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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #62,581
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:11am Dec 7, 2012 8:11am
Quoting vishalshan
Nice game PT Missed my chance..

Do you think 2880 will blow off today ?
That all depends on the NY cash markets... Even if it does give way, we'll maybe see 1.2800/10 max. I think any further move down will only come after an upside correction. Could be wrong though. Time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,582
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:13am Dec 7, 2012 8:13am
I have a question for all forum members. Which Euro pairs do you watch as a LEADING indicator of EUR/USD? A sentence or two explaining your conviction would be great. I am building a chart panel to supplement the markets I already watch (DOW, SP, Gold, Oil) Thank you
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,583
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:14am Dec 7, 2012 8:14am
Quoting Ken A
Going to need extremely bad news to push it harder down.
yeah. if my insanity were a tad worse, i would take it long for a bounce. now that materially larger downside movement has finally emerged, i am only willing to be on the sell side of the euro. there is just WAY too much event risk to even consider going long, especially in the face of:

1. jobs friday before the weekend
2. potential eve of italian government's collapse
3. greek buyback shell game
4. yesterday's commentary from Draghi

Quoting EuroTraderJD
I have a question for all forum members. Which Euro pairs do you watch as a LEADING indicator of EUR/USD? A sentence or two explaining your conviction would be great. I am building a chart panel to supplement the markets I already watch (DOW, SP, Gold, Oil) Thank you
price is your leading indicator. looking for the pump and dump as price moves to extremes in terms of standard deviations

btw: congrats to all those who were aggressively short. i am very jealous. very little money made this week
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,584
  • Edited 8:32am Dec 7, 2012 8:18am | Edited 8:32am
Quoting EuroTraderJD
I have a question for all forum members. Which Euro pairs do you watch as a LEADING indicator of EUR/USD? A sentence or two explaining your conviction would be great. I am building a chart panel to supplement the markets I already watch (DOW, SP, Gold, Oil) Thank you
None. Because AUD and NZD from few months back has transformed to safe haven and risk currencies. The best is pull up as many charts as visually possible and watch the movement.

The closest you will get is USD Index but, it doesn't indicate other currencies other than:

Euro (EUR), 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
Poundsterling (GBP), 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD), 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK), 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%

DOW and SP are still correlated but might put away Gold and Crude for a while.
  • #62,585
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:20am Dec 7, 2012 8:20am
Quoting Ken A
None. Because AUD and NZD from few months back has transformed to safe haven and risk currencies. The best is pull up as many charts as visually possible and watch the movement.
IMF is adding AUD as a reserve currency . shorting AUD is a dangerous play in the coming weeks/months. not only do you have the swap working against you but now you also have the IMF against you. nothing like paying $50/day in interest on top of all other risk factors. forget that
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,586
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:21am Dec 7, 2012 8:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
That all depends on the NY cash markets... Even if it does give way, we'll maybe see 1.2800/10 max. I think any further move down will only come after an upside correction. Could be wrong though. Time will tell.
Already had a good short run for today and can't ask more

I follow your analysis regularly and pretty much love your techno functional knowledge on the markets. Keep rocking
  • #62,587
  • Edited 9:43am Dec 7, 2012 8:24am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting redteamgo
IMF is adding AUD as a reserve currency . shorting AUD is a dangerous play in the coming weeks/months. not only do you have the swap working against you but now you also have the IMF against you. nothing like paying $50/day in interest on top of all other risk factors. forget that
It's risky post QE3 to short AUD and NZD (scalping is another story). More or less to long U/CAD for long term is like a losing battle unless US is the first to tighten monetary policy and becomes the world's largest production Energy source.
  • #62,588
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:33am Dec 7, 2012 8:33am
Quoting redteamgo
price is your leading indicator. looking for the pump and dump as price moves to extremes in terms of standard deviations
For SD I use a Bollinger Band 13,2 Thank you for your tip.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,589
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:34am Dec 7, 2012 8:34am
Quoting Ken A
None. Because AUD and NZD from few months back has transformed to safe haven and risk currencies. The best is pull up as many charts as visually possible and watch the movement.

The closest you will get is USD Index but, it doesn't indicate other currencies other than:

Euro (EUR), 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
Poundsterling (GBP), 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD), 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK), 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%

DOW and SP are still correlated but might put away Gold and Crude for a while.
Thanks Ken.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,590
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:35am Dec 7, 2012 8:35am
Quoting redteamgo
nothing like paying $50/day in interest on top of all other risk factors. forget that
AMEN
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,591
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:41am Dec 7, 2012 8:41am
Quoting redteamgo
IMF is adding AUD as a reserve currency . shorting AUD is a dangerous play in the coming weeks/months. not only do you have the swap working against you but now you also have the IMF against you. nothing like paying $50/day in interest on top of all other risk factors. forget that
That is if you shorted only 5 standard lots. Multiply that by 10,000 minimum for large funds.
  • #62,592
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:42am Dec 7, 2012 8:42am
Quoting cdndollar

If you had came out with the above statement when Euro bounced 2 figures from 1.2660 I would have given you the benefit of doubt.. but calling a 4+ figures "follow through" rise from 1.2660 a "bounce" now is according to your words out of context..
What are you talking about ?

Where did i say that it was a technical bounce ? that move from the 1.2660 all the way up to 1.31+ had at least 4-5 different stories in it. And bulls where lucky to get all of them in their favour in one sitting. It had A LOT to do with the political leaders statements and the whole Greece business. If it wheren't a BS move (in one go) then the market wouldn't be where it is now. Cause nothing had changed fundamentally...Draghi and Osborne just came out and said what was there to say.

Either your misunderstanding smth and perhaps you can explain what did you meant by that ?


Quoting cdndollar
Interpreting the behavior of "big players" via TA had served yours truly quite well for many moons now.. I would venture to guess that when I was interpreting their behavior on D & C size graph papers you was still in pampers..

You would guess right...although i'm missing the point. Time doesn't always equal knowledge amount.

Quoting cdndollar
That being said.. unlike pikers, "big players" behavior rarely reverse in a "V" manner.. especially when they have 10+ figures M/T paydays in sight..
it did back in May 2012 didn't it ? Go through Piptrapper's Ka-Ching charts for that which also lines up with the Wyckoff method ...On a grand scale, it's not a V-shape reversal either

Quoting cdndollar
Euro now @ very good risk-adjusted buy levels..
well, you also said that when euro was 1.2926 as per your chart meaning that at one point you were down 40+ pips so already not a really good risk-adjusted buy in my mind. Being almost 50 pips down without a stop means that a good risk-adjusted strategy would only justify at or a new high for you. Luck be with you on that one. Sure, anything's possible. It has come down a lot without a retracement so there's several short term unfinished business out there. But nothing to do with this Singapore sling...
  • #62,593
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:46am Dec 7, 2012 8:46am
Quoting Ken A
That is if you shorted only 5 standard lots. Multiply that by 10,000 minimum for large funds.
Thats what I said to myself a week ago eith the EA. Of course getting the swap was great, but then it crash 150 points and I discovered that volatility trumps swap. Fortunately I decided that I was going to hold for a couple of years and now it is in the green.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #62,594
  • Dec 7, 2012 8:51am Dec 7, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Ken A
That is if you shorted only 5 standard lots. Multiply that by 10,000 minimum for large funds.


Quoting AaronWard
Thats what I said to myself a week ago eith the EA. Of course getting the swap was great, but then it crash 150 points and I discovered that volatility trumps swap. Fortunately I decided that I was going to hold for a couple of years and now it is in the green.
large dollar, low leverage, high swap trade is a great carry trade. high leverage, high dollar, high swap is the danger zone
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,595
  • Dec 7, 2012 9:27am Dec 7, 2012 9:27am
Range 1.2895-1.2914
  • #62,596
  • Dec 7, 2012 9:53am Dec 7, 2012 9:53am
Sold at 1.2940
  • #62,597
  • Dec 7, 2012 10:07am Dec 7, 2012 10:07am
Quoting rekon67
post invalidating 1.2880 -- 1.2840-20 -- 1.2660. But I would like to see if the double bottom works.
Double bottom generally good for buyers, so have a long scalp for 50 pips, thats it for NFP Friday, take care all.
  • #62,598
  • Dec 7, 2012 10:58am Dec 7, 2012 10:58am
Quoting redteamgo



large dollar, low leverage, high swap trade is a great carry trade. high leverage, high dollar, high swap is the danger zone
Yeah. Technical entries with a long term horizon make a lot of sense.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #62,599
  • Dec 7, 2012 11:00am Dec 7, 2012 11:00am
Quoting Ken A
Watch weekly close, if above 1.295x. Safer place to short 1.3xx.
30 min 50 sma right at 2940-2950 area..gonna see if price stays below.
  • #62,600
  • Dec 7, 2012 1:14pm Dec 7, 2012 1:14pm
Late Friday trivia.

World's worst lovers

A poll of 15,000 women found that Germans are considered “too smelly”.
English lovers came second because they are so lazy
Men from Sweden were branded “too quick to finish” and came third.

Spanish men topped the table as the best lovers, followed by Brazilians and Italians.
Canada ranked a respectable 10th but they’d be higher if not for all the squares out west.

German men are 'world's worst lovers' with English men in second place
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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