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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #62,161
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:02am Dec 4, 2012 4:02am
Quoting sisse
Your argument is not very clear. What deficits? public, fiscal? trade? current account? balance of payment? ... You said that you have a master in economics but not sure if you have been trading for long...if not, my 2 cents is that you need to see the Macro fundamentals with a whole different approach if you want to translate FA factors into trading....otherwise you may get stuck as a market analyst and not a trader ....

sisse
I can't develop more as i'm at work, but to simplify (and yes there are some exceptions) I can answer you : almost all

edit : and I don't speak about unemployment...
  • #62,162
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:05am Dec 4, 2012 4:05am
Quoting wingou
That's my problem, as I have a Master in economics, i can't forget the fundamentals
And my shorts are all in red

mine too
  • #62,163
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:07am Dec 4, 2012 4:07am
Quoting lumesh
mine too
In fact that's not totaly true, I added one sh @1.3076, but it doesn't compensate the other
  • #62,164
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:09am Dec 4, 2012 4:09am
Quoting wingou
I can't develop more as i'm at work, but to simplify (and yes there are some exceptions) I can answer you : almost all
lol... don't worry just post when you are out of work and we can have a chat later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #62,165
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:10am Dec 4, 2012 4:10am
Quoting wingou
In fact that's not totaly true, I added one sh @1.3076, but it doesn't compensate the other

it's a start
  • #62,166
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:28am Dec 4, 2012 4:28am
eur and gbp price action expeptionally erratic...desperate to push higher...


Matter of time to break 1.3045 and 1.6085 on cable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #62,167
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:33am Dec 4, 2012 4:33am
Lumesh, Wingou, 100PipsADay and Ken A...

The proof is in the pudding and the next major move in the markets should reveal itself before the end of this month.

As I mentioned yesterday we have five CB policy decisions, the most significant being the ECB this week and the FOMC next week. On top of that we have the Greek Debt Buy-Back program and the US Fiscal Cliff. All these events are being front run just like QE3 and OMT were front run in September.

An excellent short to mid-term trader would obviously join the band wagon in front running these events, but I cannot classify myself as one of them. I guess I am more of an investor than a trader because my positions run for weeks and months and in some cases an entire year or more.

My point is that the recent risk rallies are not based on solid fundamentals, but rather on high speculation... more like gambling... and that is certainly not my style. With the sound money and risk management strategies I use, I can hold an underwater position for several months without breaking a single bead of sweat, because in the end it is the macro-economic fundamentals that win every time... not the CB market interventions or the political verbal diarrhea.

So, when I say I am bearish the EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and JPY against the USD, I do not intend to imply that these currency pairs are going to under-perform today or tomorrow, but rather in the mid to long term, and there is very good reason behind it all.

Sisse, I guess by your definition, I am more of an analyst than a trader

Anyway, best of luck with your trades. It's gonna get a bit volatile starting tomorrow so give your stops some breathing room and leverage yourself accordingly no matter which way you're trading.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,168
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:41am Dec 4, 2012 4:41am
Question:

How to tell a true bear from werewolf?


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354530414

  • #62,169
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:42am Dec 4, 2012 4:42am
ECB hits brakes on start of direct supervision, says policing all banks that have recieved EFSF/ESM money from Jan. logistically impossible

Schaeuble says ECB independence can't cover bank supervision

EU sources: A deal on banking supervision is unlikely today, with 3 big challenges to overcome http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...vision-juncker
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,170
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:44am Dec 4, 2012 4:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]

Sisse, I guess by your definition, I am more of an analyst than a trader
given your advanced technical approach coupled with patience, you're still a trader rather than an analyst.
  • #62,171
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:44am Dec 4, 2012 4:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Lumesh, Wingou, 100PipsADay and Ken A...

The proof is in the pudding and the next major move in the markets should reveal itself before the end of this month.

As I mentioned yesterday we have five CB policy decisions, the most significant being the ECB this week and the FOMC next week. On top of that we have the Greek Debt Buy-Back program and the US Fiscal Cliff. All these events are being front run just like QE3 and OMT were front run in September.

An excellent short to mid-term trader would obviously join the band wagon...
No contest here. It has to come down after hitting certain highs.
  • #62,172
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:50am Dec 4, 2012 4:50am
Quoting lumesh
given your advanced technical approach coupled with patience, you're still a trader rather than an analyst.
You mean this?

E/U Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w1.gif Size: 25 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,173
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:53am Dec 4, 2012 4:53am
Quoting Ken A
No contest here. It has to come down after hitting certain highs.
Yep...

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,174
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:53am Dec 4, 2012 4:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
You mean this?

E/U Weekly:
Attachment
More like this if I remember correctly.

Attached Image

  • #62,175
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:55am Dec 4, 2012 4:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
ECB hits brakes on start of direct supervision, says policing all banks that have recieved EFSF/ESM money from Jan. logistically impossible

Schaeuble says ECB independence can't cover bank supervision

EU sources: A deal on banking supervision is unlikely today, with 3 big challenges to overcome http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...vision-juncker

As far as fundamentals go, look at todays U.K. PMI, the comments from Osborne and the likes today and the past days...and look at GBP.
  • #62,176
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:55am Dec 4, 2012 4:55am
Quoting Ken A
More like this if I remember correctly.

Attachment



USDEUR ?

why not
  • #62,177
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:56am Dec 4, 2012 4:56am
actually, the market waits for my 1000 posts
  • #62,178
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:58am Dec 4, 2012 4:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Lumesh, Wingou, 100PipsADay and Ken A...

The proof is in the pudding and the next major move in the markets should reveal itself before the end of this month.

As I mentioned yesterday we have five CB policy decisions, the most significant being the ECB this week and the FOMC next week. On top of that we have the Greek Debt Buy-Back program and the US Fiscal Cliff. All these events are being front run just like QE3 and OMT were front run in September.

An excellent short to mid-term trader would obviously join the band wagon...
I agree that this month should be pretty volatile. Hopefully we'll finally break out of the ranges we've been in recently!
  • #62,179
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:00am Dec 4, 2012 5:00am
Quoting 100PipsADay
I agree that this month should be pretty volatile. Hopefully we'll finally break out of the ranges we've been in recently!
I pray for a downside break
  • #62,180
  • Dec 4, 2012 5:02am Dec 4, 2012 5:02am
Quoting wingou
I pray for a downside break
Some risk off would definitely be good for my EUR/AUD longs...

I've also got AUD/JPY longs to "hedge" against the E/A longs. However, I see both of these trades being solid mid to long term plays.

All in all, I guess I'm long at the moment... Ken, what about you? LOL
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