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  • #2,481
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:59am Dec 4, 2012 12:59am
Quoting Crassius
A

I have earlier raised my first tranche entry to 81.60, and have just now added another two at 81.65 and 81.70, and layered orders back from there.

I have canceled these....
  • #2,482
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:52am Dec 4, 2012 1:52am
Quoting Crassius
I have canceled these....

USDJPY under 82.00 at last.... but I have soured on this trade..... I'll pass even f it enters my earlier posted buy zone...
  • #2,483
  • Edited 7:15pm Dec 4, 2012 7:07am | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting Crassius
Its possible we have a top in at 1.3075 if its an ending diagonal.

perhaps more clarity will come into the final count down into the very top of Silver's wave 3 by either exceeding 1.3075 (lower probability) or declining to give definition to a correction underway.
Exceeding 1.3075/8 most likely negates the ending diagonal interpretation posted before the start of the European session. (could still be irregular correction underway)

I can now count 4 clean (no ending diagonal) waves up, which would have us putting in the last wave 5 to end Aqua (v) and Silver 3 alt 5....

Since waves 1, 3 or 5 can extend, it is risky to try to guess the end of them... it is better to wait for waves 2, 4 or B to enter.

I believe there is an option barrier at 1.3100, but that figure has also traded recently, so I would not be surprised if there is in fact a barrier that only a lackluster defense would be taken.
  • #2,484
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:16am Dec 4, 2012 7:16am
Quoting Crassius
I have begun to build a large position trade short in AUDUSD as one of my big long term trades for 2013... shorting against 106.25 high during the post RBA decision rally.

I have been thinking about this trade for a few days. Its a currency pair that can stand as a proxy for S&P500, and the chart promises hundreds and hundreds of pips of downside (1000 + even) if my count holds up, and my expected bear market in equities takes hold in the first half of 2013...

Any Santa Claus rally, and distorted S&P500 average upside extremes caused by the...
i see your point and had a spec short into last nights RBA (a 33.3 pip loss x 3 offset some with a short Oil c'est lavie) on the outside poss of a .5 rate cut........the only hesitation about getting into almost any trade here with EOY so close is the beginning of endless monthly POMO into 2013 kicked off with the FED's 70 billion for MBS slated drop to primary dealers mid/late December.........last year LTRO was a game changer for the start of 2012.

just read your yen post.......also had layered POs for u/j .....the odd part is also soured on the trade before reading your view. coincidence i guess.

too many wild cards........the market looks all over the board....fiscal negotiations, europe, china ...FOMC dec 12...elections in Japan all in the next 3 weeks
  • #2,485
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:23pm Dec 4, 2012 1:23pm
Are we witnessing a long term trend change in the EURUSD?

Interesting post from IFR Watch:

Italian bond and EURUSD reversal reinforce each other:

 

  1. Italian 10yr yields last week broke 2 year Head and Shoulders neckline to mark EZ risk reversal
  2. EURUSD has cleared and closed on a daily basis above Trend Line from 2011 Highs, confirming long term reversal
  3. EURUSD - Italian 10 yr yield correlation has gone from + .9 to - .86 since May 2011
  4. Upper 21 week Boli at 1.3317 is back in play, and maybe a lot more

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,486
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:25pm Dec 4, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting Crassius

  1. Upper 21 week Boli at 1.3317 is back in play, and maybe a lot more


That may be true, but first we need to correct from silver degree wave 3 high we are putting in right now....

A correction back to 1.2880 area, the bottom of wave (iv) agua ( one degree smaller) would be a normal everyday sized correction given the size of silver's scale.

See chart posted here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post6259291
  • #2,487
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:48pm Dec 4, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting Crassius
I can now count 4 clean (no ending diagonal) waves up, which would have us putting in the last wave 5 to end Aqua (v) and Silver 3 alt 5....

I can now count 5 clean interior waves to meet minimum expectations for a completed wave 3 in Silver degree, wave (v) in Aqua degree, wave 5 in Red degree and wave v in fuchsia degree.


Up to the last push above 1.3100 into a high of 1.3108 above the 1.3107 high earlier, the interior structure of wave (v) aqua was not possible cleanly without using an ending diagonal... now it is....

importantly the last push is in five clean waves up in Fuchsia degree...

Its always risky to call the exact top in real time as the chart unfolds, but at least I know know that ll minimum requirements are in at 1.3108, which also exceeds slightly the 2.618 fib relationship I have been looking for the last couple days at 1.3090ish. ( see previous posts)
Attached Image
  • #2,488
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:12pm Dec 4, 2012 3:12pm
What's next for EURUSD?

If 1.3108 turns out to be the top of wave 3 in silver degree, then we need to put in a correction to draw out wave 4 of silver degree lower than 1.3108.

I'll work up a complete set of fib relationships after we confirm that 1.3108 is in fact the top of wave 3 silver.... for now, here is the big picture of where wave 4 is headed...

A couple of notes of caution... This is my preferred count, but it is also possible that 1.3108 is a wave 5 silver top, not 3, and an even deeper correction is coming. I am labeling a chart in real time, and that requires revision as the market unfolds. It is not the same thing as labeling a static chart from the past. Several alternate counts are always in my head, much the same way several moves yet to come are in the mind of a good chess player. This is my opinion at this point in time, coming into the Globex close today. As more information becomes available, my opinion may change.

Secondly, wave 4's are often messy drawn out affairs... often sideways trending down action that takes a long time to develop... this seems perfectly aligned with the calendar, as we are winding down 2012's trading year. It is not an ideal wave to short into, and I stand aside waiting to reload in line with the larger trend lower.
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  • #2,489
  • Edited 7:00pm Dec 4, 2012 6:32pm | Edited 7:00pm
Quoting Crassius
I can now count 5 clean interior waves to meet minimum expectations for a completed wave 3 in Silver degree, wave (v) in Aqua degree, wave 5 in Red degree and wave v in fuchsia degree.

On the chart below is highlighted an X wave that now needs to be revised into another 1 instead of an x, now that 1.3008 is taken out...

We are analyzing very small degrees of trend that appear to be extensions in wave 5 of aqua degree... the extensions require a serious of waves 4 and 5 in very small degrees to complete before a top is cemented into place, which can only happen once all the 4's and 5's resolve.
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  • #2,490
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:53pm Dec 4, 2012 6:53pm
New count....
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  • #2,491
  • Edited 10:29pm Dec 4, 2012 10:28pm | Edited 10:29pm
The interior wave count is the most important characteristic to look at when deciding if a wave is finished, but we do have common fib relationships between waves that serve as guidelines...

All common fib relationships in all working counts have been exceeded by price already except two:

 

  1. 1.3136 is 200% of wave 4 from the bottom of wave 4
  2. 1.3215 is 2.618 of wave 4 from the bottom of wave 4

1.3136 has the highest probability of being near the eventual top of this wave 3 silver or alt 5 silver.... These guidelines describe common relationships often found and are not rules, and therefor can be broken.... but we can't keep going up in a straight line forever...

  • #2,492
  • Edited 5:14am Dec 5, 2012 5:00am | Edited 5:14am
Quoting Crassius
New count....

Five clean interior waves now visible to complete this count...
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  • #2,493
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:09am Dec 5, 2012 5:09am
What if yet another new high is made ?.... We are running out of fib relationships having exceeded all except 1.3136 and the seemingly unreachable 1.3215... but there are always alternate counts to consider...

Here is my primary alternate....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,494
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:25am Dec 5, 2012 5:25am
When was the last time we had 7 up trading days in a row in EURUSD?

I took a quick look back manually without coding it up, and I don't see any looking back all the way into 2011's, where I found some examples of 6 days up in a row...
  • #2,495
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:57am Dec 5, 2012 5:57am
If we were to close below 1.3052, it would make an outside down day.... a strong reversal pattern to kick off our wave 4 silver degree into a test of the 2880 area, or may be even a larger correction if the alt count that shows 1.3126 high as silver wave 5 turns out to be the valid count.
  • #2,496
  • Dec 5, 2012 7:21am Dec 5, 2012 7:21am
Quoting Crassius
If we were to close below 1.3052, it would make an outside down day.... a strong reversal pattern to kick off our wave 4 silver degree into a test of the 2880 area, or may be even a larger correction if the alt count that shows 1.3126 high as silver wave 5 turns out to be the valid count.
10 pt drop on ES at 08:14, 1 minute candle....back to 1410 next 1 min
  • #2,497
  • Dec 5, 2012 7:25am Dec 5, 2012 7:25am
Quoting roro53
i see your point and had a spec short into last nights RBA (a 33.3 pip loss x 3 offset some with a short Oil c'est lavie)

1.0550 would be the best possible entry point if one did in fact want to play for a break below parity in the coming months....
  • #2,498
  • Dec 5, 2012 8:14am Dec 5, 2012 8:14am
Stuck for now on the H1 Kumo top.
Attached Image
  • #2,499
  • Edited 8:20am Dec 5, 2012 8:19am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting Crassius
Are we witnessing a long term trend change in the EURUSD?

Interesting post from IFR Watch:

Italian bond and EURUSD reversal reinforce each other:

 

  1. Italian 10yr yields last week broke 2 year Head and Shoulders neckline to mark EZ risk reversal
  2. EURUSD has cleared and closed on a daily basis above Trend Line from 2011 Highs, confirming long term reversal
  3. EURUSD - Italian 10 yr yield correlation has gone from + .9 to - .86 since May 2011
  4. Upper 21 week Boli at 1.3317 is back in play, and maybe a lot more


Quoting Crassius
That may be true, but first we need to correct from silver degree wave 3 high we are putting in right now....

A correction back to 1.2880 area, the bottom of wave (iv) agua ( one degree smaller) would be a normal everyday sized correction given the size of silver's scale.

As if on cue...
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  • #2,500
  • Edited 8:32am Dec 5, 2012 8:30am | Edited 8:32am
Fib derived target list for this wave: (Silver Wave 4 if in fact that is where we are)

1.3058

1.3023
1.3017
1.3016

1.2960

1.2948

Possible max 1.2908
possible max 1.2894


The levels in bold are the most common... of particular note wold be the cluster
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