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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #62,121
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:28am Dec 3, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Ken A
I can understand to short YEN but AUD and CAD at this moment is the right timing?
Depends on what you're looking for. If your looking at price (techs) only then it's probably too low to short. But if you look at stocks, EURAUD and the probability of an overnight rate cut then this could be the place.
  • #62,122
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:28am Dec 3, 2012 10:28am
Quoting AlienOvichO
Yeah i hope it ends at the top of the V !! what i really like about it is the almost exact moves were repeated in inverse even with the previous hammers XD Like always the past reveals the future in a different ways
If that's true, then I will continue waiting for this...

E/U Weekly:
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,123
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:30am Dec 3, 2012 10:30am
Quoting Ken A
Are you sure? During Risk-On?
The only instruments that think it is a risk-on environment are the EUR and the GBP. Look at equities
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,124
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:31am Dec 3, 2012 10:31am
Quoting lumesh
Depends on what you're looking for. If your looking at price (techs) only then it's probably too low to short. But if you look at stocks, EURAUD and the probability of an overnight rate cut then this could be the place.
Never mind. I thought PT was recommending to short JPY, CAD and AUD but his existing positions.
  • #62,125
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:32am Dec 3, 2012 10:32am
Quoting Feldrin
If you don't mind me asking, what's your EUR.USD target to go short? The 4H downwards TL and resistance I've drawn would hint at about 1.3080, but I've already thrown in a partial because of possible intraday double top at around 1.3075. Going down either now or after a try for 1.3080 would suit me very well.
Initial target over the next couple of weeks is 1.2460/70 area. From there we shall see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,126
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:33am Dec 3, 2012 10:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
If that's true, then I will continue waiting for this...
like that ?

Inserted Video
  • #62,127
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:34am Dec 3, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Ken A
Never mind. I thought PT was recommending to short JPY, CAD and AUD but his existing positions.
Correct. I didn't mean NOW at these levels. I meant that I have a bearish outlook on them so selling the rallies. (or in the case of U/CAD and U/JPY, buying the dips)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,128
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:35am Dec 3, 2012 10:35am
Quoting lumesh
like that ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mID5B2MNmoY
Yep
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,129
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:36am Dec 3, 2012 10:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
The only instruments that think it is a risk-on environment are the EUR and the GBP. Look at equities
I am not sure PT. Looks like dollar being shorted into EUR for now.

To fresh short AUD will run into risk if RBA maintain existing IR.

Crude is at $90 mark now boosting CAD.
  • #62,130
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:47am Dec 3, 2012 10:47am
I see Equities are consolidating for possible rally.


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  • #62,131
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:50am Dec 3, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Ken A
I am not sure PT. Looks like dollar being shorted into EUR for now.

To fresh short AUD will run into risk if RBA maintain existing IR.

Crude is at $90 mark now boosting CAD.
That all depends on your time line Ken. I am mid term and long term views. Short term to me is just food for intraday purposes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,132
  • Dec 3, 2012 10:51am Dec 3, 2012 10:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
That all depends on your time line Ken. I am mid term and long term views. Short term to me is just food for intraday purposes.
Gotcha. I mean to open fresh positions with current conditions.
  • #62,133
  • Dec 3, 2012 11:05am Dec 3, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Feldrin
If you don't mind me asking, what's your EUR.USD target to go short? The 4H downwards TL and resistance I've drawn would hint at about 1.3080, but I've already thrown in a partial because of possible intraday double top at around 1.3075. Going down either now or after a try for 1.3080 would suit me very well.

For quick scalp few pips that's probably safe.

But as long as it stays above 1.3062, I am not going to attempt short the first day rally. Too risky - Dollar Index is about to break support. But again it depends on your leverage and stop size.
  • #62,134
  • Dec 3, 2012 12:20pm Dec 3, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Initial target over the next couple of weeks is 1.2460/70 area. From there we shall see.

hey Pip Trapper I think you are going a little overboard, I mean mathematically over the next couple of weeks it doesn't check out


are you expecting a big increase in volatility?

here are the numbers

.44% average daily volatility for the past 2 years

.44%*sqrt(21/2)= 1.41% would be standard deviation *1, over the next couple of weeks.

let's say the equilibrium price is 1.30 with mean(0)+ sigma1= 1.30-(1.30*[.0044*sqrt(21/2)])= 1.2816

now the monthly -sigma 1 = 1.2740

to reach your target by the end of the month you are talking an increase of 104.5% in daily volatility. do you know something I don't know?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,135
  • Dec 3, 2012 1:24pm Dec 3, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting the redlion
hey Pip Trapper I think you are going a little overboard, I mean mathematically over the next couple of weeks it doesn't check out


are you expecting a big increase in volatility?

here are the numbers

.44% average daily volatility for the past 2 years

.44%*sqrt(21/2)= 1.41% would be standard deviation *1, over the next couple of weeks.

let's say the equilibrium price is 1.30 with mean(0)+ sigma1= 1.30-(1.30*[.0044*sqrt(21/2)])= 1.2816

now the monthly -sigma 1 = 1.2740

to reach your target by the end of the month you are...
We have 2 weeks to go before Christmas. In that time we have 5 CB policy decisions, NFP and more tension regarding the Greek BuyBack plan and the fiscal Cliff. If that doesn't cause volatility to spike, I really am at a loss to figure out what would

Hope you're doing well Red. Long time no hear from you.

All the best for the holiday season if this is your last visit here till 2013
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #62,136
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:20pm Dec 3, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
We have 2 weeks to go before Christmas. In that time we have 5 CB policy decisions, NFP and more tension regarding the Greek BuyBack plan and the fiscal Cliff. If that doesn't cause volatility to spike, I really am at a loss to figure out what would

Hope you're doing well Red. Long time no hear from you.

All the best for the holiday season if this is your last visit here till 2013
so I take it you are expecting USD appreciation with fund managers closing positions, and risk events this month.

I am not sure volatility will be that much but I tend to have the view that risk off might dominate December.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #62,137
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:24pm Dec 3, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting the redlion
so I take it you are expecting USD appreciation with fund managers closing positions, and risk events this month.

I am not sure volatility will be that much but I tend to have the view that risk off might dominate December.
Perhaps, but with so much in the news front plus the potential FED surprise, it really is a wild card.
  • #62,138
  • Dec 3, 2012 6:38pm Dec 3, 2012 6:38pm
gotta love these greeks.....

Ex-Greek PM's mother linked to $550m Swiss account
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354577867 From guardian.co.uk
http://images.forexfactory.net/misc/news_quote.gif Greece's civil war over naming and shaming suspected tax evaders intensified following the claim by police that former prime minister George Papandreou's octogenarian mother was behind a Swiss bank account of mutual funds worth $550m (£342m). Allegations that US-born Margaret Papandreou was on the so-called "Lagarde list", identifying Greeks who had stockpiled fortunes in Switzerland, provoked uproar after two popular newspapers published the claims on Sunday. Citing high-level officials at the crisis-hit country's financial crime squad, SDOE, the two weeklies, To Vima and Proto Thema, ... (full story)
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #62,139
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:45pm Dec 3, 2012 7:45pm
Possible Dollar rally?
Your Gold Ain't Gonna Save You, But Your Dollars Will

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh....-but-your.html
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #62,140
  • Dec 3, 2012 8:11pm Dec 3, 2012 8:11pm
As of now, all are speculative and subjective before the facts. Anything can happen, we just try to be on the right side when it happens.
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