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  • #726,661
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:22pm Dec 3, 2012 12:22pm
Do any fundamentalists here have an idea what will happen with the EUR/USD if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff? Seems to me, some of the time when there's negative U.S. news, sometimes the dollar goes down, sometimes it goes up. Like rumors of more QE makes Euro go up then stock markets panic then Euro goes down.
  • #726,662
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting Kanzler
A stop should be placed where you know your setup is invalid. If you wait until it gets there the only thing that's going to happen is all rational thought goes out the window and your emotions take over. Stops serve you well if you use them right.

I use emergency stops only just in case all my backups go, we get a nuke on London and we start sinking here.
The great majority are rarely capable of thinking independently.
  • #726,663
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting John Gray
Thoughts? [Gravy train doesn't last forever]

retracement back to at least 1.25 by Xmas. Followed by bullish Jan/Feb taking us to higher levels
Still think it's going to hit 1.3080 before it has a chance to turn around, if not just to pick up momentum.
  • #726,664
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm Dec 3, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting Kanzler
A stop should be placed where you know your setup is invalid. If you wait until it gets there the only thing that's going to happen is all rational thought goes out the window and your emotions take over. Stops serve you well if you use them right.
Yeah stop used to "stop" bad trades getting worse, basically it.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #726,665
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:24pm Dec 3, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting fxnav
I am still selling each and every rally on the 5 here at my number from this morning, hourly and H2/4 getting better and better.

Hour and a half of watching paint dry, it did make me money but we are not going anywhere fast here, trailing the stops, see where we end up.

Have a wonderful evening.
The great majority are rarely capable of thinking independently.
  • #726,666
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:26pm Dec 3, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting Kanzler
Still think it's going to hit 1.3080 before it has a chance to turn around, if not just to pick up momentum.
Yeah 1.3080 isn't too far away, rejected at 1.307, second triangle hasn't established top yet, just showing what could happen if it does..
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #726,667
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:26pm Dec 3, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting John Gray
Yeah stop used to "stop" bad trades getting worse, basically it.
Completely agree.

Quoting fxnav
I use emergency stops only just in case all my backups go, we get a nuke on London and we start sinking here.
If you're using an emergency stop at least you still have some sort of stop. Way better than not using one at all, because black swan events do happen and people can have a good chunk of their accounts wiped clean if they don't have some preventative measure in place. I just hate the attitude that sometimes gets tossed around that it's acceptable not to have some sort of hard risk management in place, that's awful advice.
  • #726,668
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:27pm Dec 3, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting MaxDoom
yep and that wouldn't be good for visitor numbers...

and that wouldn't be good for advertising rates

guess we are stuck with it

you could still implement the reverse iggy just to make the miscreants log in and out every time they want to goof on someone. that wouldn't hurt traffic.
  • #726,669
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:28pm Dec 3, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Kanzler

If you're using an emergency stop at least you still have some sort of stop. Way better than not using one at all, because black swan events do happen and people can have a good chunk of their accounts wiped clean if they don't have some preventative measure in place. I just hate the attitude that sometimes gets tossed around that it's acceptable not to have some sort of hard risk management in place, that's awful advice.

They are miles away and not really part of my risk management, not going to advertise where my stops are. My risk stops are mental only.
The great majority are rarely capable of thinking independently.
  • #726,670
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:29pm Dec 3, 2012 12:29pm
There is still momentum, and it will push up high again. Buy at dips is the Call.
USD Index will fall further.
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #726,671
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:30pm Dec 3, 2012 12:30pm
Quoting clambill
Do any fundamentalists here have an idea what will happen with the EUR/USD if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff? Seems to me, some of the time when there's negative U.S. news, sometimes the dollar goes down, sometimes it goes up. Like rumors of more QE makes Euro go up then stock markets panic then Euro goes down.

1.18 but they are not going to let it go that far, they will interfere way before that as it will mean a serious drop on the S&P/DOW also and they can't have that as that would mean admitting defeat in QE as it will negate all 3 plus the MBS and twist programs and the FED is not going to admit defeat.
The great majority are rarely capable of thinking independently.
  • #726,672
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:32pm Dec 3, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting xandi
there was no many bulls here yesterday afternoon, you know it...
interesting bullish action today, i must say though...
  • #726,673
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:35pm Dec 3, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting aviz12
There is still momentum, and it will push up high again. Buy at dips is the Call.
USD Index will fall further.
I totally understand what you mean, and more then likely you are right.

Market is in uptrend therefore more likely to profit from long position.

But we are entering reversal zone, see pic.

Just a thought..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Reversal.jpg Size: 220 KB
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #726,674
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:36pm Dec 3, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting fxnav
1.18 but they are not going to let it go that far, they will interfere way before that as it will mean a serious drop on the S&P/DOW also and they can't have that as that would mean admitting defeat in QE as it will negate all 3 plus the MBS and twist programs and the FED is not going to admit defeat.
In other words, they don't have a stop loss

edit: FED cannot accept they have done wrong instead continue adding to their 'position'
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #726,675
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:37pm Dec 3, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting clambill
Do any fundamentalists here have an idea what will happen with the EUR/USD if the U.S. goes over the fiscal cliff? Seems to me, some of the time when there's negative U.S. news, sometimes the dollar goes down, sometimes it goes up. Like rumors of more QE makes Euro go up then stock markets panic then Euro goes down.
If they go over the cliff , then a nice Stock market profit taking , will take place and Euro will dip - maybe 100 pips in the first day and may drag January and half of Febuarary with it in Bearish mode ... sometimes its not about the political speech or event , but the repercussions that follows ! Greece was one headline and what we witnessed later one what merely a repercussions running after each other !

Problem is , not the fiscal cliff but USA economy that is started week recovery. Anything that threaten that , will push back the economy into negative arena.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #726,676
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:39pm Dec 3, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting John Gray
I totally understand what you mean, and more then likely you are right.

Market is in uptrend therefore more likely to profit from long position.

But we are entering reversal zone, see pic.

Just a thought..
I know about it.
And i did close my longs, took short, and now side-line.. But i am seeing there is a pressure for upside.
Check the weekly charts, for better understanding.
I have been holding my longs since friday, at 1.3025 levels, when it went to 1.2985 or so zone, i knew it will come up at 1.3070 due to that line you pointed out.

But if you se the momentum on the charts, there is divergence, well its not what i always look for.

Check the USD Index, high chances for a dip..

Check GBPUSD - Daily Chart, high chances for uprise, Dollar bearish,

This is my calculation, however its forex, quick action required always, up or down, just follow it
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #726,677
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:41pm Dec 3, 2012 12:41pm
Quoting pkimnyc
interesting bullish action today, i must say though...
Was it bullish for you really mate...??? It was a usual Monday set-up. Extremely tight it range it has become. I hope it breaks to some direction soon... Getting very boring....
  • #726,678
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:42pm Dec 3, 2012 12:42pm
Quoting math_GB
Was it bullish for you really mate...??? It was a usual Monday set-up. Extremely tight it range it has become. I hope it breaks to some direction soon... Getting very boring....
that's exactly what i mean.
  • #726,679
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:43pm Dec 3, 2012 12:43pm
m15 TL broken and retested.we also had DT at 74-75.however i'm not entering any short because of hour of day, just closing my remaining long
Attached Image
  • #726,680
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:45pm Dec 3, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting shmandi
m15 TL broken and retested.we also had DT at 74-75.however i'm not entering any short because of hour of day, just closing my remaining long
Nice graph.

Good luck to you
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
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