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  • #17,241
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:18am Dec 1, 2012 7:18am
Monday we might see a bull
  • #17,242
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:28am Dec 1, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Eric D
So, for the daily time frame as I usually make my analysis there is a chart below, Friday's price action developed into a pinbar formation resting at the Monthly central pivot calculated as the close of November, so it will be valid through December, this level coincides with the mid round number 1.04000 more or less by a couple of pips so that could mean a strong support for the short time trend, as a side note, Fibonacci in this pinbar's tail rates for the 38.2% retracement, theory says it has very good chances of surpassing closest resistance...
I looked into your chart and reevaluated my projection. Will post my 2 cents later.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,243
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:36am Dec 1, 2012 7:36am
Quoting Daytrader74
No, its a cow
Excuse me .......
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,244
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:52am Dec 1, 2012 7:52am
Based on daily chart reading, I'd agree with Tim and alien's views that a test of the LTL is in the cards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-113012-D.JPG Size: 108 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,245
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:56am Dec 1, 2012 7:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on daily chart reading, I'd agree with Tim and alien's views that a test of the LTL is in the cards.
Dont forget on Tuesday there wont be rate cut
  • #17,246
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:56am Dec 1, 2012 7:56am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on daily chart reading, I'd agree with Tim and alien's views that a test of the LTL is in the cards.
The possible scenario could be a pop caused by CNY PMI then followed by a sell-off due to RBA's rate cut.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,247
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:58am Dec 1, 2012 7:58am
Quoting bonus76
Dont forget on Tuesday there wont be rate cut
If so, then a sell-off may occur before Tuesday RBA decision followed by a rally after no cut. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,248
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:07am Dec 1, 2012 8:07am
Quoting DaddyBear
The possible scenario could be a pop caused by CNY PMI then followed by a sell-off due to RBA's rate cut.
You think a rate cut will cause aud to fall only to 1.04??
  • #17,249
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:43am Dec 1, 2012 8:43am
Quoting maximmm
You think a rate cut will cause aud to fall only to 1.04??
No. What I am thinking is a pre-RBA sell-off to 1.034x/1.035x then followed by a rally after no cut. IMO
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,250
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:49am Dec 1, 2012 8:49am
Quoting DaddyBear
I looked into your chart and reevaluated my projection. Will post my 2 cents later.
Glad it helped DB, just what I have seen by the moment, still I am not trading this pair yet since there is not enough confluence for my style.
  • #17,251
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:01am Dec 1, 2012 9:01am
Quoting Eric D
Glad it helped DB, just what I have seen by the moment, still I am not trading this pair yet since there is not enough confluence for my style.
Monday PA will reveal more clues as to which way may occur. Contrary to the fundamental belief that a Doji is a reversal signal, I think it is more like a transition pattern when located at certain locations.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1354369831
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,252
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:06am Dec 1, 2012 9:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
Monday PA will reveal more clues as to which way may occur. Contrary to the fundamental belief that a Doji is a reversal signal, I think it is more like a transition pattern when located at certain locations.
Based on the relation of the green dots support and the red dots resistance, a downward move is more likely to occur first in a daily context at this point.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,253
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:11am Dec 1, 2012 9:11am
Quoting iqyu5an
nice,brief and clear explanation

about the pin bar. a bit different with mine. i run my real account in 2 different broker. one closed at 1.0424 and the other one is 1.0425

this is my daily view ( naked candle ) from one of my brokers. and yes ...this is just for me only and IMHO.

just for sharing and discussion. not a call

1 cent and only
Thank you iqyu5an, yours is also perfectly valid since your style and experience have taught you that way, I'm always open to new perspectives and Ideas, for the difference in closing price, maybe we have different brokers' closing times (I haven't investigated) which is perfectly fine, one should analyse the chart he/she is trading in.

Regarding the resistance in your chart I also think it is valid there, stronger for the longer term (the one on my chart is marked as the latest high, valid on the short term), and considering price broke the Tuesday's OutsideBar formation on Thursday* it might keep plummeting, regards!

*See about that here: http://bit.ly/TvLJJg
  • #17,254
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:15am Dec 1, 2012 9:15am
Quoting DaddyBear
Based on the relation of the green dots support and the red dots resistance, a downward move is more likely to occur first in a daily context at this point.
This concept is illustrated in the chart bellow with projected green and red dots.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,255
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:19am Dec 1, 2012 9:19am
Quoting DaddyBear
This concept is illustrated in the chart bellow.
The EWC is illustrated in the chart below with red letters in a EWP sequence of a-b-A-B-a-b-C.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,256
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:21am Dec 1, 2012 9:21am
Quoting Eric D
Thank you iqyu5an, yours is also perfectly valid since your style and experience have taught you that way, I'm always open to new perspectives and Ideas, for the difference in closing price, maybe we have different brokers' closing times (I haven't investigated) which is perfectly fine, one should analyse the chart he/she is trading in.

Regarding the resistance in your chart I also think it is valid there, stronger for the longer term (the one on my chart is marked as the latest high, valid on the short term), and considering price broke the...
For the sake of practicability here is that chart:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7rS0UPglHn...+01+audusd.gif
  • #17,257
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:26am Dec 1, 2012 9:26am
Quoting DaddyBear
No. What I am thinking is a pre-RBA sell-off to 1.034x/1.035x then followed by a rally after no cut. IMO
Or break a LTL if is a rate cut.
  • #17,258
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:40am Dec 1, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Or break a LTL if is a rate cut.
What I am thinking is that the EWP wave C is incomplete. A surge back to 1.050x should be in the cards. The question is whether a sell-off occurs before or after RBA decision.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,259
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:42am Dec 1, 2012 9:42am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Or break a LTL if is a rate cut.
This scenario cannot be ruled out either at this point. We shall have more clues on Monday.
daddybearforex. com
  • #17,260
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:42am Dec 1, 2012 9:42am
Quoting Tim_isoara
Or break a LTL if is a rate cut.
Can you post your simplified daily EWC?
daddybearforex. com
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