Elliott wave outlook | Page 201 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Elliott Wave Counting with EG 2,835 replies

EUR/USD and other - Elliott Wave Analysis 21 replies

The Basics of Elliott Wave Theory 128 replies

Elliott Wave Gbp/usd 4 replies

(Euro) Elliott Wave Formations 43 replies

Attachments: Elliott wave outlook
Exit Attachments

Elliott wave outlook

Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
Sep 11, 2014
Last Sync: Sep 11, 2014
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #4,001
  • Edited 6:12pm Dec 1, 2012 5:58pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
how do we confirm the divergence?
rewrite my question. How do we confirm a divergence is over?
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,002
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:11pm Dec 1, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
rewrite my question. How do we confirm a divergence is over?
In that case you look at the price then you look at the indicator ��.
Different time frames will produce different amount of pips when divergence is playing out.
If you want precise entry then you need to know the price and even better if you know the time!
Divergence is a powerful tool if understood correctly.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,003
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:56pm Dec 1, 2012 7:56pm
Quoting Raza
In that case you look at the price then you look at the indicator ��.
Different time frames will produce different amount of pips when divergence is playing out.
If you want precise entry then you need to know the price and even better if you know the time!
Divergence is a powerful tool if understood correctly.
It is not so easy.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,004
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:01pm Dec 1, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
It is not so easy.
It needs practice.

Then it becomes easier.

Honestly speaking its not a problem for me this is why I answered your question.

In trading it is my strength.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,005
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:29pm Dec 1, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting Raza
It needs practice.

Then it becomes easier.

Honestly speaking its not a problem for me this is why I answered your question.

In trading it is my strength.
So euro dollar is diverging since 2002...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: div.png Size: 39 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,006
  • Edited 8:57pm Dec 1, 2012 8:43pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
So euro dollar is diverging since 2002...

No that's not the way to spot divergence .

You don't go that far in time if you want to then may be yearly chart may give you some answer.

On this chart you look to the left of the recent high or low on the stoch/ RSI( whatever you use) then you look at the price level previously and what's it at now. You can figure out if it is bullish or bearish.
There are 4 kinds of divergences. Bullish/ bearish then hidden bullish/ hidden bearish.

If you wanna practice divergence then try 5 min chart. I use stoch for divergence that's the only indicator I use.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,007
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:36pm Dec 1, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting Raza
No that's not the way to spot divergence .

You don't go that far in time if you want to then may be yearly chart may give you some answer.

On this chart you look to the left of the recent high or low on the stoch/ RSI( whatever you use) then you look at the price level previously and what's it at now. You can figure out if it is bullish or bearish.
There are 4 kinds of divergences. Bullish/ bearish then hidden bullish/ hidden bearish.

If you wanna practice divergence then try 5 min chart. I use stoch for divergence that's the only indicator...
I think you know what I mean, you cant know when a div is in place or not perfectly as a law as science.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,008
  • Dec 2, 2012 12:20am Dec 2, 2012 12:20am
Quoting Luis Carlos
I think you know what I mean, you cant know when a div is in place or not perfectly as a law as science.
Can't agree,

I had been using divergence for over 4 years now. It plays out perfectly all the time in different Tfs.One needs practise.

2 Important things about Divergence:

The important thing is to know the price level which I obtain from non traditional way of drawing the fibs.

If one does not know advanced way of fibbing then you can just use previous price levels as reference to spot a divergence.

If you dont see divergence playing or ending in one Time frame, then switch to higher Time frame.

I believe its the divergence which changes your wave counts.

I had practised and understood Divergence by experience. No book can tell you what I know from experience.

Another important thing is to tweak the default settings of the indicator you are using to get the saisfaction level.

Divergence tells you how much more price can go down or up. So it is important to know while trading. Keeps you out of trouble.

There is nothing more I can say about Divergence.

Regards,

Raza
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #4,009
  • Dec 2, 2012 2:26am Dec 2, 2012 2:26am
Quoting Luis Carlos
how do we confirm the divergence?
Hy Luis. Wave 5 end with divergence. On H4 stochastic and AO start diverge. But H1 show as 5 wave not end yet.
107.66 was end of wave iii.Wave 5 end 107.95.IMO
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh1.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpyh4.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #4,010
  • Dec 2, 2012 6:51am Dec 2, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Hy Luis. Wave 5 end with divergence. On H4 stochastic and AO start diverge. But H1 show as 5 wave not end yet.
107.66 was end of wave iii.Wave 5 end 107.95.IMO
Nice Tim. That is why i put alt: b. We got 3 up. If we dont make a new high, the market is still correcting
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,011
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:17am Dec 2, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Nice Tim. That is why i put alt: b. We got 3 up. If we dont make a new high, the market is still correcting
Luis I don't trade this pair, just a little exercise for EW .
  • #4,012
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:47am Dec 2, 2012 7:47am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Luis I don't trade this pair, just a little exercise for EW .
I just suggest that try to have ew in all pairs and update one time a day... Sometime other pairs are more clear than others to trade... yen pairs right now are the best.
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,013
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:31am Dec 2, 2012 9:31am
Quoting Raza
In that case you look at the price then you look at the indicator ��.
Different time frames will produce different amount of pips when divergence is playing out.
If you want precise entry then you need to know the price and even better if you know the time!
Divergence is a powerful tool if understood correctly.
Hi Luis,

in general, playing divergences oftentimes does not pay out, especially on the lower TF's.


Once I analyzed hundreds of divergences on different TF's. I started counting the pips, when I saw a beginning divergence.

I have results for 15min, 1h and 4h TF

The median drawdown and the median result is as follows:


A divergence on 15min TF produces in mean 30 pips drawdown and gain, on H1 60pips, on H4 90 pips.

Interesting fact is/was, that the main drawdown /gain per TF was around the same number.

This alone sets the R/R at 1:1 over the long haul.



Over the last weeks and months we have seen many many creeping movements producing large divergences (mainly on smaller TF's), with many overlapping waves. I attribute this mainly to the fact, that recently HFT-algos are even used heavily in Forex trading.


Major part of my trading was dedicated to divergence trading, but since end of sumer I stay most of the time away from this method.
  • #4,014
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:34am Dec 2, 2012 9:34am
Quoting Raza
No that's not the way to spot divergence .

You don't go that far in time if you want to then may be yearly chart may give you some answer.

On this chart you look to the left of the recent high or low on the stoch/ RSI( whatever you use) then you look at the price level previously and what's it at now. You can figure out if it is bullish or bearish.
There are 4 kinds of divergences. Bullish/ bearish then hidden bullish/ hidden bearish.

If you wanna practice divergence then try 5 min chart. I use stoch for divergence that's the only indicator...


Hi Raza,

well laid out
  • #4,015
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:36am Dec 2, 2012 9:36am
Euro yen, long term update... The same... nothing change...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euroyen.PNG Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 33 KB
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,016
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:40am Dec 2, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Luis Carlos
I think you know what I mean, you cant know when a div is in place or not perfectly as a law as science.
Hi Luis,

correct :-)


Sometimes we see divergences building and they do not play out. That is the case, when price moves in many little steps forwards and backwards (but trending) - I call that creeping. In this way momentum gets kind of recharged. One thinks, that a nice divergence is in play but then, all of a sudden, price moves either explosive in the trending direction, or keeps on creeping forever.


Therefore it is best to look for divergences at heavy S/R-zones
  • #4,017
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:42am Dec 2, 2012 9:42am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Luis,

in general, playing divergences oftentimes does not pay out, especially on the lower TF's.


Once I analyzed hundreds of divergences on different TF's. I started counting the pips, when I saw a beginning divergence.

I have results for 15min, 1h and 4h TF

The median drawdown and the median result is as follows:


A divergence on 15min TF produces in mean 30 pips drawdown and gain, on H1 60pips, on H4 90 pips.

Interesting fact is/was, that the main drawdown /gain per TF was around the same number.

This alone sets...
Thanks Markus that is more useful... But I still believe right now there is not a rule to know if a divergence is over or will be divergence
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,018
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:43am Dec 2, 2012 9:43am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Luis,

correct :-)


Sometimes we see divergences building and they do not play out. That is the case, when price moves in many little steps forwards and backwards (but trending) - I call that creeping. In this way momentum gets kind of recharged. One thinks, that a nice divergence is in play but then, all of a sudden, price moves either explosive in the trending direction, or keeps on creeping forever.


Therefore it is best to look for divergences at heavy S/R-zones
Thats the way, you know what I mean
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #4,019
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:44am Dec 2, 2012 9:44am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Luis,

in general, playing divergences oftentimes does not pay out, especially on the lower TF's.


Once I analyzed hundreds of divergences on different TF's. I started counting the pips, when I saw a beginning divergence.

I have results for 15min, 1h and 4h TF

The median drawdown and the median result is as follows:


A divergence on 15min TF produces in mean 30 pips drawdown and gain, on H1 60pips, on H4 90 pips.

Interesting fact is/was, that the main drawdown /gain per TF was around the same number.

This alone sets the...


Most of the time the question is: when is the divergence ripe?


Well, one can say: when I see a divergence on 15min TF, I wait for divergence at 5min TF, I wait for divergence in 1min TF (it is like waiting for su-subwave 5 of subwave 5 of wave 5)
  • #4,020
  • Dec 2, 2012 9:48am Dec 2, 2012 9:48am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Thanks Markus that is more useful... But I still believe right now there is not a rule to know if a divergence is over or will be divergence
Right again Senore Carlos :-)


Sometimes, in my study, I have observed divergences on 15min TF, where price went more than 50 pips in the direction, before reversing.


Best thing to avoid this is to look for divergences in 15min TF, then 5min TF and time entry on 1min TF


But even then you got sometimes burned
3 traders viewing now