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  • #2,461
  • Dec 2, 2012 2:56pm Dec 2, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting Crassius
Long from 2955 Hourly Kumo top..... mostly betting market over reaction to predictable politician words....
I am still looking higher.... however I have to respect the fact 3020 was the lowest upside target and has been reached, re-tested and failed...

so I am moving my stop on remaining position to 2937...
  • #2,462
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:51pm Dec 2, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting Crassius
I am still looking higher.... however I have to respect the fact 3020 was the lowest upside target and has been reached, re-tested and failed...

so I am moving my stop on remaining position to 2937...

Took a little profit here at 3020 since its the third time we have been at this lowest target from below...

Next two targets are 3068 and 3088... stop to be trailed up ASAP
  • #2,463
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:55pm Dec 2, 2012 7:55pm
Stops tripped above 3030... that's gonna bring in some break out players going long on a definitive break out of the 2011 -2012 downtrend line...
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  • #2,464
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:57pm Dec 2, 2012 7:57pm
stop trailed to 2980
  • #2,465
  • Dec 2, 2012 8:32pm Dec 2, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting Crassius
stop trailed to 2980
who knows what can happen here with year end looming, the first real FED drop of many more to come for $70 billion,and the possibility of a political deal that blows deficits sky high for 2013 and 2014..

pretty much watching at this point..........if au turns up and breaks higher then it is all in i think

the dollar index is treading water here
  • #2,466
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:47am Dec 3, 2012 12:47am
Looking for a chance to get long USDJPY again by layering buy limit orders into the buy zone box on the attached chart... The JPY short play is so strong I am not willing to try to go counter-trend and ride wave C into the buy zone....

Better to be patient and wait for price to come to me and get back on board with the major trend....
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  • #2,467
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:57am Dec 3, 2012 12:57am
Quoting Crassius
Looking for a chance to get long USDJPY again by layering buy limit orders into the buy zone box on the attached chart... The JPY short play is so strong I am not willing to try to go counter-trend and ride wave C into the buy zone....

Better to be patient and wait for price to come to me and get back on board with the major trend....
Looking at the order book as we approach 1 hour before European open and I see solid bids (means very good size) at 81.50.... The box on the chart I just posted may be a bit too conservative. We know that an ABC correction often ends somewhere in the price territory of wave 4 of one lesser degree, often testing the bottom of that wave 4....

I drew the box to take in most of the price area of wave 4 on the chart with the top box boundry at 81.45....

wave 4's actual top is 81.60

Aggressive traders may enter some orders between 81.60 and 81.45 given the current order book... usually wave C will test the bottom of wave 4, which is a considerable distance from 81.60, but the stronger the uptrend, the shallower the pullback....

Given the order book, I'm raising my first few orders up and beginning my layering at 81.60...
  • #2,468
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:37am Dec 3, 2012 3:37am
Quoting Crassius
Took a little profit here at 3020 since its the third time we have been at this lowest target from below...

Next two targets are 3068 and 3088... stop to be trailed up ASAP

Just took a little more profit at 3048...

there may be some Optionality that is helping turn us back from 3050 repeatedly....

Interior wave structure still points higher....

Keeping the 3068 target and last bit off adjusted to 3078 now.... subject to revision as the interior waves develop.
  • #2,469
  • Edited 7:05am Dec 3, 2012 6:54am | Edited 7:05am
1.3068 target reached and profit booked...

almost flat now... I have just a very small bit left...

Target on last bit raised to 3087...

Stop loss raised to 13018
  • #2,470
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:29am Dec 3, 2012 7:29am
Bullish Count.... Bolli's capping correction due very soon....
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  • #2,471
  • Edited 7:40am Dec 3, 2012 7:33am | Edited 7:40am
Even more Bullish count....

I never liked the interior count that puts wave 3 silver at 3008....

Counting a live unfolding chart is very different kettle of fish than counting a static finished chart....

Here's an even more bullish count that puts 3008 as only the top of wave (iii) aqua...


2880 only wave (iv) aqua ( not wave 4 silver)..... which still leaves a larger pull back in the cards to a wave 4 silver bottom, followed by yet more upside to a wave 5 silver top....

This makes the top of wave 3 silver due at 1.3090ish, 2.618 times as long as wave 1 silver, a common fib relationship... and why I moved my last take profit to 1.3087.
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  • #2,472
  • Edited 7:44am Dec 3, 2012 7:43am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting Crassius
Even more Bullish count....

This makes the top of wave 3 silver due at 1.3090ish, 2.618 times as long as wave 1 silver, a common fib relationship... and why I moved my last take profit to 1.3087.

We have achieved 3075 already... and that is close enough to satisfy the fib relationship.... but I've booked so much profit along the way, what the hell.... might as well swing for the fences with the little I have left, or let the market take me out by hitting my stop loss...

then reload later lower...
  • #2,473
  • Dec 3, 2012 9:59am Dec 3, 2012 9:59am
Looking at the EURUSD order book there is a lot of supply in the 3080/85 area... the normal before the figure offers....

Lowering my take profit on last bit to 3078...
  • #2,474
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:14am Dec 3, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Crassius
Looking at the EURUSD order book there is a lot of supply in the 3080/85 area... the normal before the figure offers....

Lowering my take profit on last bit to 3078...

Just closed it at 3072.... just not gonna get it I guess... I gave it plenty of time.... not worth leaving on the risk for a few more pips after giving it room to run.... we will needed to hit during this European close... not willing to hold it over night for a few pips...
  • #2,475
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:16am Dec 3, 2012 10:16am
Now flat and out of the m EURUSD market.....

Will watch things unfold for a while, but may very well have just made my last EURUSD trade of 2012....

Leaving the USDJPY entry orders in place.....
  • #2,476
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:49pm Dec 3, 2012 12:49pm
Things get tricky when we look at waves on a really small scale, but taken with that grain of salt....
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  • #2,477
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:52pm Dec 3, 2012 12:52pm
Quoting Crassius
Things get tricky when we look at waves on a really small scale, but taken with that grain of salt....
I would expect support at 3030 to hold if in fact one more push higher needed to complete sequence before larger scale pull back unfolds...
  • #2,478
  • Dec 3, 2012 6:31pm Dec 3, 2012 6:31pm
Quoting Crassius
Looking for a chance to get long USDJPY again by layering buy limit orders into the buy zone box on the attached chart... The JPY short play is so strong I am not willing to try to go counter-trend and ride wave C into the buy zone....

Better to be patient and wait for price to come to me and get back on board with the major trend....

As I watch the price actio in USDJPY unfold, it looks like the correction is unfolding as a flat not a zig-zag.

This would be in keeping with strong sentiment in the market seen during a widely expected trend..... as opposed to a zig - zag correction, the B wave of a flat is so strong it nearly retraces all of the A wave, and then the C wave ends only slightly below the A wave, instead of significantly below it. The trend's strength causes these aspects.

I have earlier raised my first tranche entry to 81.60, and have just now added another two at 81.65 and 81.70, and layered orders back from there. This would raise my basis if I do get filled, and the correction could urn out not to be flat at all.... but I have to trade what I see. At this time keeping orders closer to the ideal support of 81.15 may be so far away, I would never get filled at all.
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  • #2,479
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:42am Dec 4, 2012 12:42am
Quoting Crassius
Things get tricky when we look at waves on a really small scale, but taken with that grain of salt....

12 hours have elapsed since this post EURUSD trades 1.3057... Its possible we have a top in at 1.3075 if its an ending diagonal. With the overlapping price action,wedge shape, divergence amid falling momentum, and the fact that we exceeded the 2.0 standard deviation bands yesterday, the case grows stronger and stronger that 1.3075 will be a 5th of 5th of 3rd (Silver) top, and lead to a 4th wave decline in Silver degree...

In a 24 hour market its sometimes hard at these very small wave degrees to judge, and with the upcoming higher volatility of the European open, perhaps more clarity will come into the final count down into the very top of Silver's wave 3 by either exceeding 1.3075 (lower probability) or declining to give definition to a correction underway.

An alternate count would have wave 3 silver as wave 5 silver.... I need more information to make that call as not enough chart has rolled by yet in real time to say definitively....
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  • #2,480
  • Dec 4, 2012 12:51am Dec 4, 2012 12:51am
I have begun to build a large position trade short in AUDUSD as one of my big long term trades for 2013... shorting against 106.25 high during the post RBA decision rally.

I have been thinking about this trade for a few days. Its a currency pair that can stand as a proxy for S&P500, and the chart promises hundreds and hundreds of pips of downside (1000 + even) if my count holds up, and my expected bear market in equities takes hold in the first half of 2013...

Any Santa Claus rally, and distorted S&P500 average upside extremes caused by the one time special dividends OUR DEAR LEADER's higher taxes on dividends is causing at present will only serve to fill up my position if AUDUSD moves higher in sympathy with its highly correlated S&P500 index.
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