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  • #725,821
  • Nov 30, 2012 10:29pm Nov 30, 2012 10:29pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Euro is going much higher, you will see
1.35 has been screaming at me for many months. The rise before the fall. But........................................................
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,822
  • Nov 30, 2012 10:41pm Nov 30, 2012 10:41pm
Speaking of where "price meets time." With just a couple of more vertical lines. Look out, come April of 2016.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,823
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:05pm Nov 30, 2012 11:05pm
And before I go to bed, a couple of more lines, in even proportion, where the two lines meet up, and see where price "meets" time. Good night, and GL.
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,824
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:18pm Nov 30, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting tashkent
that has been my sentiment for many weeks. but i am never as sure as you are. in this business i would prefer to be like water rather than being ice. at least i will safeguard myself being cut into parts.
EFSF and France downgraded....fiscal cliff looming and some numbers like GDP growth and soon employment change will probably bring a lot downside for risk apatite but as you say in this business nothing is sure.

I am expecting near term Euro and risk currencies to decline......RBA already mention they want USD parity as the Strength of AUD is hindering their growth Rate cut is not out of the question next month.
couple that with being December and portfolio managers close books.....1.2720 years end is not out of the question

but neither is 1.3250 so let see.....


right now 1.30 seems to be fair value.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #725,825
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:18pm Nov 30, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting Kanzler
The most popular methods of TA work because they are the least ambiguous and the most commonly used. When you apply technical analysis in the form of obvious support and resistance levels where price has historically reacted with major swing fib levels and possibly (to a lesser extent) major confirmed trendlines and psychologically significant items such as round numbers (case in point, 1.3000), you have orders stacking up that can absorb market moves preventing price from rising or falling at least temporarily. I'm not sure how you can advocate...
here is the chart, find everything except round numbers. what will happen next? to make this more easy what is the direction? you have 50/50 chance even without looking at the chart: up or down. but you have the chart, candlesticks, SR, TL and can approx. calculate fibo levels with naked eye. so many advantage, isn't it?
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As Above, So Below
  • #725,826
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:29pm Nov 30, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting the redlion
EFSF and France downgraded....fiscal cliff looming and some numbers like GDP growth and soon employment change will probably bring a lot downside for risk apatite but as you say in this business nothing is sure.

I am expecting near term Euro and risk currencies to decline......RBA already mention they want USD parity as the Strength of AUD is hindering their growth Rate cut is not out of the question next month.
couple that with being December and portfolio managers close books.....1.2720 years end is not out of the question

but neither is 1.3250...
all these definitely worth taking into consideration. but for a person who holds his trades max. a week or couple of weeks, fundamentals are not the most important factor. i suppose people who trades strongly fundamentals, hold their trades for months and years and maybe only makes a few trades during that time.
As Above, So Below
  • #725,827
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:30pm Nov 30, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting tashkent
here is the chart, find everything except round numbers. what will happen next? to make this more easy what is the direction? you have 50/50 chance even without looking at the chart: up or down. but you have the chart, candlesticks, SR, TL and can approx. calculate fibo levels with naked eye. so many advantage, isn't it?
That looks like a lower time frame chart; the lower time frames have very few precise levels from what I've observed as they are constantly overrun with volatility and have little opportunity to be recognized in order for buy or sell stacks to accumulate. I trade at lowest 1h charts but prefer 4h; this exposes the most useful levels and the fib levels that people have been able to eye for a while. As mentioned direction is more or less irrelevant to me as I play the key levels alone, unless a major trend line (3 or more distinct touches) is in play.

The attached chart borrowed from another thread illustrates what I'm talking about. But if you insist that these don't work, then I can say I've tried and that it's genuinely your loss. I regularly call these levels within 10 pips. 1.3020 today was one that I climbed aboard before it shot back the other direction with a 10 pip stoploss.

If I may ask, if you claim the market is unpredictable even so much as by playing key levels and reactions, how do you make money trading?
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  • #725,828
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:33pm Nov 30, 2012 11:33pm
Quoting Kanzler
If I may ask, if you claim the market is unpredictable even so much as by playing key levels and reactions, how do you make money trading?
Spot on.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,829
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:37pm Nov 30, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting tashkent
here is the chart, find everything except round numbers. what will happen next? to make this more easy what is the direction? you have 50/50 chance even without looking at the chart: up or down. but you have the chart, candlesticks, SR, TL and can approx. calculate fibo levels with naked eye. so many advantage, isn't it?
Now, take that chart and flip it upside down. What do you see?
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,830
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:42pm Nov 30, 2012 11:42pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Now, take that chart and flip it upside down. What do you see?
Speaking of which. I just flipped my clock over and it showed me the time that I'll be punching out tomorrow, at work. I need to hit the sack. night, night.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #725,831
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:44pm Nov 30, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Speaking of which. I just flipped my clock over and it showed me the time that I'll be punching out tomorrow, at work. I need to hit the sack. night, night.
Sleep well.
  • #725,832
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:53pm Nov 30, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting Kanzler
That looks like a lower time frame chart; the lower time frames have very few precise levels from what I've observed as they are constantly overrun with volatility and have little opportunity to be recognized in order for buy or sell stacks to accumulate. I trade at lowest 1h charts but prefer 4h; this exposes the most useful levels and the fib levels that people have been able to eye for a while. As mentioned direction is more or less irrelevant to me as I play the key levels alone, unless a major trend line (3 or more distinct touches) is in play.

The...
if you have an edge in at least one thing, that is enough not to lose money. if you are very good at what you are stating, i do not doubt you make money. at the same time do not doubt you take losses too. because in market nothing works all the time. i have no right to criticize anybody.
what i want to say is that all these lines does not make sense to me anymore. this is trillions a day market. do you think all who are involved in exchange market drawing those funky colorful lines on charts and waiting to hit the button when price gets there? market is a lot bigger than we think. there are enormous inflow and outflow of money, corporations, tier 1 banks, central banks doing their usual exchange. and they do not do it to make profit (most of the time). they are involved in exchange for many different reasons. do they care about fibo levels or charts with millions of lines? this makes no sense. it is that simple. and then we retail traders sit in this for and try to push the market our way. we draw a line on the top and say, it has to reverse from there. is not that too odd? maybe not to many.
As Above, So Below
  • #725,833
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:10am Dec 1, 2012 12:10am
Quoting tashkent
if you have an edge in at least one thing, that is enough not to lose money. if you are very good at what you are stating, i do not doubt you make money. at the same time do not doubt you take losses too. because in market nothing works all the time. i have no right to criticize anybody.
what i want to say is that all these lines does not make sense to me anymore. this is trillions a day market. do you think all who are involved in exchange market drawing those funky colorful lines on charts and waiting to hit the button when price gets there? market...
This is why I keep things basic and to the most commonly used tools. Nothing works all the time, but these key levels work often enough when combined with other influences such as round numbers, fib levels, trend lines, that they provide a very strong 'edge' (confluence of factors which increases the odds of a zone being noticed).

And yes, I do believe that a large number of big shots are watching these levels and drawing "funky colorful lines", especially when billions of dollars are at stake. Hedge funds are expected to make return on their investments and I can tell you they aren't just hoping for the best! Tier 1 banks have monetary policy to pursue and while I have no evidence for such, it would be hard for me to believe that they just sit there and let price randomly jump all over the place when there are opportunities to manipulate it. Occasionally a bank will even issue a policy that states they will not let the price rise or drop below a certain level; this has happened on the USD/CHF market recently.
  • #725,834
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:21am Dec 1, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Kanzler
This is why I keep things basic and to the most commonly used tools. Nothing works all the time, but these key levels work often enough when combined with other influences such as round numbers, fib levels, trend lines, that they provide a very strong 'edge' (confluence of factors which increases the odds of a zone being noticed).

And yes, I do believe that a large number of big shots are watching these levels and drawing "funky colorful lines", especially when billions of dollars are at stake. Hedge funds are expected to make return on their...
then, probably i was wrong
As Above, So Below
  • #725,835
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:23am Dec 1, 2012 12:23am
Quoting tashkent
then, probably i was wrong
Hey I understand where you're coming from, I really do. I was there not long ago and quit for a while in frustration. But take a look at the charts yourself sometime. It was a real eye opener when I started seeing all these reactions. At first I thought they were just flukes, coming out of the land of indicators and arbitrary price channels etc. If you want to read more, take a look at this thread. Very much worth your time if you have some to donate to reading.
  • #725,836
  • Dec 1, 2012 12:35am Dec 1, 2012 12:35am
Quoting Kanzler
Hey I understand where you're coming from, I really do. I was there not long ago and quit for a while in frustration. But take a look at the charts yourself sometime. It was a real eye opener when I started seeing all these reactions. At first I thought they were just flukes, coming out of the land of indicators and arbitrary price channels etc. If you want to read more, take a look at this thread. Very much worth your time if you have some to donate to reading.
it is in my bookmarks. i have read that all if not mistaken. the are other brilliant threads about trend trading. probably already read many thousands of pages of dozens of good threads. thanks for the link, it is really good thread.
but i want to understand the market deeper. i think there are bigger and important things beyond trendlines. day by day i am more convinced in that, probably one day will find answers to my questions, but until then have no choice but trading what i know right now.
As Above, So Below
  • #725,837
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:38am Dec 1, 2012 3:38am
eurusd twists
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  • #725,838
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:56am Dec 1, 2012 3:56am
Quoting Daytrader74
Euro is going much higher, you will see
kewl, so obama actually called you and told you that fiscal cliff avoidance is a done deal?
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  • #725,839
  • Dec 1, 2012 4:35am Dec 1, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Daytrader74
The euro is going to 1.35 next week
Could someone please tell me what Daytrader wrote... I can't read.. wait I can't smell either.. I think I can now... No, I can't..
  • #725,840
  • Dec 1, 2012 4:46am Dec 1, 2012 4:46am
Quoting math_GB
Could someone please tell me what Daytrader wrote... I can't read.. wait I can't smell either.. I think I can now... No, I can't..
sniff sniff - sheeps', pigs'? nope, hold on i think i've got it...



edit- actually it could, stranger things have happened...

although if a deal is to be brokered, then it's expected the following week, and my guess would be that year end window dressing in equities by the larger funds may well cause some volatility in dollar denominated pairs... could be wrong, let's see...
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