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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #62,261
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:12pm Dec 4, 2012 1:12pm
Well in that case my cycle began at 1.49
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #62,262
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:24pm Dec 4, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting chodd22
PT, that weekly trendline seems to have been breached...how much stock you giving it? It a fake or you feeling a true break?
We'll have to wait and see if it holds as support when PA comes back to test it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,263
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:24pm Dec 4, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Well in that case my cycle began at 1.49
Atta boy
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,264
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:48pm Dec 4, 2012 1:48pm
serious...very serious...by serious people ... what have i to do?...really in panic. I keep my short by 1.2995 or close, lost a lot, and go long to resume the lost?
  • #62,265
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:58pm Dec 4, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting prosiak
serious...very serious...by serious people ... what have i to do?...really in panic. I keep my short by 1.2995 or close, lost a lot, and go long to resume the lost?
Deep in your mind u've already took your losses, your hope to cut them is very thing
I did not continue to take another chances if i were in your shoes, because IMO EU may test new highs and burn your deposit
If you do not have strategy try to stand aside, of if u are in panic it's better to take a brake, may be to lock your position for a while, at least till you find the new strategy or feel the market
All is up to you, man

Edition
MM is the basic point at FX
  • #62,266
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:04pm Dec 4, 2012 2:04pm
yes, i understand this...I agree. But i was quite sure than a little downroll was in wait...but sunday nothing ( little and I didn't have time to close ).Monday tragedia, tuesday tragedia and know what?
I close and follow the "trend"?...and if tomorrow will be back in a little down?
Many times I saw people so sure than something will happen...and then nothing. A day after, it was!

So, know question is...how many people think it'll go up or down?
I can accept to lose a little but when market is so much "manipulated" I really don't know what's a strategy, a mind, itp itp...



Quoting magicgate
Deep in your mind u've already took your losses, your hope to cut them is very thing
I did not continue to take another chances if i were in your shoes, because IMO EU may test new highs and burn your deposit
If you do not have strategy try to stand aside, of if u are in panic it's better to take a brake, may be lock your position for a while, at least till you find the new strategy or feel the market
All is up to you, man

Edition
MM is the basic point at FX
  • #62,267
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:05pm Dec 4, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting prosiak
serious...very serious...by serious people ... what have i to do?...really in panic. I keep my short by 1.2995 or close, lost a lot, and go long to resume the lost?
It's hard to say as I don't know anything about your strategy, money management, or risk appetite. However, if you are already in panic mode I would cut my losses and don't make any new trades (long or short) until you see a clear direction.

PT has pointed out that December will be a volatile month so it may not be wise to keep your positions opened, however, we are definitely at a critical level for the EUR/USD.

Triple top could be a nice sell area but it is hard to say, there has been quite a bit of momentum recently for the EUR. Looking at EUR/AUD and its recent bullish activity, it is telling me that we are more or less in "Risk-Off" mode so market could be ready to sell off fairly soon. Just my observation...

**At this point in time there is probably more risk to the upside so if you can keep your short positions opened without getting a margin call that would be safer then going long. December 12 FED meeting could bring volatility towards the upside though so if we get some sort of sell off before then might be smart to close short positions and be flat until dust has settled.
  • #62,268
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:05pm Dec 4, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting Ken A
YEN is getting stronger. WTH is going on? Could this be related to Japan limiting the imports from Germany two days ago as currency balancing?
ken, i think youre reading too far into it. there might be some attributes related to algos, political chop or fund flow but its largely due for a retrace anyway
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,269
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:08pm Dec 4, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting prosiak
serious...very serious...by serious people ... what have i to do?...really in panic. I keep my short by 1.2995 or close, lost a lot, and go long to resume the lost?
consider the reasons why you took the trade. do you still stand by that conviction? do you need the margin? if so, take half of the position off, ride it out and re-enter when you get another short indicator. if not, suck it up and take the loss. good luck

ps: the bull moves have been a slow grind higher. when the market finally sells off for whatever reason, it will move FAST.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,270
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:10pm Dec 4, 2012 2:10pm
We are indeed in Risk-Off mode. Might want to consider how E/U will react in Risk-On.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354639335

  • #62,271
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:13pm Dec 4, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting Ken A
We are indeed in Risk-Off mode. Might want to consider how E/U will react in Risk-On.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354639335

i disagree. today is just flat. the only reason nasdaq is down is because apple is down $10 there are no drivers that the market is willing to embrace in either direction. euro simply grinds higher. other than gold & silver, the commodities showing red are not related to risk in any way
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,272
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:15pm Dec 4, 2012 2:15pm
this's the problem. I saw a short in sunday night,after some good pips, it'll jump in long. I know, was better to close and go in long, but It's so easy see long when you see day after or you see a trend. So, what? I was in waiting, because at 1,3070-1,3090 was a triple triangle and waiting a "long" short like someone said too.
I see know than all change idea, will be break 1.35 soon. So, if i close and go long, it'll go in 1.35 and it's ok...but if it'll really go down?

How can we be in front manipulated? Euro problems, crisis...and all go up. What changed in last 7 days?...also a downgrade was in this last days and price up? not sense.
For this i'm in "panic"...because i see a ghost hand than can change what can be "normal"!


Quoting redteamgo
consider the reasons why you took the trade. do you still stand by that conviction? do you need the margin? if so, take half of the position off, ride it out and re-enter when you get another short indicator. if not, suck it up and take the loss. good luck

ps: the bull moves have been a slow grind higher. when the market finally sells off for whatever reason, it will move FAST.
  • #62,273
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:30pm Dec 4, 2012 2:30pm
[quote=prosiak;6262058]this's the problem. I saw a short in sunday night,after some good pips, it'll jump in long. I know, was better to close and go in long, but It's so easy see long when you see day after or you see a trend. So, what? I was in waiting, because at 1,3070-1,3090 was a triple triangle and waiting a "long" short like someone said too.
I see know than all change idea, will be break 1.35 soon. So, if i close and go long, it'll go in 1.35 and it's ok...but if it'll really go down?

How can we be in front manipulated? Euro problems, crisis...and all go up. What changed in last 7 days?...also a downgrade was in this last days and price up? not sense.
For this i'm in "panic"...because i see a ghost hand than can change what can be "normal"!


hi there YOU changed in last 7 days and ur equity changed in last 7days and dont u think thats enuff for a change.asking for help without giving some detail is consider not appropriate.
1,what is your position size and how much leverage ur using?
2.what was ur plan and what point u thought u going to be wrong?
3.how much ur ready to loose now[tell us in %term]?
4.do u have any funds left to avg down?.
5.what do u think of the market and how much trust u have in urself that u can bail out.?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #62,274
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:32pm Dec 4, 2012 2:32pm
Monthly chart and you will love this...

http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...png?1354619909
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.png Size: 34 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #62,275
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:33pm Dec 4, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting prosiak
How can we be in front manipulated? Euro problems, crisis...and all go up. What changed in last 7 days?...also a downgrade was in this last days and price up? not sense.
For this i'm in "panic"...because i see a ghost hand than can change what can be "normal"!
beyond managing your position as I previously stated, i will say that we are in dangerous territory. yes, the euro SHOULD go down, but will it? a breakout from here could easily see a 3 to 5 cent move.

ill give you an nugget from my personal experience. i had an aussie short just under parity parity when i was first learning how to trade the front contracts. i was willing to let it to move up a cent or so. well, it didnt stop and before you know it, i was looking at a draw down of several thousand USD from mismanaging the position. the reasons i took the trade became invalid and yet i hung on "another day." there is a lesson there. when i said that you should examine your reasons for going short, you should do that. do those reasons still seem valid?
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #62,276
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:34pm Dec 4, 2012 2:34pm
[quote=drzakir123;6262091]
Quoting prosiak
this's the problem. I saw a short in sunday night,after some good pips, it'll jump in long. I know, was better to close and go in long, but It's so easy see long when you see day after or you see a trend. So, what? I was in waiting, because at 1,3070-1,3090 was a triple triangle and waiting a "long" short like someone said too.
I see know than all change idea, will be break 1.35 soon. So, if i close and go long, it'll go in 1.35 and it's ok...but if it'll really go down?

How can we be in front manipulated? Euro problems,...
6. What size of deposit you are still ready to bet

Prosiak:
You need some rest, or you may blow your brain up this way, pls be careful
  • #62,277
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:36pm Dec 4, 2012 2:36pm
Quoting drzakir123
hi there YOU changed in last 7 days and ur equity changed in last 7days and dont u think thats enuff for a change.asking for help without giving some detail is consider not appropriate.
1,what is your position size and how much leverage ur using?
2.what was ur plan and what point u thought u going to be wrong?
3.how much ur ready to loose now[tell us in %term]?
4.do u have any funds left to avg down?.
5.what do u think of the market and how much trust u have in urself that u can bail out.?
1. I'm short by 1.2995 and i use 1:50.
2. Moj plan was short until + 30-40pips.
3. I can lose max 30 pips ( +- 1.3030 )
5. I think market is full...like when a boy see a nice girl...all perfet, all good but then the first problem. I see in the market in these last days, not so much with real. Overestimated. I think it must to come back if then all think a long LONG. I don't think it'll start by sunday and close at 1.32/1.35 only in LONG. I believe in short...for that i'm in these situations.
  • #62,278
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:38pm Dec 4, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Monthly chart and you will love this...

http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...png?1354619909
  • #62,279
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:39pm Dec 4, 2012 2:39pm
[quote=magicgate;6262103]
Quoting drzakir123

6. What size of deposit you are still ready to bet

Prosiak:
You need some rest, or you may blow your brain up this way, pls be careful
not so much...30pips yet?...50?...

I thought the same like Luis Carlos...but with other kind of chart ( more or less like Piptrader! ). ( less value EUR/USD...+- 1.2980 )
  • #62,280
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:42pm Dec 4, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Monthly chart and you will love this...

http://charts.stocktwits.com/product...png?1354619909
i will counter that analysis with my own chart, which I have slaved over for weeks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 288 KB
Any prices quoted are futures
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