it. This is inline with our thinking on this thread that the euro is about to go to 1.36xx area

Olu

I do not think so


Let us look what I expect to happen:


When this is a wave 4 retrace, the premium area for a wave 4 retrace is 2958, 2983 and 3002

Since we have a nice point of recognition in the wave 3 down at around 3020, often wave 4's will challenge that.

On 4h the EMA 21 comes now in around 2992, but around 2975 we have the EMA 234 of 15min and 1h TF



Looking at my S/R-chart, I see 2967, 2991 and 3019 as bigger hurdle


Judging from EW and harmonic EW on 1, 2 and 4h TF, harmonic EW paints a clearer picture: there is a wave 5 down missing so far.

When I assume a retracement for this wave 4 to 2970, then the premium area for end of wave 5 is 2838-2827, 2807 and 2787

If wave 4 challenges the 3020 point of recognition, the targets are 2859 and 2837 (we can only calculate exactly, when wave 4 has ended)



When I look across the EW landscape, most seem to be under the impression, that this wave down over the last days is a corrective wave 4 (down) or part of it. And ask Sisse - when most of the Elliotticans are on the same page they are likely wrong LOL

Well, when this wave down is the complete wave 4, it is strange, because it has the best impulsive structure since weeks.

So we have to think about the impulsive A wave of a wave 4. But that would lead to a wave C (of the ABC zigzag), that likely would go into the 2817 area. That would make many counts invalid or looking very suspect. OK, in theory, this wave 4 down can literally go down to around 2801 without invalidating this count, but the probability is against it very clearly. Most of the time a wave 4 retraces between 18 and 36% of wave 3. And with todays low we had around 58% already.

I like to have waves with the right look, and such a count seems to not look right


So back to the idea that we are in a downward impulse:

Look at daily TF:

we see three waves down. That calls for an completed impulse. Should the impulse not be completed, we likely get an extended wave 5.

That has a severe implication on this TF AND other TF's: any correction now higher than 2972 will nullify the chance for an extended 5, because this would then move above the starting point of the subwave 1 of this extended wave 5.


And waves are fractal. We can not have a substantially different count on H1 and D1


So, above I said, that a wave 4 often challenges the point of recognition. But in this special case it will not happen. A movement towards 3020 would invalidate such a count on daily TF.


So trading advise is:


short

break above of 2972 by a single pip will most likely lead to a higher retracement towards 3000 to 3038, extended 3062

So a short with a SL at 2974 will give an excellent opportunity for a decline towards at least 2878, but more like sub 2840


long

long at 2974 with target 3000 to 3038

Hi I,

I follow your work a lot. Thanks for your input on this matter of where the euro is going. I based my own thoughts on a weekly chart I posted last week where I tried to characterise the upmove from the lows. what do you think about it?

Olu

markus. you did not talk about ej chart

A refreshing weekend to all.

ROFL


hahahaha, how funny.

I thought, when Olu mentioned Euro to 1.36, thta he thought, EJ and EURUSD correlated


My brain, my brain, it sucks...... LOL

Hi Olu,


yes, very good, that can not be ruled out in the longer term.

Right now I have 4-5 high probability long term counts. Some see us in a corrective wave up to around 1.4-1.42 area

But long term counts are very hard, especially after this whole back and forth of the last years.


Better to play EW step by step when trading Forex.



Last week I showed an Harmonic EW count and I thought to be the top was in

look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...46#post6264446


and I presented an alternative count here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post6264615

This are HEW counts, but I think each HEW fits into a EW and vice versa.

So far I see it, HEW finds a way to make better fib-wave relationships.


I now think, that the first count is valid, because the move down so far looks clearly to be impulsive, and when this move down is labeled as wave A, the wave C will get to deep for a reasonable look.


So we go with the first count:

a) this leg lower is an A-wave like you suggested

b) this leg lower is the first impulse down of many to come



if a) this wave A should stop right here and not build an extended wave 5, then the chance is good for this count

if b) this wave down may build an extended wave 5 to target the 2796 area. Such a first wave down normally takes nearly all the advance back from the preceding impulse up.



So now back to your chart:


If my variant b) hits the tape, the chances for your long term counts gets smaller, but is not off the table.





We have to wait and see......



This count shown below is my long term main count:


I described it and the thinking process last days extensively

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post6263963


read posts #5525-5533

You too tim

the first one is playing until now

Luis. In this weekend I want to counts 5-6 pair of currencies.I want to watch from now. What do you recommend?

This is my view for December. Target 1.334/6

my account would be glad if you are right

also mine

Hi Carlos,
do you think it will go below the most recent low (1.2875) BEFORE reaching your target at 1.334/6?
Thanks

Hi Marc 1.2840 is a possibility

Euro yen bullish pattern, confirmed breaking 107.10

Hi Luis Carlos,

I am new to this forum, what is the reasoning behind your bullish target for December?

I see H&S H4 Chart in sync with Elliot Waves and Bat Pattern taking us down to 1.20 around Xmas..

Thanks


Gray