EURUSD

Target 1:

1.3020.

Took half and SL moved to BE ... 15% week and calling it quits for the week and gonna read and study rest of the week.. 90% PA only trading this week. And my best week yet Vouch? bahahahaha

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354756174broke, but 79.47 usually happens with or w/o a wedge. 80.03 will void this. so the eu may bounce in the 3028 area back to 31xx....it could happen anytime before 80.03... other then s/r.. that's the last hurdle i c. ..atm.

first lower low on 4H. watch how it will bounce at 1.301x. it is good zone to try long.

It depends, firstly, u need to identify the real breakout area, for example, for yesterday, commonly price will react 2 ways.

1.3105-1.3125 where price was consolidating, Break 1.3105, price dive lower first, normally price may for example dive to 1.3090, then pull back to 1.3105 then have rejection on 1.3105 showing support turns resistance then go lower, but ytd was the example of break support @ 1.3105 and it dive lower into 2 levels. of consolidation.

Let us look at a bigger picture instead?

On the picture on the lowest A B C D, where price was moving downtrend into 1.2656 area.
* Last support break, price send lower into A. Then it took a leap from A to B approximately 100 pips.

So there's a rejection off low, showing support strength.

So the pull back can show a strength up to 23.6 or 78.2 of retracement depending how u place ur fibonacci, which we located a C, where i place the blue box.
So buy the retracement is actually saying here on that level of C, blue box on 1.2689 area. All time frames varies, is how u see it, it may or may not work if the existing level of support/bids/short covering work or don't work. Every time a pattern involves a risk.
* an uptrend is a lower high and higher high.

The next A level also returns to near 78.2/61.8 pull back. Where i circle a morning star.

Sell off followed by a pin bar, rejection off 50sma, one can use 50sma or 55sma to know where's the likelihood of MACD level, a pin bar off 50SMA will show the macd remains on a positive terrain. a rejection off 50SMA is commonly a continuation of trend.

U can trade the breakout using 5 min 50sma too, there's a way, just observe ur chart.

So the next bull run on next A to B overlapsed the red circle resistance on the left. Our famous 1.2880 area.Which is why that level is so crucial for adding to go long. The next level is already identified on the chart at 1.3020 area blue box which may coincide with the trendline Where price is likely to land on.

However, a strong downward push may attempt to test 50sma , to either touch and overlapsed which may fall off trendline or touch and rebounded as if the previous morning star. On the other hand, price may never reach there and pull back to D's high or higher, we won't know how price will move 100% right? it's just a planned set up. A break of trendline will means there's weakness and no more strong uptrend, which is why some trendline traders respect trendline so much and uses very tight stop and good risk reward/trailing stops. For me , i use Price action, trendline and fibonacci mainly. other indicator are there to paint some ideas and telling me what's happening, as indicators are lag.

On my 2nd picture is the example of pull back sell the retracement. When a trend happened in my view, i look for weakness to add, which can be either on trendline with 2-3pip stop on limit/live entries or. sell stop below the retracement pullback. and buy stop for uptrend.

80.03 is the void.. so a bounce may happen anytime now, back to near the high.. form a "W" then drop again..

an example now would be price may retrace from 1.3045 area back to 1.3058 and 1.3058/59 may shows weakness, showing support turns resistance, a breakout/price trend continuation will be valid if 1.3059 shows resistance for price to move up from 1.3045. However, due to a breakout that happens, normally resulting in a longer 5/15min bars which is very bearish/bullish, price may not return to former S or R, which can be shown by a doji.

If a person spotted a strong and long bar in a bearish selling, followed by a bearish doji, it's weakness. If a person spotted a strong and long bar in bullish uptrend buying, followed by a bullish doji, it's strength. A good technical pairs that respect r and s would be aud/usd, if u want to trade such breakout/retracement.

My own advice
*If a trader saw a consolidation box between 1.3060-1.3075, never ever attempt to buy lower from 1.3060, as support and resistance are meant to be broken, look lower then 1.3060 by at least 15-20pips or even more to buy instead of numbers at 1.3055-59 below former support of 60, as such cases will likely to result in a trader's trade being in the breakout area. [But the bigger the consolidation, the bigger the breakout strength] - Intra day point of view only. Once a breakout happen, even if a counter trade to go long lower attempt would be advice to be dropped off at former support, as support may turn resistance, unless price action leaped over, then favors to go for further retracement using trailing stops to protect position.


*The daily low and high after new york's closing or ur broker closing are meant to broken, so the daily high will keep extending in an uptrend, the daily low will keep expanding in a downtrend. Which is why box consolidation and trendline are there to guide, Fibo are there to analyze pullback/strength.[/list]

If price can overlapsed previous support in a sell off, it means there's no valid further breakout. Price may actually be going up instead as it overlpased previous support which can be seen on the first picture of last support break where i circled in blue. So such cases normally happened in the region of 23.6 where a base is formed.

* A longer term counter-trade trader would normally trade any breakout back to former resistance in an uptrend, and former support in a downtrend.

* If price goes beyond 1.3020 level pierce deep through trendline to 1.2980 region, it may means resistance is broken back, so a trader may want to turn bearish as it can be another example of last resistance break, for a bear run.

My comments are merely analysis of my perspectives/experience and may not be accurate, take it on ur own risk.

entire post here Post 728,029
the wedge is now out the picture. .. it broke and it should go north.. but 80.03 is protected now.. before 80.03, 79.48 usually happens first.. its what i got right or wrong. north before south (usdx) ....eu south first, after north, then "W" then south.. right or wrong

something like this.

Some have already mentioned this but I would also advise caution for people going short too early. This is so far only a minor correction with the 23.6% not yet tested. Because this fibonacci level sits just under the s/r zone broken a few days ago, the confluence of factors will likely provide a significant zone of supply, and in my opinion provides an excellent opportunity to go long short-term. Only a break below this can be seen as a sign of a potential reversal.

Furthermore, the resistance zone / double top was barely scraped....I would expect price to hit it at least one more time.

very few b/o continue w/o a retrace not long after the b/o.. there are always exceptions. most if us are not exceptional. so most of us cant pick these out ahead of time. i am excluding the lairs. they seem to know, we will not pull back, when we dont, after the fact. yes, if you wait, you will miss these. and your account will remain neutral... but with a pullback your reward grows and your risk shrinks.

Thanks for your input. I hope this is the last attempt for usdx bear so my EUR/USD trade turns profitable before Jan.

i am looking at dollar index. what i posted about it, is right most of the time. that dont mean its right this time. and it dont mean the euro will go lower after. its what happens more times then not. its never a certainty.. and you have to use your own skills. if it is correct a slightly HH should happen.. and 3139 may contain it.

Not buying here, just waiting for a better place to short

Same here, unloaded 2 lots today and holding the rest so I can get a better position, hopefully soon. At this point it's critical for me to be safe now than sorry later incase eur decides to go on one of it's crazy break out. This way I got both sides working for me now.

My dual plan


This TF is valid till LON opening

Quick survey for the EUR/USD (Dec 5, 2012 23:00) ...


2012-12-04_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Roll Dn _ W-49 # FC51 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (133.3 KB)

2012-12-05_00h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Roll Up _ W-49 # EY51 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (129.5 KB)

2012-12-05_min060_EURUSD.PNG (24.1 KB)

2012-12-05_22h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rolling _ W-49 # EY51 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (129.3 KB)

2012-12-05_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Roll Dn _ W-49 # FG51 (EN Daily, Weekly).PNG (128.6 KB)

Looks as if 1.3045/43 would have been our A REVERSO di TOKYO for now ...






;-|

I really can't understand your posts like this

its simple.. c the low?.. now he post the low. after it is the low. and says we may retrace there... learn anything?