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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #17,301
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:30pm Dec 1, 2012 2:30pm
Quoting DaddyBear
My view is the USD will be a supper currency at that time. It will keep the safe haven status and also becomes a commodity currency.
Are we talking years out because I don't see the US raising rates for a couple of years.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,302
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:32pm Dec 1, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I agree. But there are down moves all the time during a bullish major move.
Of course nothing goings straight up or straight down.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,303
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:13pm Dec 1, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The A$ shall be moving back to where it belongs to at 0.5 to 0.6 range.
...
are you crazy?

that wont happen,
if this ever happen, US economy is going to collapse again as USD will be way overvalued.
  • #17,304
  • Dec 1, 2012 6:21pm Dec 1, 2012 6:21pm
Quoting HelloOz
...
are you crazy?

that wont happen,
if this ever happen, US economy is going to collapse again as USD will be way overvalued.
The USD will be higher against A$ sooner than later. I used to trade A$ at 0.5X. When it went up to 0.6x, I thought it was over valued.

I guess you are new to this game. You may think A$ should be above the parity forever. This is not the norm.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,305
  • Dec 1, 2012 6:28pm Dec 1, 2012 6:28pm
Quoting HelloOz
...
are you crazy?

that wont happen,
if this ever happen, US economy is going to collapse again as USD will be way overvalued.
When the US begins to export oil, you may be thinking you were crazy in 2012.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,306
  • Dec 1, 2012 6:38pm Dec 1, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
When the US begins to export oil, you may be thinking you were crazy in 2012.

Don't forget space exploration! Although I have no idea about the timings of any of that stuff, America will surely majorly benefit from it.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #17,307
  • Dec 1, 2012 6:39pm Dec 1, 2012 6:39pm
actually i think the same DB..for me it's a carry trade ? yes there is a fundamental that push the lady higher and higher than usd at the moment. but too over valued and too much. it means that ausie is so expensive and could be danger for their competitiveness in business ( including export - import ). just IMHO

1 cent and only


Quoting DaddyBear
The USD will be higher against A$ sooner than later. I used to trade A$ at 0.5X. When it went up to 0.6x, I thought it was over valued.

I guess you are new to this game. You may think A$ should be above the parity forever. This is not the norm.
not euphoria follower
  • #17,308
  • Edited Dec 2, 2012 12:43am Dec 1, 2012 7:08pm | Edited Dec 2, 2012 12:43am
Quoting GnarlyPips
Don't forget space exploration! Although I have no idea about the timings of any of that stuff, America will surely majorly benefit from it.
I am not sure when the first US aircraft carrier set sail to the seven seas around the globe, but I do know there were quite a few US carriers before WII. It is at least more than 70 years. US Navy pilots took off and landed on the carriers at that time already.

Last week, China showed its military might by landing a fighter jet on a remodeled carrier originally built in Ukraine. This was a test or a first time landing. By looking at this news, I'd say there is a 70 years technology gap between the US and China.

Now China is the second largest economy in the world. Does this mean that it is only a few inches behind the US? Although China sent men to the orbit recently, the US did this long time ago. The gap is at least 60 years.

Now, a lot of people think the US is doomed. They are thinking the USD is going to be like toilet paper soon. I'd say it's naive to think so. When the US becomes the top oil producer in the world, the USD will be much stronger than it is now.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,309
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:10pm Dec 1, 2012 7:10pm
Quoting iqyu5an
actually i think the same DB..for me it's a carry trade ? yes there is a fundamental that push the lady higher and higher than usd at the moment. but too over valued and too much. it means that ausie is so expensive and could be danger for their competitiveness in business ( including export - import ). just IMHO

1 cent and only
Cannot agree with you more. Do you mind I add 1 cent to your 1 cent and make them 2 cents?
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,310
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:25pm Dec 1, 2012 7:25pm
Although Australia is a nice country with abundant natural resources, it relies on its exports too much. With only a population of 22,827,679 in 2012 (52nd), the domestic market is too weak to sustain a currency above the parity against the USD for too long.

Some people may argue the interest rate matters. I don't disagree with this point. The question is how long RBA is able to keep the rate at this level when the exports are suffered by such non-competitive exchange rate.

When the exports begin to dwindle and the domestic market is too small to keep the economy strong, the end result will be continued rate cut in order to revive the exports.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,311
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:33pm Dec 1, 2012 7:33pm


i just need 1 cent, don't add it into my pocket hahhahahahaa


enough 1 cent for me

Quoting DaddyBear
Cannot agree with you more. Do you mind I add 1 cent to your 1 cent and make them 2 cents?
not euphoria follower
  • #17,312
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:36pm Dec 1, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting iqyu5an
actually i think the same DB..for me it's a carry trade ? yes there is a fundamental that push the lady higher and higher than usd at the moment. but too over valued and too much. it means that ausie is so expensive and could be danger for their competitiveness in business ( including export - import ). just IMHO

1 cent and only
Quoting DaddyBear
A

When the exports begin to dwindle and the domestic market is too small to keep the economy strong, the end result will be continued rate cut in order to revive the exports.
.
not euphoria follower
  • #17,313
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:42pm Dec 1, 2012 7:42pm
Quoting iqyu5an
Quote:
Originally Posted by iqyu5an http://images.forexfactory.net/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6252955#post6252955)
actually i think the same DB..for me it's a carry trade ? yes there is a fundamental that push the lady higher and higher than usd at the moment. but too over valued and too much. it means that ausie is so expensive and could be danger for their competitiveness in business ( including export - import ). just IMHO

1 cent and only


Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyBear http://images.forexfactory.net/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6252975#post6252975)
When the exports begin to dwindle and the domestic market is too small to keep the economy strong, the end result will be continued rate cut in order to revive the exports.


People with like minds see things in the same way.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,314
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:47pm Dec 1, 2012 7:47pm
dude.. wanna go out a while to have a breakfast

will be back later. c ya.....


Quoting DaddyBear
People with like minds see things in the same way.
not euphoria follower
  • #17,315
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:49pm Dec 1, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Although Australia is a nice country with abundant natural resources, it relies on its exports too much. With only a population of 22,827,679 in 2012 (52nd), the domestic market is too weak to sustain a currency above the parity against the USD for too long.

Some people may argue the interest rate matters. I don't disagree with this point. The question is how long RBA is able to keep the rate at this level when the exports are suffered by such non-competitive exchange rate.

When the exports begin to dwindle and the domestic market is too small...
On the other hand, besides its abundant natural resources, the US has a population of 314,867,000 in 2012 (3rd). This domestic market is so strong to support other nations' exports growth.

The economy has its cycles. The US will come out stronger than ever after the fiscal cliff is avoided.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,316
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:54pm Dec 1, 2012 7:54pm
I checked XE site and saw the Aussie up a bit after CNY PMI last night. Looks like a pop is likely on Sunday. If it opens at or near 1.044x, the pro bears will jump in to slaughter the bulls IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,317
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:27pm Dec 1, 2012 8:27pm
The weekly chart suggests a green candle to be formed at the end of the coming week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-113012-W.JPG Size: 87 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,318
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:45pm Dec 1, 2012 8:45pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The weekly chart suggests a green candle to be formed at the end of the coming week.
Your chart actually suggests that there will be a red candle that will test the green cloud.
  • #17,319
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:26pm Dec 1, 2012 9:26pm
Quoting maximmm
Your chart actually suggests that there will be a red candle that will test the green cloud.
I was trying to show the daily movement but caused confusion instead. Here is a revised version.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,320
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:32pm Dec 1, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting maximmm
Your chart actually suggests that there will be a red candle that will test the green cloud.
Green cloud! Nice one. In fact my system's clouds are better then Ichimoku Clouds. When the green cloud reaches its maximum level, the bullish momentum will end. When the red cloud reaches its minimum level, the bear stops there.
daddybearforex. com
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