EURUSD | Page 36465 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #729,281
  • Edited 1:35pm Dec 8, 2012 1:23pm | Edited 1:35pm
He mentioned pure maths before, so that is what he means the theoretical is the pure mathematics vs known which are applicable maths? So quantitative statistics with pure mathematics where would that fall? He also mentioned computation fluid dynamics, so what the heck in holy he_ is that! He also seems like he calls them higher level and lower level mathematics not pure or applied mathematics. Yall is hurtin my brain now.
  • #729,282
  • Dec 8, 2012 1:27pm Dec 8, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting Vachus
On the subject of EURUSD :

I still stand by, that 1.29 is one of those numbers that exist on the chart just for mathematics counting and doesn't have any Midterm respectable support or resistance ...

which mean we are back again to 1.30 - which should be a good news for me, because i missed covering at 1.31 and longing 1.28800 ...

There should be Bullish news on Greek government successful bond buying - this one should be a mover...

There's a massive divergence in 4hr chart, interesting to see what happens Monday, might just spike under 1.29 before they go up, I think it will test 1.3 as you said then may be a head and shoulders as people have mentioned before.
  • #729,283
  • Edited 5:07pm Dec 8, 2012 1:41pm | Edited 5:07pm
Quoting Fxbandito
He mentioned pure maths before, so that is what he means the theoretical is the pure mathematics vs known which are applicable maths? So quantitative statistics with pure mathematics where would that fall? He also mentioned computation fluid dynamics, so what the heck in holy he_ is that! Yall is hurtin my brain now.

Broadly speaking I suppose pure maths are theorems and proofs and applied maths are application of these theorems, but not always that clear cut. Satistics, they usually just say statistics, and computational fluid dynamics will fall under applied maths. Proper mathematicians, being mathematicians, will usually never use terminologies as vaguely and loosely as he did, they are very very particular and precise.
  • #729,284
  • Dec 8, 2012 1:46pm Dec 8, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting CoolJL
There's a massive divergence in 4hr chart, interesting to see what happens Monday, might just spike under 1.29 before they go up, I think it will test 1.3 as you said then may be a head and shoulders as people have mentioned before.
Where is that ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #729,285
  • Dec 8, 2012 2:35pm Dec 8, 2012 2:35pm
Sorry I mean MACD divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled-1.png Size: 23 KB
  • #729,286
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:12pm Dec 8, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting CoolJL
Sorry I mean MACD divergence
this one could be invalided because it moved on interest rate news - so the move was interrupted somehow , and if we don't get the rate cut , price will jump back to 1.31 ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #729,287
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:34pm Dec 8, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting Yoenes
Eurusd 4H chart
Hey, nice clean chart, not sure of your origin of your tl is, but if it is the dailly weekly, it is a strong tl, the pimple above was what got bulls a little excited, whcih was fair enough, I think until pa broke that tl, this was nothing more than a correction, and now it back below it still is a correction of the daily trend, it was a pierce, yes, but bull need to break retest and hold.

Im not sure how your chart indi work, but if the sell signal is from the level as posted, you would be selling just above a strong daily falling tl but if it means to start looking for weakness for a sell and possibly could consider trading the same tl down, is a little better, I already have runners fron the 1st H&S and yes I will be looking a pa,s reaction if she returns to the falling tl, also the previous high, and lastly the 38fib of the present fall from march 2011 which is also the high of the HL pattern on i chart posting, , and present range, above this bulls will be in control.

We have been ranging since early September the 3 purple tl,s being the top zone of the range.

For a clearer indications of the break of the dailly tl, for the bulls would have been if the had taken out these highs, sadly for bulls they couldnt even get above the previous high 3138

And now the Bears have smacked pa back below the tl still not overly excited, because pa is in a very tricky area with multiple dynamics at work.

The present daily "Range" since early Sept
The ma,s 200 & 50 the 200 is presently cruising flat along the neckline of the new possible H&S, and the 50 is up, over and almost down throught 1 3000
Physc Level 1 3000
LL LH Pattern
Minor Rising TL
Fibs as posted
Divergences
& Fundies

So personally pa is smack in the middle of a highly volatile chop zone, and the safest trade presently is "No Trade" and wait for various possabilities to play out first and show a crearer victor.

I have play around with a couple charts to try show, different possabilities, there will be others with different angles, candle patterns etc
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uihiuh.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily 9 12 2012.jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4hr 9 12 2012.jpg Size: 99 KB
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #729,288
  • Dec 8, 2012 6:25pm Dec 8, 2012 6:25pm
here is the Stem and leaf plot for the eur/usd for the past 2 years

120 | 01266
122 | 012334555678888999999900111224444445678999
124 | 113444677789000112222333344455555677778888888899
126 | 2233444556778990022223335778888899
128 | 0122667777888991112222333444444555566667788889
130 | 00001222223344445555555555666678888889990000111112222333333333334445+8
132 | 0000001112222233333444444555666677789990222333444555566688899999
134 | 0001333334666678000111112334678
136 | 00035666779912234456666789999
138 | 0011122389990128
140 | 1245677234555566779999
142 | 011133333445556677880111112223335555566777888999
144 | 00001112233466778900013348
146 | 4

here is a smoothed chart of the eur/usd for the past two years as you can see the areas of interest are more visible here

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: smooth eur chart.jpg Size: 33 KB


here is a boxplot chart of the eur/usd
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: boxplot.eur.jpg Size: 23 KB


and I simulated the closing price of the 16 remaining days of this month 100,000 times using my simplification of the GARCH 1,1 volatility model as well as my own calculation of the simulated drift taking which is sensitive to momentum

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: simulation.jpg Size: 167 KB



as I project the future μ i take the last closing price and continuously compound the daily drift for the remaining periods = 1.2854

σ = 2.39%

the yellow lines are

top---------1.3093


mid---------1.2854


bottom------1.2610

here is my interpretation of the data....you are welcome to yours

the euro is bearish and if ceteris paribus given the current momentum and standard deviation we can expect the euro to close around 1.2850 by months end........however it can close with 68% confidence level between 1.3093 and 1.2610

given the empirical rule
the probabilities are

within one standard deviation= 68% 34% above the mean and 34% below the mean, greater than one standard deviation above= 2.5% and below = 2.5% for a total of 5% and greater than 3 standard deviations = .3% .15% above two standard deviations and .15% below 2 standard deviations.


looking at a daily chart and the smoothing chart ....I can guess that by the end of the month we will see the euro somewhere around 1.28

of course orders move price and statistics are post facto so I could be dead wrong.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,289
  • Dec 8, 2012 7:29pm Dec 8, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting the redlion
here is the Stem and leaf plot for the eur/usd for the past 2 years

.... so I could be dead wrong.
It is so confusing what you are trying to say.... Up or down.... Or range....And then down... Keep it as simple as you can so that you have people respect you, not necessarily to have your position and provide you with your daily target. Your charts - which we all have - mean crap to many... go fish somewhere else...
  • #729,290
  • Dec 8, 2012 7:29pm Dec 8, 2012 7:29pm
here is a more conventional chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: conventional price analysis.jpg Size: 212 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,291
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:23pm Dec 8, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting the redlion
here is a more conventional chart

Attachment
What the exact advantage of comparing this two charts and their correlation ?
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #729,292
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:38pm Dec 8, 2012 8:38pm
to me the advantages are more psychological ....because you see as pattern seeking primates looking at the eur/usd chart can lead me to see all kinds of things.

kind of like staring at the clouds.....


when I see these two charts together and as they are negatively correlated as evidenced by this linear regression.


It makes no sense for me to see two different things in both charts so.....I look for wave impulses and areas where liquidity has not been so generous as the momentum fades and the correction begins.....support and resistance areas develop.

in the bottom chart I can see it bullish so whatever subjective illusions i read into the eur/usd need to be the inverse for the usd/chf if i am only seeing it in one chart odds are my brain is making shit up.

could or could not be useful to other people...but one needs to know ones self
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: correlation.chf.eur.jpg Size: 54 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,293
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:44pm Dec 8, 2012 8:44pm
Thank. Nice explanation. Maybe you will like this also..

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #729,294
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:48pm Dec 8, 2012 8:48pm
When it comes to regression, in your case the correlated regression, shouldn't you actually have to figure out the linear correlation function? In other words, if this moves by so many pips, the other one should move by this many pips.. That's how I would use two or more correlated/inverse correlated pairs approach...There is actually a way to do that.. On the other hand, there is also something called autoregression that can be solved using ARIMA algorithm (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average).. Anyway, not sure what I'm trying to say..


Quoting the redlion
to me the advantages are more psychological ....because you see as pattern seeking primates looking at the eur/usd chart can lead me to see all kinds of things.

kind of like staring at the clouds.....


when I see these two charts together and as they are negatively correlated as evidenced by this linear regression.


It makes no sense for me to see two different things in both charts so.....I look for wave impulses and areas where liquidity has not been so generous as the momentum fades and the correction begins.....support and resistance...
  • #729,295
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:53pm Dec 8, 2012 8:53pm


Quoting Toranaga
Thank. Nice explanation. Maybe you will like this also..

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/o...rest/main.html
now at the pain of sounding ignorant.......how do you read it. Looks alien to me so If you would be so kind as to instruct me. There are the option strikes and the difference in calls and puts but i don't quite know what I am looking at
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,296
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:54pm Dec 8, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting attila
When it comes to regression, in your case the correlated regression, shouldn't you actually have to figure out the linear correlation function? In other words, if this moves by so many pips, the other one should move by this many pips.. That's how I would use two or more correlated/inverse correlated pairs approach...There is actually a way to do that.. On the other hand, there is also something called autoregression that can be solved using ARIMA algorithm (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average).. Anyway, not sure what I'm trying to say..
never mind. I see you have the correlation coefficient there. so probably you did figure it out...
  • #729,297
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:56pm Dec 8, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting attila
When it comes to regression, in your case the correlated regression, shouldn't you actually have to figure out the linear correlation function? In other words, if this moves by so many pips, the other one should move by this many pips.. That's how I would use two or more correlated/inverse correlated pairs approach...There is actually a way to do that.. On the other hand, there is also something called autoregression that can be solved using ARIMA algorithm (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average).. Anyway, not sure what I'm trying to say..
yes, once you get a best fit linear model you can figure out how y moves in relation to x

Call:
lm(formula = chf.returns ~ eur.returns)

Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.022767 -0.000898 -0.000053 0.000611 0.043093

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 5.483e-05 2.164e-04 0.253 0.8
eur.returns -7.527e-01 4.971e-02 -15.142 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.004828 on 497 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.3157, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3143
F-statistic: 229.3 on 1 and 497 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16



here is the correlation coefficient -0.5618636
and here is the standard deviation of chf.returns / standard deviation of euro.returns 1.339565
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,298
  • Dec 8, 2012 9:00pm Dec 8, 2012 9:00pm
I didn't quite look into this in detail but something's bouncing around my head. Is it possible to tie together multiple pairs and have them point to e/u using different, or maybe one function? In other words many to one instead of a one to one correlation.
Quoting the redlion
yes, once you get a best fit linear model you can figure out how y moves in relation to x

Call:
lm(formula = chf.returns ~ eur.returns)

Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.022767 -0.000898 -0.000053 0.000611 0.043093

Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 5.483e-05 2.164e-04 0.253 0.8
eur.returns -7.527e-01 4.971e-02 -15.142 <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Residual standard error: 0.004828 on 497 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.3157, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3143...
  • #729,299
  • Dec 8, 2012 9:03pm Dec 8, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting attila
I didn't quite look into this in detail but something's bouncing around my head. Is it possible to tie together multiple pairs and have them point to e/u using different, or maybe one function?
not sure what you meant there.....if you would explain in more detail so i know exactly what your thought is?


are you talking about hedging via correlation and risk assessment by linear regression and relative movement in standard deviation?

like basketting currencies to capture swap.....and limit risk?

if so yes...... you can treat it like a portfolio of stocks by taking the standard deviation of the portfolio and figuring out the risk to the position size you are holding in each
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #729,300
  • Dec 8, 2012 9:06pm Dec 8, 2012 9:06pm
I often do that to anchor my first position like i did in december 3

"using a 10,000 unit position = mini lot

short the euro with 1 mini lot, and buy 1 mini lot of the yen
time frame for stats= last 6 months

sigma(yen)/sigma(euro)= .7791 that means that euro volatility is greater than yen by 1- .7791
this leaves you exposed to the euro short position more than the yen long position

sqrt(w^2*var(yen.returns)+w^2*var(u ro.returns)+2*(w*w*sd(yen.returns)* sd(uro.returns)*cor(-uro.returns,yen.returns))) we calculate the standard deviation of both positions this variable I will call y

the standard deviation of this position y is .20%
y*(position size"in our case 10,000"* euro exchange rate + position size* 1/ exchange rate of yen)= dollar amount equivalent of position

for the mini lot your risk is 27.08 dollars for this initial short biased position...... and as you continue to gain on the downside you can cut your yen position to leave you fully exposed to the short..... or exit yen at favorable retracement."

i gave out that strategy then.....using a minilot but as you know.....once we are using standard lots the swaps are more visible so I take advantage of swap and correlations as well as hedging downside risk (also to take into account is the spread cost of course.....so you wouldn't do this for a very short term position) the upside has to justify the double spread.....most times the swap will pay the spreads.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
419 traders viewing now