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  • #725,881
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:38am Dec 1, 2012 10:38am
Quoting pkimnyc
regardless the daily range. 40-50 pips are still good imo. depending on where you get in though. market condition sometimes do this. you just need to adjust your target profit accordingly, i guess. if this isn't going for you then you might consider choosing other pairs to trade.

when majors are not moving, then you might look into cross pairs.
True... I started since few weeks to trade all of the following pairs at the same time and that helped me a little... So trading works like the following:

Say I have a bearish view for the day:

- EUR/USD short (10 lots)
- GBP/USD short (10 lots)
- CHF/JPY short (10 lots)
- AUD/USD short (10 lots) - This is where I have problems lately, the correlation of this pair has significantly dropped lately)

It became a little more easier to collect 40 pips while trading all athe same time.

Also another note, I can't remember who, it was maybe Killerwhale or I think it was Kuroro (who I don't think has come back to FF for the last couple of weeks) who woke me up with CHF/JPY. It became a great indicator for the direction of EUR for me lately... You may want to check that all. I owe Kuroro one for that...!
  • #725,882
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:40am Dec 1, 2012 10:40am
Quoting CoolJL
The range nowadays is bout 100 and you are trying to catch 40 pips which is almost half the range! I really can't see anyone doing that cosistantly.

Maybe it'd be easier to catch couple of 20pips than one 40 pips.

Yeah, constantly... That would make me a billionaire... Loll...!That is the target of course,I don't complain when I could make 39 pips on the day You made a point tough... Maybe 40 pips is a little agressive... Right...
  • #725,883
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:44am Dec 1, 2012 10:44am
Quoting BobGnarly
If you cant watch your account fluctuate from day trading well then yes you will be best at trading smaller tf's. 40 pip a day target is very feasible. If you monitor your trades all day I would start by removing your SL's. When people say " oh they are just stop hunting" dont be one of people that got shot... If you have a mental SL and price breaks it with force and volume you are best to get out. If it drifts below your SL and has a nice reversal, stay in the trade until your target is hit. Also I never risk more than 4% of my capital on a...

Another true point.. Much appreciated Bob... From what I have experienced it is the money management that can survive you in this bizz. No mate, I am a family man so have to risk accordingly, that is the reason for small leverage and daily stop loss limit. Thanks dude...
  • #725,884
  • Dec 1, 2012 10:59am Dec 1, 2012 10:59am
Quoting math_GB
Another true point.. Much appreciated Bob... From what I have experienced it is the money management that can survive you in this bizz. No mate, I am a family man so have to risk accordingly, that is the reason for small leverage and daily stop loss limit. Thanks dude...
No problem man.. My last tip would be when you are in the green cut half of your position and move your SL to BE, guaranteed green pips, and maybe a runner
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #725,885
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:04am Dec 1, 2012 11:04am
Quoting BobGnarly
No problem man.. My last tip would be when you are in the green cut half of your position and move your SL to BE, guaranteed green pips, and maybe a runner
I did that too but there the problem I have is: I do not want BE, I enter a trade with a view and and in doubt I don't take the position anyway. So either it should work or not, and also it is very rare that I catch a 40 pip runner position daily. If I cut it on the way then hunt for another trade, that pisses me off...
  • #725,886
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:11am Dec 1, 2012 11:11am
Quoting math_GB
I did that too but there the problem I have is: I do not want BE, I enter a trade with a view and and in doubt I don't take the position anyway. So either it should work or not, and also it is very rare that I catch a 40 pip runner position daily. If I cut it on the way then hunt for another trade, that pisses me off...
BE is better than a loss.. And only move to BE after cutting half guarantees at least a few green pips
Want the lifestyle of the top traders in the world? TAKE RISK.
  • #725,887
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:13am Dec 1, 2012 11:13am
Quoting math_GB
Without hope we will turn into savages mate.. I just hope we can get a clear direction untill the end of the year. I read somewhere that double touch barrier options are also out of the way untill mid January so we do not need to stay in a range any more. On the upside which I do not favor, the nasty thing is the reserve managers from Asia may come back to the market again and this may push the pair much higher than anyone would expect, as long as we are below 1.30 landmark figure they do not seem to be active, above hell yeah..! So caution is...
from what i see is that the problem lies in you not able to find and believe in a particular system that fit in that stop loss condition and risk reward to manage a higher than 0% growth than loss. This may sound funny/cocky, 50-100 pips is too easy to be bagged from the market daily. If you know what system to fit that, alot of traders are building positions on not so ideal location of numbers and having their stop loss more easily taken out and able to reach their profit targets which is why FIBONACCI is there to guide a trader about positioning and profit taking as it always fall into the previous S turn r, r turn s, level of consolidation and etc, so their profits target may never be reached and stop loss too easily hunted or not able to get into a good set up, if u have none set up don't get into the trade just for the sake of getting into one, sometimes its best to wait for a clear signal of price rejection like 0.0-23.6 down to 50.0 price fail to sustain above 23.6 again u might want to sell back down etc. In the tight range of trading, normally i can open up down + 10/15 pips positions few times and get away with 50-100 pips without marrying to any direction and look for new set up again and again. If the price is within a range, no matter how far u aim it can just be within the range. If its out of range, using buy sell stops can catch them already.

So u need to find a system that suits ur personality and do try to trade a particular pairs before u jump into many pairs, this may cause conflicts to ur decision making if u are not as experienced or consistent in producing results.
  • #725,888
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:28am Dec 1, 2012 11:28am
Quoting math_GB
True... I started since few weeks to trade all of the following pairs at the same time and that helped me a little... So trading works like the following:

Say I have a bearish view for the day:

- EUR/USD short (10 lots)
- GBP/USD short (10 lots)
- CHF/JPY short (10 lots)
- AUD/USD short (10 lots) - This is where I have problems lately, the correlation of this pair has significantly dropped lately)

It became a little more easier to collect 40 pips while trading all athe same time.

Also another note, I can't remember who, it was...
The best indicator for price is always price action understanding higher high, lower high, high low, lower high with a little help of fibo and knowing abcd, all the top pros in the banks or chief traders just look at the naked charts and point the areas of concern for the trading room traders, when price is moving heavily in the US session where stock market, futures, options, gold and everything are moving, no one can really anticipate what's going to happen, but price action is there to guide about buy resistance, sell support on areas of concern.

correlation or inverse relation may not necessary work all the time, if u are trading the asia slow range market on a peaceful monday/tuesday without any cny or aud datas or news farted from anywhere because someone open their mouth, maybe it can help, but in the us session, a 100 pips drop in eur/usd due to fundamental tweets may not necessary pull 100 pips in aus/usd , can just be 5-10 pips while eur/aud falls like hell, when a trader look at cross pairs to see what's going on, it's already too late, price can shoot up and down that quickly and trader can go emotional while looking at so many pairs. Simplicity is the easiest, even after many years, many veteran would stills recommend naked charts.
  • #725,889
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:33am Dec 1, 2012 11:33am
Quoting 5percent
from what i see is that the problem lies in you not able to find and believe in a particular system that fit in that stop loss condition and risk reward to manage a higher than 0% growth than loss. This may sound funny/cocky, 50-100 pips is too easy to be bagged from the market daily. If you know what system to fit that, alot of traders are building positions on not so ideal location of numbers and having their stop loss more easily taken out and able to reach their profit targets which is why FIBONACCI is there to guide a trader about positioning...
Firstly, the part where I marked above is a wise advice for unexperienced dorks like myself. I initally tought that trading 4 pairs at the same time would ease my job and in theory yes it did however my decision making has been badly effected no doubt...

OK, I have to use the opportunity and keep asking a few additional questions by elaborating the case:

- In the morning after getting my daily cafein shot around 6:30 am UK time, I turn the PC on and look what Asia has done during the night. Calculate daily pivot level, fib levels and all the standard set up.

- Then depending where the price is above/below the daily pivot or weekly make the decision for the direction.
- It took me a while to understand Frankfurt is full of shite mostly and wait for that to be over and wait for the BIG BOYS of the city.

- Between 8:00 am and 10:00 there is almost every day a move of 50-60 pips to a direction we know of. That 50-60 pips is where the daily high/low of Asia from. So you need to act accordingly. After 10:00 am again look where it stands and in case I do want to keep trading then reduce the lot sizes untill the fat lady sings 14:30 UK time.

- These days we have such a tight range, 70-80 pips max and mostly it s the US session where I lose my profits... So trading should end latest 16:30 UK time for me.

And here are my questions for you:

- Am I taking daily pivot too serios?
- You are right about the Fib levels and I do care about them but PA always hunts for stop loss around those levels. So it became wise to wait until that fibo level is touched at least twice. Is this right? PA lately touches many more times than only twice to depress traders like me.
- In the past, up untill a year ago 0.5 Fib level was so important once the priice breaks that or is rejected that ususally meant hundreds of pips. Not anymore! Do you agree?

I have dozens more but I think it is enough for now.. Many thanks for taking the time to read, I am sure there are many traders like me out there so you would be helping not only me... I thanks you much in advance...
  • #725,890
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:34am Dec 1, 2012 11:34am
the close was above 2960 62 and 75... but below 302x and 2987... and the year has 1 month left. so we will c what one is the stronger. 2432 or 3594 ish (ypp 3588)... i expect to go to 2846/49 in norm times either way if bullish or bearish, at some point. if we open Sunday below 2960/62 it is more bearish like wise above 2987 or 302x..(last weekend post).. charts on swings are worthless here because of 2962 being here so close to years end.

the current up swing is still in a bear retrace as 2987 was a normal move. at the same time bulls completed a retrace when they went to 2802 earlier this year. then we eventually broke it placing it with the bears and the norm up move (retrace) after. the year close at 2962 is the wild card. because last year the bears missed the retrace to 3594. that one is still valid.. but it may never happen because larger charts, that are valid point to a LL.. less then 2009... and this smaller one points to 2432..

Fridays close is 2985
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #725,891
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:40am Dec 1, 2012 11:40am
Quoting 5percent
The best indicator for price is always price action understanding higher high, lower high, high low, lower high with a little help of fibo and knowing abcd, all the top pros in the banks or chief traders just look at the naked charts and point the areas of concern for the trading room traders, when price is moving heavily in the US session where stock market, futures, options, gold and everything are moving, no one can really anticipate what's going to happen, but price action is there to guide about buy resistance, sell support on areas of concern....
Many thanks mate, I read and re-read your posts and try to understand without a flow...

Naked charts... I love that word not only it makes me think other things but it does make sense in terms of understanding PA. I will try to think the way you are suggesting. And hell yeah...! You are 100% right about trading correlated pairs all at the same time is indeed tough and can cause frustration.

From this post, I seperate "simplicity and naked"... Great responses... Thank you...
  • #725,892
  • Dec 1, 2012 11:46am Dec 1, 2012 11:46am
Quoting gatorinla
the close was above 2960 62 and 75... but below 302x and 2987... and the year has 1 month left. so we will c what one is the stronger. 2432 or 3594 ish (ypp 3588)... i expect to go to 2846/49 in norm times either way if bullish or bearish, at some point. if we open Sunday below 2960/62 it is more bearish like wise above 2987 or 302x..(last weekend post).. charts on swings are worthless here because of 2962 being here so close to years end.

the current up swing is still in a bear retrace as 2987 was a normal move. at the same time bulls completed...
Gator, I recall from one of your previous posts you put the possibility of a bounce after touching 1.2987 a drop to 1.2769 and then a rise up to 1.3090 level then the formation would be fully completed. I have something very similar, the numbers slightly are different, I have 1.3085 ish but then the bears could ride it below 1.2450 easily.

Do you still have that play on the cards...
  • #725,893
  • Edited 12:56pm Dec 1, 2012 11:46am | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting math_GB
Firstly, the part where I marked above is a wise advice for unexperienced dorks like myself. I initally tought that trading 4 pairs at the same time would ease my job and in theory yes it did however my decision making has been badly effected no doubt...

OK, I have to use the opportunity and keep asking a few additional questions by elaborating the case:

- In the morning after getting my daily cafein shot around 6:30 am UK time, I turn the PC on and look what Asia has done during the night. Calculate daily pivot level, fib levels and all...
i give u a plain simple real examples of live set using fibonacci over here. A lower high was created after a top is found, 0.0-23.6 set as a base, 23.6 is created as a lower high, rejection is seen, price is set to go down in matter of time. Risk involved is 0.0-23.6. OCO, buy stop above 0.0 with stop after 23.6, hedging can be done.

The problem is, all these pivot fibo and etc are just numbers, if u seriously take too many things into account, u may never have a good set up or a confident set up. What about orderboards reported? so called offers, bids and etc. The problem lies in that, if a particular fundamental or trend is so strong? would u really naive thinks that bids and offer is there to stand? maybe level 1 -2 of bids is not going to sustain in a downtrend, maybe a level 1- 2 of offers is not going to sustain in an uptrend. If i am a chief dealer of lets say a tier 2 bank, price was quoted to buy 50 billions from 1.3000 by a tier 1 bank, and as soon as i see the market dept and price moving up, as a tier 2 bank with 10 billions on hand to deal, u think i will sell? i would actually buy instead, and try to get myself into breakeven / trailing stops as soon as possible if breakout did not happen in my favor. The tier 1 bank would already created a nice 5 minute bars over 1.3000, my next few actions is to follow the trend! never fight it. and upon hitting 1.3025 reported offers, i may actually want to unload them or trail it to 1.3020 if my entry was 1.3002 etc. and get out and look for a new set up and etc.



remember when eur broken the range 1.2880-1.3170, it went down to 1.2657 area? who would know that the bids at 1.2880 falling support did not stand, and followed by a bear run? , then when price was rejected , it came back as a bull run? and not so experienced/skilled trader went to sell from 1.2750-1.2800 and held their shorts in red and married it for a 200-250 pips into 1.3000? they were fighting trend and a reversal if they did not have stop loss. when a base was formed with a whole range of bulls, u may actually wanted to buy back to 1.2880 from 1.2750 where the daily closed in a pin bar.

i am just sharing a few live examples of how trades can be done easily, do note that any system may or may not work out. technical analysis are there merely to measure risk! not gains. U can determined the risk u want, but u can never determine ur winners, which is why a trader must learn to cut his losers short, and only then try to attempt to nurse his winners by riding longer if the range and breakout permits, if it does not, a trader must learn to take profit, or set positions to be to be risk free. By focusing on bear or bull set up, a trader can be blind, and be biased, any fundamental weather can cause epic reversal or breakout.

take the last eur/usd breakout for example, when eur was trading at 1.20 who would thought to buy? when eur/usd bounced from 1.20-1.2650, who would buy 1.2670? The problem is to know what market u are trading, range? trending? breakout? reversal? and etc, and see if ur system permits, if a system do not permit, its normal for it not to perform, but the trader must know his money and risk management, as system a may not work out during this phase does not means system b may not work out during another quarter, so identify what market and what system can perform are the ways to make money and protect urself against breakout/capital loss.

If u have been trading for years or months and not even able to sustain above breakeven and dd below 10 % or 20% max and keep on blowing accounts over and over again or top up every time with wiring/credit card, then its time for for a trader to step aside from live trading, and study the plain chart with macro- understanding of how price are moving and why they are moving. Too many traders are suffering because they are committing the same mistakes over and over again, as they are in the situation often or not they are blind and biased, only until margin call then they wake up and start blaming. I always recommend a learner to go paper trading and understand the market with a system that suits himself, then only come back to slaughter the others. If not one may just keep bleeding to the market. The brokers always have this mentality, they give u all the bonus/rebates, this and that and etc, and make u happy with the gains u make, but the worst is that most traders do not really know about profit accumulation and profits/account protection/longevity, it can takes months and years of hard work to accumulate gains, and lose only may take week or day or mere seconds when a trader tries to protect his gains and started to over-leverage and then eventually endangering the main capital then into good game.
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  • #725,894
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:03pm Dec 1, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting 5percent
i give u a plain simple real examples of live set using fibonacci over here. A lower high was created after a top is found, 0.0-23.6 set as a base, 23.6 is created as a lower high, rejection is seen, price is set to go down in matter of time. Risk involved is 0.0-23.6. OCO, buy stop above 0.0 with stop after 23.6, hedging can be done.

The problem is, all these pivot fibo and etc are just numbers, if u seriously take too many things into account, u may never have a good set up or a confident set up. What about orderboards reported? so called offers,...

Wauw mate...!!! I really need to read and re-read all of this. Actually would suggest all of us to take the time of these valuable experiences you are sharing...

Yeah who would have tought... When the price reached 1.2450 I remember many were thinking we would dive below 1.20 soon... But then we most of us understood that EUR/USD is not only a currency pair, it is a political instrument as well so there will always be EUR buyers out there somewhere (This last sentence is being nicked from Attila). It is not the EUR strength only, it is the USD weakness.

Great responses mate, ı hope you stay with FF on a daily basis. I really need to digest all the infos you have given here. Thanks a bunch...!
  • #725,895
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:45pm Dec 1, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting ambroni
what is the difference from this 4H chart ...
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  • #725,896
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:15pm Dec 1, 2012 2:15pm
stupid question...mt4

when you hover over a bar (doesn't matter the TF), and you look to the lower right corner for it's values, the time. Is that the time of the bar opening or the time of close?
  • #725,897
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:24pm Dec 1, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting attila
stupid question...mt4

when you hover over a bar (doesn't matter the TF), and you look to the lower right corner for it's values, the time. Is that the time of the bar opening or the time of close?
I think it's opening time. Would help if someone can confirm.
  • #725,898
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting attila
I think it's opening time. Would help if someone can confirm.
It is opening time.
  • #725,899
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting attila
stupid question...mt4

when you hover over a bar (doesn't matter the TF), and you look to the lower right corner for it's values, the time. Is that the time of the bar opening or the time of close?
Attila,

I always considered it as the opening... It made more sense to me but I am not sure now cause you asked.
  • #725,900
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:40pm Dec 1, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting math_GB
Attila,

I always considered it as the opening... It made more sense to me but I am not sure now cause you asked.
it is opening. I compared it on m15 and m5. it seems to fit..
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