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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #61,961
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:38pm Nov 30, 2012 5:38pm
If you check the Weekly Charts.
The week ended with a "Long Lower Shadow" - Which is considered as "Bullish"
Looking at the weekly charts as well, the momentum gives a tone of a Bullish Pattern, which is highly important for EU to technically correct, in order to fall.
1.3070/80 are the important downtrend line levels, that needs to be touched.
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
  • #61,962
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:08pm Nov 30, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Hello, just thought I'd post a chart and also say

Depending on how this month closes, we may have monthly hidden bearish divergence on the stoch 3,3,3 (my settings)

Also if we cannot pierce 1.3138 next week we will most likely have a weekly hidden bearish divergence.

EU/Daily

EU Monthly
Weekly Buy Fractal & Monthly Hammer off 1.2660 & L/T Confluence zone..
Quarterly Up Fractal resolving divergence..
M/T 1.35 may just be a hiccup en-route to 1.50 again..

EURUSD Quarterly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121201-004403 EURO Quarterly.png Size: 115 KB
  • #61,963
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:16pm Nov 30, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting cdndollar
Weekly Buy Fractal & Monthly Hammer off 1.2660 & L/T Confluence zone..
Quarterly Up Fractal resolving divergence..
M/T 1.35 may just be a hiccup en-route to 1.50 again..

EURUSD Quarterly:
Attachment
im a bull, no way i couldnt be with bullish hidden div on weekly. and yes that fractal too

im long for 1.33

but just as easily it could fail and fall back to 1.22 area creating a perfect double bottom, that would really send us higher. it certainly doesnt need a double bottom though, as we can see in history

pierce of 1.3138 in the coming weeks is going to be crucial, otherwise 1.338 wont be tested (need to pierce to not have a bearish hidden div. on the monthly chart)


see the green cone channel on my chart. the last fall to 1.2660 created that, looks to be a very solid path for EU. Not too much slope, but not too little either.

i suspect it will test 1.33 then fall back into the 1.30 area... then probably higher. just going off of history.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #61,964
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:33pm Nov 30, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
im a bull, no way i couldnt be with bullish hidden div on weekly. and yes that fractal too

im long for 1.33

but just as easily it could fail and fall back to 1.22 area creating a perfect double bottom, that would really send us higher. it certainly doesnt need a double bottom though, as we can see in history

pierce of 1.3138 in the coming weeks is going to be crucial, otherwise 1.338 wont be tested (need to pierce to not have a bearish hidden div. on the monthly chart)


see the green cone channel on my chart. the last fall to 1.2660 created...

With the Dollar & Euro running away from each other under a full head of steam, a 7 figure correction from here is possible.. but not likely before 1.32+ print..

From these levels, a retrace down to 1.2830~00 would inject additional liquidity.. but 1.2800 may be again the support "line in the sand" as in September & October for M/T bulls looking for a retest of 1.32 ~1.35..
  • #61,965
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:49pm Nov 30, 2012 7:49pm
Another Question: What is the effect of the US fiscal cliff solution or catastrophic conclusion? Or has it already been priced in?

If no one told me otherwise, I would say it among other things is the catalyst to push E/U up to the heavens or down to new lows.

Anyone else feel this way?
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #61,966
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:17pm Nov 30, 2012 8:17pm
I will be buying on dips for December.

Why? It's very simple, either Bear Ka-ching first or Bull. It's not that complicated for Einstein to come back to spell it out. But it will be a difficult month for intraday if you didn't get in on the tops or bottoms.

I have long accepted that my personal opinions how the world should be, how the Fed and CBs run the monetary policies and what should those politicians run the world will not change anything simply because of what I think. I don't have $1 trillion on personal level to do as I wish. Winning and losing debates on forums also will not make me a winner or loser BEFORE THE FACTS on the same timeframe.

But to stay as dumb or as smart as how the markets will react to certain conditions should bring me closer to green pips. Let's not forget Euro is second to USD as world funding currency and situations in EZ will not change this fact.

Peace.
  • #61,967
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:26pm Nov 30, 2012 8:26pm
Anybody have a clue why my broker (FXDD) would be 20 pips off of the other quotes?
Attached Image
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,968
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:29pm Nov 30, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting AaronWard
Anybody have a clue why my broker (FXDD) would be 20 pips off of the other quotes?
They have closed early. Market is now at 1.2986.
  • #61,969
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:40pm Nov 30, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting rekon67
They have closed early. Market is now at 1.2986.
thanks rekon, that must be it. They are off on all the other crosses to. Well, I have to say that is good news.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #61,970
  • Edited 5:16am Dec 1, 2012 4:54am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting 100PipsADay
Obviously more QE weakens the USD. But maybe that is not the question. The real question for this thread is who's currency will drop faster given the current situations?

EUR - Problems in Europe
USD - Printing frenzy by the FED

It is hard to say which will have a more dramatic effect on one's currency.

I agree that my original post in regards to more aggressive QE is "speculative" but it is backed by sound reasoning and uses historical evidence. The "fiscal cliff" fiasco is also somewhat speculative as we don't know exactly...
1. YEN.

2. USD.

3. EURO - When Europeans realized it has become too expensive for the nations then ECB can function as FED, BOJ and the rest of CBs. Germany should lead the way to Fiscal Unions.

4. Equilibrium will be reached. US becomes the largest Energy source in the world. Traders will be happy with 20-50 pips range as in EUR/CHF.

5. Says my crystal ball.
  • #61,971
  • Dec 1, 2012 5:27am Dec 1, 2012 5:27am
Something to pass along.
Trading Pyschology
"The Way of the Hunter Warrior"
Julian Snyder
1982
As i think we are entering a period of stagflation in highest likelyhood, this book presents a mindset that was a worthwhile way to deal with this issue. Written right after a similar period it also clearly presents the mechanism that underlies the phenomena of stagflation. The Author refers to it as stop go economic policies.

Since the mind is also a spiritual creature, have recently been listening to native american song to reawaken the Hunter Warrior within. Something that is of ancient origin but that gets submerged by modern living.

Trading benefits from alignment of method and mindset.
  • #61,972
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:35am Dec 1, 2012 7:35am
Would also add the following book by Ruth Roosevelt
"Mind Power
Thought Techniques for High Powered Trading"

Beyond ones method is the thought process that drives ones results.
The subconscious part of the mind greatly/mostly influences the decision making that yields what happens in trading.
Know Thyself, is more then a cliche, it is the area that the problems and the solutions to what affects the output from the mind originate.
  • #61,973
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:54am Dec 1, 2012 7:54am
Quoting AaronWard
thanks rekon, that must be it. They are off on all the other crosses to. Well, I have to say that is good news.

look here to get the most recent quotes:

www.xe.com
  • #61,974
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:16am Dec 1, 2012 8:16am
weekly techs looks like we have a massive head and shoulders forming...it seems we need a break and close below 1.2650 or so to invalidate that and a nice confirmation for bears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU weekly.png Size: 16 KB
  • #61,975
  • Dec 1, 2012 9:17am Dec 1, 2012 9:17am
IF the identified Inv. H&S plays out, bears have nothing to worry about. It's a play ground and getting the feet wet for winter salmons
  • #61,976
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:01pm Dec 1, 2012 2:01pm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1037...cro_view&ifp=0

A nice concise view of E/U in the above article @ Seekingalpha. Does anyone know what "swap rate differentials" he's talking about though? Not quite exactly sure what is meant by this "differential of the E/U interest rate swaps" ...(I'll assume for now it's simply the differential between ECB & FED interest rates), but however it's arrived at the divergence in the chart included certainly looks enticing for the bears...anyway nice short simple article worth a read.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #61,977
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:21pm Dec 1, 2012 2:21pm
Thanks CommercialB good article. A struggle between the divergence of IR swaps & E price vs. the technicals of an inverse H&S pattern. I always believed that the Fundos are the catalyst of Techs but its a bizarre CB world anymore.
Trade smaller than rational because the market is irrational...
  • #61,978
  • Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm Dec 1, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting CommercialB
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1037...cro_view&ifp=0

A nice concise view of E/U in the above article @ Seekingalpha. Does anyone know what "swap rate differentials" he's talking about though? Not quite exactly sure what is meant by this "differential of the E/U interest rate swaps" ...(I'll assume for now it's simply the differential between ECB & FED interest rates), but however it's arrived at the divergence in the chart included certainly...
That article is opinionated and subjective. That's up to you which side you want to take.

Re swap rate, on the contrary, it's more attractive to long (carry trade) instead of short due to swap rate differential. Short - pay the negative swap; long - positive swap because USD interest rate < EUR. This does not mean anything for swap free mini accounts.
  • #61,979
  • Edited 6:08pm Dec 1, 2012 3:17pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting Ken A
That article is opinionated and subjective. That's up to you which side you want to take.

Re swap rate, on the contrary, it's more attractive to long (carry trade) instead of short due to swap rate differential. Short - pay the negative swap; long - positive swap because USD interest rate < EUR. This does not mean anything for swap free mini accounts.
Thanks also Eurotrader ..sure there's an inverse H&S in there too so we just have to try and consider all the options before committing.

@ Ken A .. not quite sure about the opinionated bit but the article was certainly subjective as are most views out there btw, and we just take them on that basis and try to filter them out as we can. Getting back to my original query re the swap rate differentials he was talking about, I understand how longing E/U is more attractive for currency traders due to EUR% > USD%, but is this what was being addressed in the article is what I wanted to know, eg firstly, how does he arrive at that orange line with current value 0.0385, and secondly what significance has the divergence between it and the E/U spot price since Aug/Sept and by inference what is the liklihood of the historic correlation between the two being re-established soon?
...I just love that graph if only I could understand exactly what is meant by it ...brings out nice bearish hibernation feelings in me and just in time for Xmas too! .... I know I know, shouldn't be biased!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #61,980
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:21pm Dec 1, 2012 3:21pm
Quoting lumesh
weekly techs looks like we have a massive head and shoulders forming...it seems we need a break and close below 1.2650 or so to invalidate that and a nice confirmation for bears.
Inverse or Normal H & S always breaks out the Neckline First.. before reversing or continuing a trend.
Currently the price pattern has not broken out the neckline as yet. It has completed the Right Shoulder, and as per the Weekly Candle, bullish pattern exists.
Classical chart patterns of currencies from 15+ Year Pro Trader
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