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  • #726,741
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:34pm Dec 3, 2012 7:34pm
here is a little B/S analysis that can be wrong......

1.3063 is todays open if you count the open at Tokyo

what we do know for 99.28% certainty is that price will close above or below open. 3390 days of trading statistics were taken for this assumption.

US equity markets closed bearish and RBA believes that AUD is overweight.... today's rate is expected to be cut by .25% to 3%. The only pairs that were bullish last trading session were the GBP and Euro.

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...01632965492500

the environment for today appears to be bearish from the net outflow of cash....... fiscal cliff risk still not resolved, being December managers are supposed to close books. So all in all it points to a downward bias on all risk currencies and an upward appreciation on USD.

anything above open I would take it as an opportunity to short, and take profit target will be 1.30. on the downside that stands at minus one standard deviations from open.
if I was to be wrong then 1.3120 would be the bullish target.

so i go on record as to say that 1.30 t/p (flexible t/p as 34% probability of closing within this target)


but since I cannot see the future nor the orderflow.... nor do I poses information about future orders.....I can be dead wrong.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #726,742
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:38pm Dec 3, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting the redlion
here is a little B/S analysis that can be wrong......

but since I cannot see the future nor the orderflow.... nor do I poses information about future orders.....I can be dead wrong.


Why don't you just say: it goes up or down.

A lot less work and it's the same message.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #726,743
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:38pm Dec 3, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting KillerWhale


Why don't you just say: it goes up or down.

A lot less work and it's the same message.
Of course it goes down, unless it goes up
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #726,744
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:39pm Dec 3, 2012 7:39pm
I agree, was thinking the same thing indices and commodity currencies are diverging today from GBP and EUR, somethings got to give.


Quoting the redlion
here is a little B/S analysis that can be wrong......

1.3063 is todays open if you count the open at Tokyo

what we do know for 99.28% certainty is that price will close above or below open. 3390 days of trading statistics were taken for this assumption.

US equity markets closed bearish and RBA believes that AUD is overweight.... today's rate is expected to be cut by .25% to 3%. The only pairs that were bullish last trading session were the GBP and Euro.

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...01632965492500

the...
  • #726,745
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:42pm Dec 3, 2012 7:42pm
A lot of wackos out there, telling ya..

BTW, from what I have atm, shit should be going up on daily.. I don't think there will be any down before at least 3104. Then we'll see wtf happens..
  • #726,746
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:43pm Dec 3, 2012 7:43pm
This my Aussie 1hr chart, have post numerous times, now am feeling like a dick, fuk H&S is not playing ball, and stuck in ping pong mode
but it is still valid, but another ping pong and will dump her, she presntly is struggle to break resist, but making new lows, so will perservere little longer, maybe rba will rocket or brick, dont really care this pattern has pissed me off

happy pip hunting aussie traders, dont listeen me everytme I post anything pa goes other way, watching 31 for todays high until asian levels print 2hr 15 min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie 1hr 4 12 2012.jpg Size: 101 KB
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #726,747
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
This my Aussie 1hr chart, have post numerous times, now am feeling like a dick, fuk H&S is not playing ball, and stuck in ping pong mode
but it is still valid, but another ping pong and will dump her, she presntly is struggle to break resist, but making new lows, so will perservere little longer, maybe rba will rocket or brick, dont really care this pattern has pissed me off

happy pip hunting aussie traders, dont listeen me everytme I post anything pa goes other way, watching 31 for todays high until asian levels print 2hr 15 min...
i am seeing inv.h&s on your chart (may be 2x solder on one side)
Mohan
  • #726,748
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm
Id agree if it wasnt for the indices looking quite bearish at the moment. 1.3070 area has been resitance in the past so it's feasable we could come down a bit from here

Quoting attila
A lot of wackos out there, telling ya..

BTW, from what I have atm, shit should be going up on daily.. I don't think there will be any down before at least 3104. Then we'll see wtf happens..
  • #726,749
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm Dec 3, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting valent1ne
I'd be glad to give inside info to the public as long as the public would at last open a financial calendar and not expect anything served on the table. But as you can probably see, the public is meant to be squeezed. You have the reasons written on this reply.
Attached Image


More on topic, waiting for price to actually do something...has been a dead pulse for the last 8 hours...
  • #726,750
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:57pm Dec 3, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting the redlion
here is a little B/S analysis that can be wrong......

1.3063 is todays open if you count the open at Tokyo

what we do know for 99.28% certainty is that price will close above or below open. 3390 days of trading statistics were taken for this assumption.

US equity markets closed bearish and RBA believes that AUD is overweight.... today's rate is expected to be cut by .25% to 3%. The only pairs that were bullish last trading session were the GBP and Euro.

http://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...01632965492500

the...

here is a strategy

using a 10,000 unit position = mini lot

short the euro with 1 mini lot, and buy 1 mini lot of the yen
time frame for stats= last 6 months

sigma(yen)/sigma(euro)= .7791 that means that euro volatility is greater than yen by 1- .7791
this leaves you exposed to the euro short position more than the yen long position

sqrt(w^2*var(yen.returns)+w^2*var(uro.returns)+2*(w*w*sd(yen.returns)*sd(uro.returns)*cor(-uro.returns,yen.returns))) we calculate the standard deviation of both positions this variable I will call y

the standard deviation of this position y is .20%
y*(position size"in our case 10,000"* euro exchange rate + position size* 1/ exchange rate of yen)= dollar amount equivalent of position

for the mini lot your risk is 27.08 dollars for this initial short biased position...... and as you continue to gain on the downside you can cut your yen position to leave you fully exposed to the short..... or exit yen at favorable retracement.

keep in mind for both position the roll over will be in your favor.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #726,751
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:01pm Dec 3, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Of course it goes down, unless it goes up
I doubt, ...................................it won't go up if it doesn't go down.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #726,752
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:04pm Dec 3, 2012 8:04pm
Quoting mohan76
i am seeing inv.h&s on your chart (may be 2x solder on one side)
yep could be why her ping pong they battle each other, but invert is below resist and rising tl, bro if her go up I will be clipped and her down I will be happy, she still below todays open zone top 0431, present sub resist 0438 just want her to move one way or the other

This my Swissy Chart Daily & !hr are just simple cause trade charts are bloody mess

Dailly hardly change from previous post, she another invert H&S waiting to see if play out, again she also getting squeezed,
Daily show invert H&S with a back up megaphone, so her could drop to monthly 9174, which if held could be megaphone, this of course would see eu pop, zoomed into 1hr bulls need take falling tl,

I have commit to both trades, in waiting mode
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Swissy daily 4 12 2012.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Swissy 1hr 4 12 2012.jpg Size: 85 KB
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  • #726,753
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:07pm Dec 3, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting PipLand
Id agree if it wasnt for the indices looking quite bearish at the moment. 1.3070 area has been resitance in the past so it's feasable we could come down a bit from here
right. that was a daily level. if it misses it, it's going to drop from here and not look back any time soon. if it reaches it then more up is possible. that could also be a turn as well.. i'm just watching the pa at the levels and how they are reached/failed..
  • #726,754
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:11pm Dec 3, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting attila
right. that was a daily level. if it misses it, it's going to drop from here and not look back any time soon. if it reaches it then more up is possible. that could also be a turn as well.. i'm just watching the pa at the levels and how they are reached/failed..
It will retest 1.3070 level during euro peon session, before deciding whether to go up or drop..
Intraday only.
  • #726,755
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:15pm Dec 3, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
seek?
what?
  • #726,756
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:17pm Dec 3, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting navk
It will retest 1.3070 level during euro peon session, before deciding whether to go up or drop..
I like to think in more flexible terms.. an important level on daily is 3007. It can check that out, but if it stays above it, that'll keep 3104 open.. nice 100 pips move.

As a matter of fact I'll buy everything below here (3046) and sell everything above it. That's for intraday purposes..
  • #726,757
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:17pm Dec 3, 2012 8:17pm
Quoting the redlion
here is a strategy

using a 10,000 unit position = mini lot

short the euro with 1 mini lot, and buy 1 mini lot of the yen
time frame for stats= last 6 months

sigma(yen)/sigma(euro)= .7791 that means that euro volatility is greater than yen by 1- .7791
this leaves you exposed to the euro short position more than the yen long position

sqrt(w^2*var(yen.returns)+w^2*var(uro.returns)+2*(w*w*sd(yen.returns)*sd(uro.returns)*cor(-uro.returns,yen.returns))) we calculate the standard deviation of both positions this variable I will call y

the...

Wat happens to your little experiment if yen has a reverse 2008?
  • #726,758
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:21pm Dec 3, 2012 8:21pm
Quoting sidhujag
Wat happens to your little experiment if yen has a reverse 2008?

that would be a black swan which mathematics assuming CETERIS PARIBUS would be a huge loss......that is the risk we take everyday......assuming that low probability event does not occur then .....it is worthwhile to consider an actual hedge to the anchor position on your swing trade don't you think?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #726,759
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:22pm Dec 3, 2012 8:22pm
Quoting attila
I like to think in more flexible terms.. an important level on daily is 3007. It can check that out, but if it stays above it, that'll keep 3104 open.. nice 100 pips move.

As a matter of fact I'll buy everything below here (3046) and sell everything above it. That's for intraday purposes..
3030 should support the drop according to my chart.

If 3030 breaks then we can expect a deeper retracement.
Intraday only.
  • #726,760
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:23pm Dec 3, 2012 8:23pm
hedging against that heavy tail event by reducing the exposure to the yen would be silly....as it would incur a bigger transaction cost and a bigger effective position in the market.

don't like risk? don take a position that is ,100% neutral= net 0 with no transaction costs
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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