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  • #728,041
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:17pm Dec 5, 2012 10:17pm
Quoting 5percent
an example now would be price may retrace from 1.3045 area back to 1.3058 and 1.3058/59 may shows weakness, showing support turns resistance, a breakout/price trend continuation will be valid if 1.3059 shows resistance for price to move up from 1.3045. However, due to a breakout that happens, normally resulting in a longer 5/15min bars which is very bearish/bullish, price may not return to former S or R, which can be shown by a doji.

If a person spotted a strong and long bar in a bearish selling, followed by a bearish doji, it's weakness....
Good post. Took me 2 cups of coffee to digest it, and I printed it out. Thanks.
  • #728,042
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:18pm Dec 5, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
its simple.. c the low?.. now he post the low. after it is the low. and says we may retrace there... learn anything?
gator brother how are you? I think euro is way too bullish and is simply not falling much to confirm a bearish trend. so if a rebound comes 1.31 will be targetted first followed by 20, 38, 45. but i am staying away from it.

ur views?
  • #728,043
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:21pm Dec 5, 2012 10:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354756174broke, but 79.47 usually happens with or w/o a wedge. 80.03 will void this. so the eu may bounce in the 3028 area back to 31xx....it could happen anytime before 80.03... other then s/r.. that's the last hurdle i c. ..atm.
3026.8 seems more likely over 3028 atm.. that's if we get here. the bounce it not a sure thing.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #728,044
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:25pm Dec 5, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
3026.8 seems more likely over 3028 atm.. that's if we get here. the bounce it not a sure thing.
seems to disagree with you. santa claus rally in stocks has started yesterday and dollar index is still in bearish territory
  • #728,045
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:30pm Dec 5, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting Nachiket
gator brother how are you? I think euro is way too bullish and is simply not falling much to confirm a bearish trend. so if a rebound comes 1.31 will be targetted first followed by 20, 38, 45. but i am staying away from it.

ur views?
how much it moves has little to do with it.. you dont turn a ship in a bathtub. using the usdx, as a guide. indicates its not ready yet. i posted the 29 hour crap yesterday.. the wedge did break for the usd bulls.. they just didnt pay the toll yet. and the lower tl that's still unbroken i posted after 00 est Thursday min... and that starts in 1.5 hours. ..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #728,046
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:33pm Dec 5, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting Nachiket
seems to disagree with you. santa claus rally in stocks has started yesterday and dollar index is still in bearish territory
u should read again
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #728,047
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:38pm Dec 5, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
u should read again
ok. by any chance do you trade usd/cad?
  • #728,048
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:43pm Dec 5, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting Nachiket
ok. by any chance do you trade usd/cad?
not lately
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #728,049
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:03pm Dec 5, 2012 11:03pm
EURUSD 15min

http://charts.mql5.com/1/45/eurusd-m...computer-2.png
  • #728,050
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:28pm Dec 5, 2012 11:28pm
over the past few hours, price is consolidating below 1.3059, 59 was our ytd's low. showing support has become resistance in the short term. this is weak resistance. As 45-59 may formed a base for retracement higher/upwards and continuation of bulls strength,

We are 1 level lower on support. btw 59-45. Consolidation box can be placed here. Buy attempt can be after price conquered 59 or preferably 624.

Price action - sell stops are still below daily low. the move up will be resisted by 76 first where the first consolidation of hi low btw 62-76 before the break of 59 into 45.

Buy is likely to be after 38.2 into 61.8. As 61.8 is also resisted by 94 area, which was circle in red. on the left as seen.

One may look to sell hi, buy low within the box to hedge and cancel the wrong order with a good stop loss, while trail the other out. A better positions will be taken after breakout is spotted out of the box. As its a overall bull run in the past 2-3 weeks, and a short term bear run from yesterday, there are battle btw the bull/bear. A continuation of crack support will be seen as bearish towards 1.3020-25 or even lower. A bounce here if the bid's strength is tougher than the offer on top, may target higher once it crossed 94, to attack our current high or at most stall with a lower high lower than 1.3125. If a lower high is rejected at 1.3105-13 without the strength to go higher, it can be seen as a lower hi, price may continue to challenge lower again.

Price is always likely to challenge each level of support and back to resistance, until the buyers and sellers of each side give in in either taking profits, adding new positions, trigger of news -> to change sudden volatility in either direction. Technical are merely risk & probability analysis of the price action.

Few important level of fibonacci is the 38.2 and 61.8. 38.2 can provide more inward strength in trend, where as 61.8 is providing secondary strength. Retracement trading is favorably towards 50.0. 38.2 may provide first rejection for further trend. Price may also go to 61.8 before further trend. And may just crossed into 78.2 and 100.0 . Well, there are many rules/probability of each level, its how the trader want to plan his risk/reward/targets. All trading entries comes with risks!
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  • #728,051
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:57pm Dec 5, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting 5percent
over the past few hours, price is consolidating below 1.3059, 59 was our ytd's low. showing support has become resistance in the short term. this is weak resistance. As 45-59 may formed a base for retracement higher/upwards and continuation of bulls strength,

We are 1 level lower on support. btw 59-45. Consolidation box can be placed here. Buy attempt can be after price conquered 59 or preferably 624.

Price action - sell stops are still below daily low. the move up will be resisted by 76 first where the first consolidation of hi low btw 62-76...
Nice post.

I am looking at a triple top scenario. Perhaps we will see one last bull taking us back to the 1.312 area, a break will see us much higher at 1.32XX otherwise a strong resistance will send us back down to the 20's but this is will not happen overnight. Never the less 1.30 will be another battle on its own (1).

For my chart, triple tops show support level approx 1.307-1.313 while the bat pattern supports the downside back down to 1.20 (of course this is not a one step process nor will it be a one trip journey given by levels 1,2,3,4 and 5)

For a trading opportunity, I would recommend shorting once market has broken level 1 (1.3000) with tp above the 23.6 fib (1.287), then another entry below 236 targeting above 318 (1.272) etc.

edit: another opportunity, later, would be trading the break of the 200sma, which acts as a resistance as market is above the moving average.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #728,052
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:13am Dec 6, 2012 12:13am
looks like the sellside algos on full display today metals au eu gu
  • #728,053
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:25am Dec 6, 2012 12:25am
Quoting John Gray
Nice post.

I am looking at a triple top scenario. Perhaps we will see one last bull taking us back to the 1.312 area, a break will see us much higher at 1.32XX otherwise a strong resistance will send us back down to the 20's but this is will not happen overnight. Never the less 1.30 will be another battle on its own (1).

For my chart, triple tops show support level approx 1.307-1.313 while the bat pattern supports the downside back down to 1.20 (of course this is not a one step process nor will it be a one trip journey given by levels 1,2,3,4...
Morning.

I am also seeing a possible TT as I have exactly 1.31256 on two bars in bid yesterday morning here.
  • #728,054
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:53am Dec 6, 2012 12:53am
Yesss... Let us see eur close this year upper 1.33...

I still have long position @1.3110 and waiting for @1.3030 for another long position (averaging in this case)...
  • #728,055
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:14am Dec 6, 2012 1:14am
morning

As indicated at the beginning of the week EU has made a good clean 5 wave trend up from 1.266x to 1.312x and all the time it remains below the high my assumption is that it is correcting that move.

Taking the possible correction one stage at a time, I am looking at the last swing up from 1.288x - 1.312x first.
As you can see from my chart I have an initial target zone covering 3052 to 3024 and expect pullback towards 1.3100 from in that zone.
An overshoot would probably see a bounce off 1.300x.
You will note that it is possible that the turn has already started as the price has dipped into the zone already, but I think we will have more downside towards 41 & 32 first.

Once it completes a pull back without taking out 312x high then what is showing as the initial corrective move wA, wB will become the first part of the larger corrective move down and will be targeting 299x to 293x initially - better target info available after the pullback.

So I am trading shorts today but expect a pullback by 3024.

Currently still short from yesterday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #728,056
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:18am Dec 6, 2012 1:18am
If anyone have noticed, the min5 consolidation is quite a pain in the ass, which is why taking trades in such zones are very dangerous, either ur are right or wrong. stop loss outside of the zone is safer.

Price managed to hit 62 and rejected back, as mentioned on my earlier post, 62 is the area to watch if the climb back will to be successful or not. A horizontal line can be placed on that area and can seen there's resistance still. But upon session opening, price can take the jump anywhere. It's flirting on the 50sma and is gradually expanding to the low side of the box.
  • #728,057
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:24am Dec 6, 2012 1:24am
there is nothing which tells me euro will fall towards 1.302x zone. still looking for a rebound to 1.308x area
  • #728,058
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:30am Dec 6, 2012 1:30am
Quoting Nachiket
there is nothing which tells me euro will fall towards 1.302x zone. still looking for a rebound to 1.308x area
I agree we are now at the support of the TL that was broken on the 3rd.
  • #728,059
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:36am Dec 6, 2012 1:36am
My forecast for toady:

SELL
If the price breaks through the level 1.30455 bearish movement will start. Targets of the bearish movement: 1.30005, 1.29395.
  • #728,060
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:37am Dec 6, 2012 1:37am
Good BUY opportunity arising under the 4-hours
-The chart trend remains UP
-Majority of trend indicators pointing down
-Short term indicators (wave) are pointing down but it is in Oversold region
Expect a rebound and rise (Provided Draghi doesn't say something bad)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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