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  • #727,441
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:03pm Dec 4, 2012 5:03pm
wow! lot of input there. thank you everyone for the insights!
  • #727,442
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:05pm Dec 4, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting 1candlepower
this is a good time to notice a couple things:

1) if you look back - say 3-4 years - in FF threads, (you and attila have been around for a while) you will find continuous critical and derisive discussion of scalping. 10+V's used to ridicule anyone who went for 10 or 15 pips all time... now, you look at these same people here and on the useless thread, and their just tickled to get 6 pips!! what changed??!

2) the number of 100 pip candles (per month) on the daily has definitely decreased in the past year, even though price may move from day...
Definately. look at 2008
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #727,443
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:06pm Dec 4, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting yelena
Adaptation. FX investors has dropped to 48% vs 2008 (one of the highest) that's why brokers always have this 100% or 50% welcome bonus. When all markets fail, FX will still be here unless we go to barter. This business will remain as lucrative as ever.

When I was in demo, FX had a 200-300 daily average. I am really amazed how people can trade UJ at 50 for an ATR.
i'm curious, where did you find that data?
  • #727,444
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:09pm Dec 4, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting John Gray
AUS GDP data could be lower then expected, being a driver for rate cut.

unless this is also already priced in.
Looks like PA has an initial short target in the cluster below there. I'll probably place long orders after which, longs til tomorrow
Attached Image
  • #727,445
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:15pm Dec 4, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting yelena
Adaptation. FX investors has dropped to 48% vs 2008 (one of the highest) that's why brokers always have this 100% or 50% welcome bonus. When all markets fail, FX will still be here unless we go to barter. This business will remain as lucrative as ever.

When I was in demo, FX had a 200-300 daily average. I am really amazed how people can trade UJ at 50 for an ATR.
it happened.. but it was very few.. times 200/300.. and when it did, it was mostly on yen pairs and a crises. before 2006, it was boring like today..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #727,446
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:17pm Dec 4, 2012 5:17pm
Got buy orders at 1.3090,75,65.. hope to pick up some cheapies before the next leg up...
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  • #727,447
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:18pm Dec 4, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting 1candlepower
. i don't see that anymore. what is see now, looks a length of pine tree needles.... just continuous sequence of chintzy little pull-backs and a relentless forward motion.
so you have to start learning to trade these spikes.
  • #727,448
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:19pm Dec 4, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
it happened.. but it was very few.. times 200/300.. and when it did, it was mostly on yen pairs and a crises. before 2006, it was boring like today..

yeah, that's right. i sometimes forget how much was going on.
  • #727,449
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:19pm Dec 4, 2012 5:19pm
These are few SR levels from my MT4 Template from 08-10-12 see how EU behaves with SR levels
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/26841108/0512120107.JPG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0512120107.jpg Size: 122 KB
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #727,450
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:24pm Dec 4, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting attila
so you have to start learning to trade these spikes.

ha! funny thing is, i'm pretty good at predicting the top/bottom of spikes and used to avoid trading them because it was too easy and i didn't want to become dependent on something that might go away. NOW, i'm reduced to using it as my best shot... things change.
  • #727,451
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:26pm Dec 4, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting 1candlepower
ha! funny thing is, i'm pretty good at predicting the top/bottom of spikes and used to avoid trading them because it was too easy and i didn't want to become dependent on something that might go away. NOW, i'm reduced to using it as my best shot... things change.

What happens when the tops keeps going up? or the bottom keeps dropping?
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  • #727,452
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:27pm Dec 4, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting BobGnarly
What happens when the tops keeps going up? or the bottom keeps dropping?
sometimes they do, that's why there's the finger on the button.kind of like now. I don't think the Market will ever wave a flag saying this is it.. the top/bottom.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #727,453
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting attila
sometimes they do, that's why there's the finger on the button. I don't think the Market will ever wave a flag saying this is it.. the top/bottom.

kind of like now.

Attachment

Yes I'm sitting here waiting to pull triggers too... Just find predicting tops the same as flipping a coin. But w.e works for people, good for them. We all have diff styles
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  • #727,454
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm
and although the entry was good, considering it got stuck, we'll gonna take the money.
  • #727,455
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
it happened.. but it was very few.. times 200/300.. and when it did, it was mostly on yen pairs and a crises. before 2006, it was boring like today..
G-man,

Would you conclude that this current low-atr environment is more difficult to trade in, thus people who are trained/becoming efficient in this environment will be even better traders when the atr returns to the good ol' days?
  • #727,456
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm Dec 4, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Yes I'm sitting here waiting to pull triggers too... Just find predicting tops the same as flipping a coin. But w.e works for people, good for them. We all have diff styles
True.. I'm already outty. You see, problem is, if you look at a chart you'll see that each pip is traded multiple times, i.e it retraces and re retraces with 10-20 pips.. That's why the classical SL approach doesn't really work. So my rule is, if I don't see a healthy move my way right away, I take what I can. and look for another entry.. I would not be surprised for this to go back up to 3104..
  • #727,457
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm Dec 4, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting BobGnarly
What happens when the tops keeps going up? or the bottom keeps dropping?
it's intuition... i just know intuitively when i made a wrong call and i'm about to get run over by a steam roller. it's an idiot savant thing
  • #727,458
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:32pm Dec 4, 2012 5:32pm
I'm very long biased as I posted my chart this past weekend, with a TP of 1.3155. Been taking profits all week on pullbacks and rides up. I would love to see a 23 fib pullback on the 4h to 1.3059 before we move any higher..


I must say I had my first profitable month last month since I started live trading about 3 months ago, and the funny thing is it was all naked charts, just some fib analysis,PA and fundys
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  • #727,459
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:35pm Dec 4, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
it happened.. but it was very few.. times 200/300.. and when it did, it was mostly on yen pairs and a crises. before 2006, it was boring like today..
Gator, no correction in eu, it keep on finding new high.

It is not healthy.
Intraday only.
  • #727,460
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:37pm Dec 4, 2012 5:37pm
Quoting kokopelli
G-man,

Would you conclude that this current low-atr environment is more difficult to trade in, thus people who are trained/becoming efficient in this environment will be even better traders when the atr returns to the good ol' days?

This low ATR is like pulling teeth, remember the good ol' days like 2004 or 2005 when a good day was 400-600 pip range? You could make money all day every day that was sweet. Now its even more about psychology, everyone pitted against the other, broker v. trader, its sucks...but trading is still the best, say what, hey lets make money! Whoo hoo!
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