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  • #17,281
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:15am Dec 1, 2012 11:15am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Wow 43 traders viewing this. It"s a trading day???
Seems to me some people are interested in the EWP discussions.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,282
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:17am Dec 1, 2012 11:17am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Combinations of threes were labeled differently by Elliott at different times, although the illustrative pattern always took the shape of two or three juxtaposed flats, as shown in Figures 1-45 and 1-46. However, the component patterns more commonly alternate in form. For example, a flat followed by a triangle is a more typical type of double three, as illustrated in Figure 1-47. We have abWXabYabZ page 24 fig 1-46EW book in my H4 My W red shoud be Z

...
Regardless of how the EWP formations are, I think the pattern will be held inside the channel.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354375158
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,283
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:17am Dec 1, 2012 11:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
Seems to me some people are interested in the EWP discussions.
DB see you tomorrow.
  • #17,284
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:21am Dec 1, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Tim_isoara
DB see you tomorrow.
Enjoy your weekend.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,285
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:26am Dec 1, 2012 11:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
Regardless of how the EWP formations are, I think the pattern will be held inside the channel.
H4 ADX suggests the Bear is still in control. A pop caused by CNY PMI may be capped at 1.044x again Sunday night.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,286
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:31am Dec 1, 2012 11:31am
Quoting DaddyBear
H4 ADX suggests the Bear is still in control. A pop caused by CNY PMI may be capped at 1.044x again Sunday night.
In other words, A gap up Sunday night may be faded by pro bears waiting at 1.044x.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352659768
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,287
  • Edited 12:07pm Dec 1, 2012 11:33am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting DaddyBear
In other words, A gap up Sunday night may be faded by pro bears waiting at 1.044x.
Accordingly, a sell-off anticipated by pro bears will push this pair to the daily LTL before RBA decision Tuesday.
If the market paths were preset as I mentioned many times before, and my EWP reading is correct at this point, RBA may keep the rate unchanged. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,288
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:47am Dec 1, 2012 11:47am
For all the Aussie bulls

http://www.afr.com/p/national/russian_central_bank_builds_up_stockpile_L8fI4hHSuZKCbag5lpStnI
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,289
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:56am Dec 1, 2012 11:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
Accordingly, a sell-off anticipated by pro bears will push this pair to the LTL before RBA decision Tuesday.
If the market paths were preset as I mentioned many times before, and my EWP reading is correct at this point, RBA may keep the rate unchanged. IMO
For the so called "Forex forecasting websites", they use RBA's rate decision as a pivot to flip their forecasts. My projection is a reversed thinking. I use EWP to project whether or not a rate cut would be. IMO, this is a better way to figure out the market's next moves.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,290
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:00pm Dec 1, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting DaEdge
For all the Aussie bulls

http://www.afr.com/p/national/russian_central_bank_builds_up_stockpile_L8fI4hHSuZKCbag5lpStnI
Russia is not a major player in the Forex market. It may create some minor impact at best. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,291
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:02pm Dec 1, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Russia is not a major player in the Forex market. It may create some minor impact at best. IMO
If China is buying A$, then it would be another story.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,292
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:06pm Dec 1, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting DaddyBear
If China is buying A$, then it would be another story.
I wouldn't think Russia is making a good move. The US is going to be the No. 1 oil producer in a few years, A$ will depreciate gradually accordingly.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,293
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:12pm Dec 1, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting DaddyBear
For the so called "Forex forecasting websites", they use RBA's rate decision as a pivot to flip their forecasts. My projection is a reversed thinking. I use EWP to project whether or not a rate cut would be. IMO, this is a better way to figure out the market's next moves.
The formula is like this:
"Forecasting method" -
If a rate cut then down
If no rate cut then up

My EWP projection -
If the wave moves down first then no cut
If the wave moves up then the cut is in the cards

See the difference? The former has to wait until it happens. Mine is trying to figure it out before it happens.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,294
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:16pm Dec 1, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I wouldn't think Russia is making a good move. The US is going to be the No. 1 oil producer in a few years, A$ will depreciate gradually accordingly.
The A$ shall be moving back to where it belongs to at 0.5 to 0.6 range.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,295
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:17pm Dec 1, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The A$ shall be moving back to where it belongs to at 0.5 to 0.6 range.
If this happens, Russia is going to get burned badly.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,296
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:21pm Dec 1, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
The A$ shall be moving back to where it belongs to at 0.5 to 0.6 range.
At those prices I buy & hold for decades. Just for the swap alone it would be worth it.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,297
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:24pm Dec 1, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting DaEdge
At those prices I buy & hold for decades. Just for the swap alone it would be worth it.
But, at that time, the swap may not be that high because the Aussie interest may be dropped to a low level. On the other hand, the US interest rate may be much higher at that time. In this case, a negative swap may occur if you long the Aussie.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,298
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:26pm Dec 1, 2012 12:26pm
I think were going to get a little more up before any reasonable move down. I alway prefer the short side because fear is a way stronger emotion than greed, but I'm not seeing anything convincing enough to get me in short & hold mode. Especially with fiscal cliff still not out of the way yet. I'm fairly confident this will be resolved before year end. I do however think that next year will be extremely bullish for the dollar but for me to get short now it still seems premature & I don't have enough confirmation yet.
It works till it doesn't
  • #17,299
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:28pm Dec 1, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting DaddyBear
But, at that time, the swap may not be that high because the Aussie interest may be dropped to a low level. On the other hand, the US interest rate may be much higher at that time. In this case, a negative swap may occur if you long the Aussie.
My view is the USD will be a supper currency at that time. It will keep the safe haven status and also becomes a commodity currency.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,300
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:29pm Dec 1, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting DaEdge
I think were going to get a little more up before any reasonable move down. I alway prefer the short side because fear is a way stronger emotion than greed, but I'm not seeing anything convincing enough to get me in short & hold mode. Especially with fiscal cliff still not out of the way yet. I'm fairly confident this will be resolved before year end. I do however think that next year will be extremely bullish for the dollar but for me to get short now it still seems premature & I don't have enough confirmation yet.
I agree. But there are down moves all the time during a bullish major move.
daddybearforex. com
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