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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #32,201
  • Dec 3, 2012 2:16am Dec 3, 2012 2:16am
Quoting brinks
Yes I think NFP is expected to be weak because of the storm so as you say may spike down but you never know.
Also i'm wary of the japanese election buy the rumour sell the fact.
Agreed, but there's also the Y 880B of stimulus that was announced on Friday so I'm not to worried. Not to mention I'm fairly certain ABE will be on the wire with his political jaw boning that the market seems to love.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,202
  • Dec 3, 2012 2:22am Dec 3, 2012 2:22am
Quoting DaEdge
Agreed, but there's also the Y 880B of stimulus that was announced on Friday so I'm not to worried. Not to mention I'm fairly certain ABE will be on the wire with his political jaw boning that the market seems to love.
Yes i would just like to get in at better price thats all.
I dont really like to go long at these levels
  • #32,203
  • Dec 3, 2012 2:25am Dec 3, 2012 2:25am
Quoting brinks
Yes i would just like to get in at better price thats all.
I dont really like to go long at these levels
We're in the same boat.
It works till it doesn't
  • #32,204
  • Dec 3, 2012 2:56am Dec 3, 2012 2:56am
Whats causing the further drop now?
  • #32,205
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:00am Dec 3, 2012 3:00am
Quoting Zac
Whats causing the further drop now?
I dont know its just range trading at the moment isnt it?
  • #32,206
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:25am Dec 3, 2012 3:25am
Quoting brinks
I dont know its just range trading at the moment isnt it?
Yes is in trading range .

Take a look at my chart because I see that Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen intersected at $82.42 and from there we had this drop and also the candles break the Kumo now at $82.13, if the fundamentals don't help the chart I think that for a short while we are going to $81.75-50 area !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Kumo break.jpg Size: 351 KB
  • #32,207
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:06am Dec 3, 2012 4:06am
Quoting MisterSpread
Yes is in trading range .

Take a look at my chart because I see that Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen intersected at $82.42 and from there we had this drop and also the candles break the Kumo now at $82.13, if the fundamentals don't help the chart I think that for a short while we are going to $81.75-50 area !
81.75 would be nice to start building longs
  • #32,208
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:34am Dec 3, 2012 4:34am
Anyone been following the COT report?
The Yen is at an Extreme on the short side.
  • #32,209
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:40am Dec 3, 2012 4:40am
Quoting Zac
Anyone been following the COT report?
The Yen is at an Extreme on the short side.
Where do you follow that please ?
  • #32,210
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:42am Dec 3, 2012 4:42am
Quoting MisterSpread
Where do you follow that please ?


The chart yen bears don’t want to see

Written by Adam Button
December 2, 2012 at 19:23 GMT

Yen shorts are at a 5-year high.
The weekly CFTC data released Friday show net yen shorts at 79K, a surge from 51K a week earlier.
http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...en-330x160.png
The data is collected at the close each Tuesday.
The most frightening part is that even as yen shorts piled on (from Tues, Nov 20 to Tues, Nov 27) USD/JPY rose just 47 pips.
If you’re long USD/JPY or any other yen cross beware.
  • #32,211
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:22am Dec 3, 2012 5:22am
brinks can you explain a bit what that chart is trying to say? I'm still learning somethings on charts so a little help please
  • #32,212
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:30am Dec 3, 2012 5:30am
Quoting MisterSpread
brinks can you explain a bit what that chart is trying to say? I'm still learning somethings on charts so a little help please
It is just showing how short the market is on yen.
The red line joining the spikes down was the last time the market was as short as now mid 2010 and the beginning of this year.
I think they are just trying to highlight the case for a squeeze of the usd/jpy longs.

But i'm not a expert myself and does the cftc data cover all the market or just us retailers?
  • #32,213
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:31am Dec 3, 2012 5:31am
What I dont understand is if the Yen is at an extreme short, why hasnt the USDJPY surpassed the previous 2012 high of 84??
Anyway I think theres some fundamental reasons to keep Yen short but surpised its at such an extreme on the COT already. So I guess it wont take much for people to exit their shorts and make a mess of it all.
  • #32,214
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:34am Dec 3, 2012 5:34am
Quoting Zac
What I dont understand is if the Yen is at an extreme short, why hasnt the USDJPY surpassed the previous 2012 high of 84??
Anyway I think theres some fundamental reasons to keep Yen short but surpised its at such an extreme on the COT already. So I guess it wont take much for people to exit their shorts and make a mess of it all.

yes this is what the post from forexlive is saying with the market so short yen it only managed a move up of 40 odd pips
  • #32,215
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:35am Dec 3, 2012 5:35am
Quoting brinks
It is just showing how short the market is on yen.

But i'm not a expert myself and does the cftc data cover all the market or just us retailers?
Its all futures contracts traded isnt it?? Commercial / Large speculators (ie institutions/funds) & retail investors.
  • #32,216
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:36am Dec 3, 2012 5:36am
Quoting Zac
Its all futures contracts traded isnt it?? Commercial / Large speculators (ie institutions/funds) & retail investors.
yes that sounds about right i wasnt sure thanks
  • #32,217
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:41am Dec 3, 2012 5:41am
Quoting MisterSpread
brinks can you explain a bit what that chart is trying to say? I'm still learning somethings on charts so a little help please
http://i.imgur.com/uZp7r.png
  • #32,218
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:43am Dec 3, 2012 5:43am
Quoting Compulsive
http://i.imgur.com/uZp7r.png
A picture paints a thousand words thanks
  • #32,219
  • Dec 3, 2012 5:45am Dec 3, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Compulsive
http://i.imgur.com/uZp7r.png
Seems like for the last 2 years, positioning is not as strong as it was the years before. The risk reward is much much better to be long, however be cautios
  • #32,220
  • Dec 3, 2012 6:13am Dec 3, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Compulsive
Seems like for the last 2 years, positioning is not as strong as it was the years before. The risk reward is much much better to be long, however be cautios
Fundamentals im not sure are that way, I see though the exteme short positioning does say that though, although not from a longer term basis.

The Yen being devalued is something to consider.
When bond markets begin to deflate and I guess that will be when inflation kicks in or safe havens lose their appeal, then the Yen will have lots of money taken out of it.
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